IMF forecasts 1.3% growth in the euro area in 2026 and 1.4% in 2027
Growth is expected to be driven by investment in Germany and strong performances in Spain and Ireland.
Tariffs: European stock markets fall and gold reaches record high amid Trump's threat
Tensions over Greenland and Trump’s threat to impose new customs duties on European goods have rekindled fears of a new trade war between Europe and the United States.
Eurostat trims euro‑area inflation estimate to 1.9%
Eurostat revised its preliminary estimate for eurozone year‑on‑year inflation in December down to 1.9% (from a previous 2.0%), while the EU average was 2.3%. The downward revision suggests softer price pressures at the end of the year and may feed into European Central Bank discussions on interest‑rate settings. Consumers and borrowers should watch whether lower inflation alters borrowing costs or indexation clauses on rents and contracts.
Eurostat is the statistical office of the European Union that collects, harmonises and publishes data on inflation, employment, trade and other socio-economic indicators across EU countries. It reported the eurozone's year-on-year inflation at 1.9% in December 2025 (revising down from 2.0%) and 2.3% for the whole EU — data used by central banks and governments when setting policy.
The European Central Bank (ECB) is the central bank for the euro area responsible for setting interest rates, maintaining price stability and overseeing banking supervision across euro‑zone countries. The vice‑president is a senior policymaker at the ECB, so a nomination from Portugal would increase Portuguese influence on decisions that affect mortgages, savings and inflation across the euro area.
IMF predicts growth of 1.3% in the eurozone in 2026 and 1.4% in 2027
Looking at the countries for which the IMF provided forecasts, Germany is expected to grow by 1.1% this year and 1.5% next year.
Eurostat revises Eurozone inflation for December down to 1.9%
After all, the Eurozone's year-on-year inflation rate eased to 1.9% in December, rather than the 2% reported by Eurostat in the first estimate released on 7 January. The new data published this Monday thus show a downward revision of 0.1 percentage points, meaning that the rise in prices in ...
IMF raises forecast for global growth to 3.3% in 2026
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised upwards its forecast for global economic growth to 3.3% in 2026, according to the report published today.
Stock markets in the red as tensions between the US and Europe escalate
European markets opened lower on Monday, with the Euro Stoxx 600 down 1.24%. Trump threatens to impose 10% tariffs (rising to 25% in June) on European countries that do not support the 'sale' of Greenland to the US.
IMF raises global forecast; eurozone growth remains modest
The International Monetary Fund raised its global growth forecast for 2026 to 3.3% in an updated World Economic Outlook, citing strength in the US and China. The IMF expects the euro area to expand by about 1.3% in 2026 and 1.4% in 2027, a modest pace that could limit regional export demand even as global activity lifts markets. Portuguese exporters and investors should monitor sector‑specific outlooks and exchange‑rate effects, while business owners may face mixed signals for demand and financing costs.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is a global organisation that monitors the world economy, provides policy advice, and offers financial support and technical assistance to its member countries; it is led by Kristalina Georgieva. Its forecasts and reports influence markets and national policies — for example, the IMF recently raised its 2026 global growth forecast to about 3.0%.
The World Economic Outlook (WEO) is the IMF’s flagship report that provides global and country-level economic forecasts, analysis, and policy commentary used by governments, investors and analysts. In the latest update published this Monday the WEO revised up its 2026 global growth forecast to roughly 3.0%, a figure watched closely by markets and policymakers.
5 things that will shape the day
This Monday, Eurostat will take the pulse of inflation in the Eurozone and the European Union. Meanwhile, the Eurogroup will discuss who will succeed De Guindos as Vice‑President of the ECB. The 56th edition of the World Economic Forum's annual meeting in Davos also gets under way. Also marking the day is the release of the World ...
Eurogroup chooses ECB vice-president today in an uncertain race
This week’s Eurogroup meeting is special for several reasons. First, Bulgaria’s finance minister will be present for the first time, after the country adopted the euro on 1 January this year. Second, it will mark the debut of Greek Kyriakos Pierrakakis as president of the Eurogroup. Third, ...
