The US Federal Reserve is set to decide on monetary policy this Wednesday, the 18th, in its first meeting since the conflict with Iran, which has driven up energy prices. Analysts expect interest rates to remain unchanged. The Fed and the European Central Bank are both meeting this week amidst heightened Middle East tensions, including the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which has increased market volatility. While the Fed is expected to maintain its current stance, focus remains on updated economic projections and comments from Chair Jerome Powell regarding future rate paths.
The price of Brent crude for May delivery fell by more than 2% this Wednesday, the 18th, though it remained around 100 dollars per barrel, following an agreement between Kurdistan and Iraq to resume oil flows. At 7:30 am today (6:30 am in mainland Portugal), Brent crude was down 2.41%, trading at 100.93 dollars per barrel, according to Bloomberg data. Similarly, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was down 3.73% at that time, trading at 92.62 dollars. The previous day, crude prices had risen again due to the ongoing blockade of traffic in the Strait of Hormuz and the refusal of several NATO allies to intervene in the passage, despite a request from US President Donald Trump. Iraq announced in the last few hours that it will resume part of its oil exports, totaling 250,000 barrels per day, transported by pipeline to a Turkish port, following an agreement with the authorities of Iraqi Kurdistan. With the war in the Middle East triggered on February 28 by the Israeli-American offensive against Iran, Iraq had completely halted its exports and authorities were seeking alternatives to the Strait of Hormuz. The Kurdistan Ministry of Natural Resources confirmed in a statement that operations began at 06:30 local time (03:30 Lisbon time) for the export of oil 'through the Kurdistan pipeline to the Turkish port of Ceyhan'. Iranian attacks on oil tankers and other oil infrastructure, in retaliation for the Israeli-American attack launched on February 28, have practically paralyzed navigation through the strait, preventing producing countries like Iraq from moving their production. The United States and Israel launched a military attack on Iran on February 28, which they justified by the Islamic Republic's inflexibility in negotiations to end uranium enrichment as part of its nuclear program, which it claims is intended only for civilian purposes. In retaliation, Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz and launched attacks against targets in Israel, US bases, and other infrastructure in countries in the region such as Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Kuwait, Lebanon, Jordan, Oman, and Iraq. Incidents involving Iranian projectiles were also recorded in Cyprus, Turkey, and Azerbaijan. Brent crude oil price falls slightly but remains around 100 dollars per barrel.
Small regional events reverberate globally, making the interpretation of indirect signs an even more relevant and essential tool for anticipating trends and decisions that will shape the future. Opinion by João Ferreira da Cruz
The metallurgical and steel sector will grow 1.1% in Europe in 2026, which represents a slowdown, despite the EU having implemented measures to promote local industry.
The US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank are set to decide on monetary policy this week against the backdrop of the war in the Middle East, which has raised inflation concerns. However, analysts expect interest rates to remain unchanged. While the Fed is expected to maintain its current stance, the ECB may adopt a more vigilant tone due to energy price volatility. Market attention will be focused on updated economic projections and press conferences from Jerome Powell and Christine Lagarde.
The European Union's foreign policy chief, Kaja Kallas, believes it is necessary to find diplomatic means to keep the Strait of Hormuz open, while US President Donald Trump asks allies to send warships to ensure the security of transit amidst the war in Iran. The price of Brent crude for May delivery opened higher again today, with a sharp increase of over 4%, approaching 105 dollars per barrel.
The price of Brent crude for May delivery opened higher again today, with a sharp increase of over 4%, approaching 105 dollars per barrel. Crude prices rose again, affected by tensions stemming from the war in Iran and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. The US president says the war will end “soon”, but not this week.
The price of a barrel of Brent crude oil for May delivery ended today on the London futures market down 2.84%, but remained above one hundred dollars, specifically at 100.21.
The price of a barrel of Brent crude oil for May delivery ended today on the London futures market down 2.84%, but remained above one hundred dollars, specifically at 100.21.
Economist Filipe Grilo highlights that “the issue of the war [in Iran] ending now, the Strait [of Hormuz] opening, and everything being fine again is not going to happen.”
OECD GDP growth for 2025 remained at 1.8%, while G20 growth rose slightly to 3.4% from 3.2% in 2024, according to initial annual estimates released by the OECD on Monday, the 16th. In a statement, the OECD noted that among G20 countries with available data, India recorded the highest annual growth (7.5%), followed by Indonesia (5.1%) and China (5.0%), while Italy (0.2%) and Germany (0.5%) recorded the lowest. On a quarterly basis compared to the same quarter of the previous year, G20 GDP grew by 3.2% in the fourth quarter of 2025. OECD inflation slowed to 3.3% in January, with prices 35% above pre-COVID levels.
