U.S. President Donald Trump announced tariffs on eight European countries tied to a dispute over Greenland, prompting President of the European Council, António Costa, and EU ambassadors to meet urgently on Sunday and leaders to promise a coordinated response. Brussels and several national leaders warned the measures threaten transatlantic relations; the European Parliament has signalled it will not advance a pending EU–US trade deal while tensions escalate. The political uncertainty could stall trade policy and affect exporters and markets; business owners and exporters should monitor developments closely.

Update: Multiple outlets (RTP, POLITICO Europe, ECO) report French President Emmanuel Macron pressed EU leaders to activate the bloc’s anti‑coercion instrument if Washington imposes the threatened surtaxes; the tool would require a qualified majority of member states to be deployed and is meant as a legal-political deterrent. Markets, exporters and import‑dependent businesses should monitor diplomatic developments and any concrete EU measures that could affect trade flows.

The Canadian rating agency DBRS left Portugal's credit rating unchanged at its recent review and kept the outlook stable, citing continued fiscal progress and a path to a budget surplus in 2025. Outlets note this follows DBRS's upgrade to 'A (high)' last year and is consistent with other recent assessments of Portuguese public finances. Borrowers, investors and anyone monitoring mortgage or bond markets should see this as a sign of continued credit stability.

ECO reports the Euribor moved higher for the three‑ and six‑month tenors while the 12‑month rate fell; the three‑month rose to 2.033%, the six‑month to 2.143% and the 12‑month stood at 2.248%. These short‑term oscillations can influence variable‑rate mortgages and refinancing costs in the weeks ahead. Mortgage holders and prospective buyers should check loan indexation clauses and lender notices for immediate impacts.

With the Eurogroup set to choose the ECB vice-president on Monday, former Portuguese central bank governor Mário Centeno—one of two front-runners—says there remains a lack of alignment among major EU countries. Speaking to PÚBLICO, Centeno urges reaffirmation of the reasons for his candidacy and signals that political negotiations, policy priorities and regulatory direction will be decisive in the appointment. The comments frame the contest as both a balance-of-power and policy-choice moment for the ECB’s future leadership.

The Recuperar Portugal mission structure said the eighth payment request under the Recovery and Resilience Plan (PRR) — submitted to Brussels in November 2025 — is expected to be paid in February. The announcement gives a tentative timeline for a tranche of EU funds that support national investments under the PRR framework. Project managers and local authorities awaiting PRR cashflows should note the projected month and prepare for administrative steps tied to the payment.

Financial reporting shows the three‑month Euribor remained at 2.016%, while the six‑ and 12‑month rates rose to about 2.146% and 2.251% respectively, widening the curve between short and longer terms. The moves reflect daily money‑market shifts and will influence variable‑rate mortgage costs and short-term borrowing pricing. Mortgage holders should note modest upward pressure on medium/longer reset periods and check how their lender calculates variable payments.

INE confirmed annual inflation eased to 2.3% in 2025, a 0.1 percentage‑point drop from 2024; food was the largest contributor to price increases over the year. The data come from the Consumer Price Index as compiled by the National Institute of Statistics (Instituto Nacional de Estatística or INE). For residents balancing household budgets, slower headline inflation may ease pressure but food-price rises mean grocery bills remain important to monitor.

Outlets report small day-to-day Euribor shifts: three- and six-month Euribor rates rose slightly while the 12-month rate fell or eased marginally, with published short-term averages around 2.02–2.05% (three-month), ~2.13% (six-month) and roughly 2.25% (12-month) depending on the source. The changes are modest but relevant for borrowers with products indexed to short-term Euribor: expats with variable-rate mortgages or loans should check how their lender updates payments and consider whether a switch to a fixed rate or lender review is advisable.

New data from Portugal's Survey on Living Conditions and Income show one region has the country's highest incidence of monetary poverty, with 17.9% of residents living below the poverty threshold. Analysts and local actors attribute the rise to a combination of state neglect, insufficient social-protection measures, the growth of precarious immigration and unstable work, and wider cost-of-living pressures — factors that together depress incomes and worsen social indicators. The figures point to a need for targeted regional policies on social security, employment quality and integration to reverse the trend.

JP Morgan analysts Aditya Chordia and Matteo Mamprin assign a roughly 50% probability that Moody’s will upgrade Portugal’s sovereign credit rating at its scheduled review in May, putting an upgrade within about four and a half months. The bank’s view reflects an assessment that Portugal’s improving economic fundamentals, fiscal position and lower borrowing costs have materially strengthened its credit profile, reducing downside risks. An upgrade as soon as May would tighten financing spreads, reinforce investor confidence and mark another step in Portugal’s long post‑crisis recovery; market participants should monitor sovereign metrics and rating signals in the run‑up to the review.

The National Institute of Statistics (INE) will reassess in March the classification of Novobanco's dividends, potentially allowing that income to be recognised in last year’s national accounts. If reclassified to count towards the previous budget balance, the adjustment could provide an extra boost to help the Portuguese Government meet or exceed its 0.3% surplus target for 2025. The move would alter headline fiscal metrics, affect timing of revenue recognition in national accounts, and carry implications for public finance reporting, investor perceptions and future treatment of similar banking transactions.

Official data show exports from Portuguese-speaking (Lusophone) countries to China fell 4% in the first 11 months of 2025 compared with the same period in 2024. The decline signals cooling Chinese demand and possible shifts in commodity prices or trade composition that weigh on economies exposed to Chinese markets. Policymakers and exporters will be watching full-year figures and country-level performance for signs of a sustained trend and potential policy or market responses.

Real-time analytical coverage of financial markets and economic developments on 6 January, including market moves, key data releases and macro indicators. Commentary focuses on consumer confidence and cost pressures, investor sentiment and flows, implications for investors and expat households, and the significance of today’s indicators for policy and markets.

In 2024 remittances from Venezuela to Portugal amounted to €9.8 million, a 15% decline on the previous year. The fall signals shifts in diaspora financial flows and can serve as an economic indicator of changing expatriate activity and cross‑border ties between the two countries.

Portugal’s stock market posted its strongest annual performance since 2009, driving an aggregate increase of more than €2.5 billion in the value of the country’s largest stock-market fortunes. Broad gains across most listed shares lifted prominent families — notably the Azevedo family — and highlighted the market’s role as an economic indicator for investors and expats. The move suggests improved investor confidence and greater wealth concentration among major shareholders, with implications for portfolio strategies and domestic capital flows in 2025.

Road fatalities and related casualties cost an estimated €1.5 billion in 2025, while overall road casualty levels have effectively returned to 2016 figures. The year saw more collisions and a rise in injuries, maintaining pressure on emergency services and the healthcare system and undermining public safety. Economically, the persistent casualty rate represents a significant indirect and direct cost that acts as a negative indicator for public finances and productivity. The pattern suggests a need for renewed, targeted prevention measures, enhanced enforcement and investment in safer infrastructure to reverse the trend and reduce both human and fiscal costs.