Macron urges EU anti‑coercion response to US tariffs
U.S. President Donald Trump announced tariffs on eight European countries tied to a dispute over Greenland, prompting President of the European Council, António Costa, and EU ambassadors to meet urgently on Sunday and leaders to promise a coordinated response. Brussels and several national leaders warned the measures threaten transatlantic relations; the European Parliament has signalled it will not advance a pending EU–US trade deal while tensions escalate. The political uncertainty could stall trade policy and affect exporters and markets; business owners and exporters should monitor developments closely.
Update: Multiple outlets (RTP, POLITICO Europe, ECO) report French President Emmanuel Macron pressed EU leaders to activate the bloc’s anti‑coercion instrument if Washington imposes the threatened surtaxes; the tool would require a qualified majority of member states to be deployed and is meant as a legal-political deterrent. Markets, exporters and import‑dependent businesses should monitor diplomatic developments and any concrete EU measures that could affect trade flows.
- President of the European Council (since Dec 2024)
- Former Prime Minister of Portugal (November 2015 – April 2024)
- Party: Socialist Party (PS) Partido Socialista
- He is of Portuguese and Indian (Goan) descent
António Luís Santos da Costa (born July 17, 1961, in Lisbon) is a Portuguese lawyer and Socialist politician who served as Prime Minister of Portugal from 2015-2024 and currently serves as President of the European Council since December 1, 2024. After leading the Lisbon Municipal Assembly and practicing law, he was elected MEP (2004-2005) and entered parliament in 2002. He led the Socialist Party from 2014-2024, building unprecedented parliamentary coalitions with the Communist Party and Left Bloc (2015-2019) before winning an absolute majority in 2022. He resigned as PM in November 2023 following a corruption investigation, though subsequently cleared. The 27 EU member states elected him Council President in June 2024, making him the fourth full-time President and the first southern European socialist in that role.
Political Philosophy:
Costa represents moderate European social democracy, combining orthodox fiscal responsibility with progressive social investment. He prioritizes European integration, consensus-building, and pragmatic compromise over ideological confrontation. As Council President, he champions mediation between member states, improved EU inter-institutional relations, shorter decision-making processes, and regular visits to every EU capital to reconnect citizens with European institutions. His approach emphasizes "creative bridges" reconciling divergent interests while maintaining firmness on European values, particularly regarding Ukraine.
The term refers broadly to negotiations or arrangements between the European Union and the United States to manage tariffs, market access and trade disputes; there is no single comprehensive EU–US free-trade agreement, so relations are handled through sectoral deals, WTO rules and ad‑hoc talks. Tariffs or threats of tariffs (the recent row that prompted Brussels to warn about damage to transatlantic ties) can raise prices, disrupt supply chains and prompt coordinated EU responses or reciprocal measures, which is why EU capitals are sensitive to any escalation.
The EU anti‑coercion instrument is a tool the European Union agreed in 2021 that lets the bloc adopt targeted countermeasures (such as tariffs, trade restrictions or other trade-related measures) in response to economic pressure from third countries. Activating it in response to threats of U.S. tariff surcharges would allow the EU to coordinate a collective reaction that could affect trade flows, prices and businesses across member states.
Emmanuel Macron is the President of France, first elected in 2017 and re‑elected in 2022, and is associated with the centrist Renaissance movement. He is engaging European counterparts about using EU tools like the anti‑coercion instrument to respond to international trade threats.
In the EU Council context, a qualified majority means approval by at least 55% of member states representing at least 65% of the EU population (the standard since the Lisbon Treaty). It’s a higher threshold than a simple majority but lower than unanimity; decisions taken by qualified majority can authorise actions such as activating the EU’s anti‑coercion instrument, so businesses and travellers should watch Council votes when trade measures are at stake.