The price of oil has never been just a logistical cost variable or an indicator of pressure at fuel pumps; by 2026, it has consolidated itself as the most sophisticated mechanism for the redistribution of power and capital on a global scale. While Brent fluctuates at levels that punish importing economies, the conventional narrative focuses, almost obsessively, ...
The president of the ProPública - Law and Citizenship Association praises the measure but warns that it will take time. Agostinho Pereira de Miranda states that the EU 'has not learned enough' from Ukraine.
The price of Brent crude, the European benchmark, rose more than 2% by 08:22 and was trading above 105 dollars before the opening of European stock markets. Brent prices briefly exceeded 106 dollars at the market opening this Monday, the 16th, but later moderated to 105 dollars. European markets are pointing towards mixed openings today, with slight declines in Madrid and London, and gains of up to 0.4% in Frankfurt, Paris, and Milan. Meanwhile, the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude, the American benchmark, rose 1.7% to 98.57 dollars per barrel. US President Donald Trump warned on Sunday that NATO faces a 'very bad future' if allies do not cooperate to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic waterway for international oil trade blocked by Iranian forces. The International Energy Agency (IEA) decided last week to release 400 million barrels from its strategic reserves to help ease oil price tensions. Crude prices remain volatile due to expectations of a prolonged oil war and ongoing issues in the Strait of Hormuz, where several tankers have been attacked.
We are entering the third week of the war and the only certainty is that Iran's retaliation has caused an energy crisis, with a barrel of oil above 100 dollars. In this ‘Expresso da Manhã’, Paulo Baldaia talks to Bruno Cardoso Reis, a researcher at the ISCTE Centre for International Studies and a SIC commentator, about the conflict.
Economist Filipe Grilo previews what we can expect from the European Central Bank, taking into account the instability the global economy is experiencing due to the escalation of the war in the Middle East.
The European Investment Bank (EIB) Group increased its lending to Portugal by 43% in 2025, reaching three billion euros. EIB President Nadia Calviño and Finance Minister (Ministro das Finanças) Joaquim Miranda Sarmento announced that 1.5 billion euros is specifically earmarked for social and affordable housing. Other major investments include nearly one billion euros for the high-speed rail project between Porto and Lisbon. Those seeking affordable housing should note that these funds aim to increase supply across the country quickly.
Joaquim Miranda Sarmento is Portugal’s Finance Minister who gave a hearing before the Budget, Finance and Public Administration Committee about fiscal measures affecting housing. His remarks matter to expats because finance ministry decisions — like exemptions and public guarantees for young homebuyers — influence the property market, taxes and programmes that can affect housing affordability.
The European Investment Bank (Banco Europeu de Investimento or BEI) is the lending arm of the European Union, owned by its member states. It provided €1.9 billion in financing to Portugal in 2023, focusing on sustainable transport and energy projects. Residents interested in Portugal's economic development should note its role in funding large-scale public and private infrastructure.
Nadia Calviño is the President of the European Investment Bank (EIB), a role she assumed in January 2024. Before leading the EIB, she was Spain's First Vice President and Minister for Economy and Digital Transformation. Those following European economic policy should note her influence on how the EU funds climate and infrastructure projects in the euro area.
European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde has pledged to take all necessary measures to maintain inflation control amid concerns over rising energy prices, distinguishing the current economic climate from the volatility of 2022 and 2023.
Eurogroup President Kyriakos Pierrakakis has warned that the eurozone must brace for a prolonged period of economic instability driven by geopolitical conflicts, rising energy costs, and persistent inflationary pressures.
In 2023, Portugal ranks among the EU countries with the lowest purchasing power, with its average annual income allowing for the purchase of only 11 baskets of essential goods, significantly less than the 24 baskets that can be afforded by an average Luxembourger. This disparity highlights the economic challenges faced by Portuguese residents, particularly in the context of rising housing costs.
The EU has responded firmly to President Trump’s announcement of tariffs on several European countries over the Greenland dispute, expressing solidarity with Denmark and warning of a “dangerous spiral” that could damage transatlantic relations and even lead to suspension of parts of the trade agreement with the US. France, Sweden and the UK have rejected intimidation and pledged a coordinated European response, while the President of the European Council is coordinating a joint position and EU leaders have convened an emergency meeting to weigh diplomatic, economic and political options.
With the Eurogroup set to choose the ECB vice-president on Monday, former Portuguese central bank governor Mário Centeno—one of two front-runners—says there remains a lack of alignment among major EU countries. Speaking to PÚBLICO, Centeno urges reaffirmation of the reasons for his candidacy and signals that political negotiations, policy priorities and regulatory direction will be decisive in the appointment. The comments frame the contest as both a balance-of-power and policy-choice moment for the ECB’s future leadership.