The European Council (Conselho Europeu) brings together EU heads of state or government to set the bloc’s overall political direction and priorities; it does not adopt ordinary legislation. Its president, Charles Michel, has chaired meetings since December 2019, and the Council’s political endorsement is important for major trade and investment deals, so those following EU policy should note its stance on agreements like the EU–Mercosur deal.
Mercosur: Brazil foresees an impact of six billion euros
Meeting with Lula precedes signing in Asunción. The trade agreement will eliminate tariffs on 91% of European exports and 92% of South American exports, benefiting the automotive and agri-food sectors.
Weak growth in Europe concerns economists
A World Economic Forum report points to moderate growth in the US and weak growth in Europe. Trade between China and the US is expected to remain stable despite tariffs in 2025.
5 things that will shape the day
This Friday will be marked by DBRS's review of Portugal's credit rating; the visits of the Presidents of the European Council and the European Commission to Brazil; President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa's meeting with the President of Estonia, Alar Karis; and the release by Statistics Portugal (INE) of key figures for December 2025, ...
Centeno: 'There is still a lack of alignment among the major countries' in the race for the ECB
With the Eurogroup set to choose the ECB vice-president on Monday, former Portuguese central bank governor Mário Centeno—one of two front-runners—says there remains a lack of alignment among major EU countries. Speaking to PÚBLICO, Centeno urges reaffirmation of the reasons for his candidacy and signals that political negotiations, policy priorities and regulatory direction will be decisive in the appointment. The comments frame the contest as both a balance-of-power and policy-choice moment for the ECB’s future leadership.
Fitch warns that the end of NATO could lead to rating downgrades in Europe
The credit rating agency Fitch warned today that European countries could face rating downgrades if tensions between the United States and Denmark and between the United States and Greenland lead to the end of NATO.
Portugal and Ireland are the EU countries where state aid accounts for the smallest share of GDP
EU data indicate that Portugal and Ireland have the lowest levels of state aid relative to GDP among member states — government support represents a smaller proportion of their economies than in other EU countries.
Russian oil price cap set at US$44.10 in February
From 1 February, the new maximum limit for the price of Russian crude oil is US$44.10 per barrel, the European Commission said in a press release issued this Thursday. The G7 Oil Price Cap Coalition (the seven largest economies in the world) established a mechanism to ...
Euro area external trade surplus falls to €9.9 billion in November
The euro area's external trade balance surplus declined to €9.9 billion in November.
Euro area external trade surplus falls to €9.9bn in November
The euro area’s external trade surplus fell 37.5% year‑on‑year to €9.9bn in November 2025, down from €15.4bn a year earlier, Eurostat reports today.
Recuperar Portugal expects eighth PRR payment in February
The Recuperar Portugal mission structure said the eighth payment request under the Recovery and Resilience Plan (PRR) — submitted to Brussels in November 2025 — is expected to be paid in February. The announcement gives a tentative timeline for a tranche of EU funds that support national investments under the PRR framework. Project managers and local authorities awaiting PRR cashflows should note the projected month and prepare for administrative steps tied to the payment.
The Recovery and Resilience Plan (Plano de Recuperação e Resiliência) is Portugal's national programme under the EU's NextGenerationEU to fund reforms and investments after COVID‑19; the plan includes roughly €16.6 billion in grants plus about €2.7 billion in loans approved in 2021. Payments are tied to specific milestones and targets — which the government said it is politically committed to meet — so missed milestones can delay projects and funding that affect public works, contractors and local services.
Recover Portugal (Recuperar Portugal) is the national mission structure set up to coordinate, monitor and manage Portugal's implementation of the Recovery and Resilience Plan, including preparing payment requests to the European Commission. The mission said the eighth payment request submitted in November 2025 is expected to be paid in February 2026, so businesses, contractors and municipalities waiting for PRR funds should follow its announcements.
Industrial production rises by more than 2% in the EU and the euro area in November
Industrial output in both the European Union and the euro area increased by over 2% in November, according to official data.
Related videos
8m
8m