Latest news and stories about economic indicator in finance in Portugal for expats and residents.
The EU has responded firmly to President Trump’s announcement of tariffs on several European countries over the Greenland dispute, expressing solidarity with Denmark and warning of a “dangerous spiral” that could damage transatlantic relations and even lead to suspension of parts of the trade agreement with the US. France, Sweden and the UK have rejected intimidation and pledged a coordinated European response, while the President of the European Council is coordinating a joint position and EU leaders have convened an emergency meeting to weigh diplomatic, economic and political options.

Meeting with Lula precedes signing in Asunción. The trade agreement will eliminate tariffs on 91% of European exports and 92% of South American exports, benefiting the automotive and agri-food sectors.

DBRS has kept Portugal's sovereign debt rating unchanged but removed any prospect of an upgrade, signalling it does not expect improvement in the near term.
The Canadian rating agency DBRS left Portugal's credit rating unchanged at its recent review and kept the outlook stable, citing continued fiscal progress and a path to a budget surplus in 2025. Outlets note this follows DBRS's upgrade to 'A (high)' last year and is consistent with other recent assessments of Portuguese public finances. Borrowers, investors and anyone monitoring mortgage or bond markets should see this as a sign of continued credit stability.
DBRS Morningstar is a Canadian credit-rating agency that assesses sovereign and corporate creditworthiness; its ratings influence investor confidence and borrowing costs. In January 2025 DBRS upgraded Portugal to A (high) with a stable outlook, kept that rating in a July 2025 review, and most recently chose not to change it — a signal that creditors see Portugal’s finances as relatively solid.

A comparison shows consumers paid €61 less for the same set of products four years ago.

The Lisbon stock exchange ended today’s session in positive territory, with the PSI rising 0.43% to 8,639.05 points, bucking the trend of most major European peers and buoyed by EDP Renováveis.

DECO reports the largest increase in the cost of a typical food basket, indicating a significant rise in grocery prices.

One thing is to express opinions and make comments. Another is to place money on potential winners. See and compare the two.

A World Economic Forum report points to moderate growth in the US and weak growth in Europe. Trade between China and the US is expected to remain stable despite tariffs in 2025.

Prices of Dutch natural gas contracts, which serve as the European benchmark, rose by around 8% on Friday, reaching their highest levels since June. Reuters reports the rise is driven by forecasts of colder weather for the remainder of the month, which have heightened concerns about storage levels...

The World Economic Forum warns the global economy is expected to weaken in 2026, raising concerns about slower growth and potential policy challenges for governments and markets.

Automotive output rose 2.7% over 2025 overall, yet the sector suffered a significant drop in December.

The share of agriculture in total employment is shrinking in all countries of the European Union (EU), but in some the fall has been more pronounced than in others. According to data released this Friday by Eurostat, Portugal was one of the Member States where the decline was most marked between 2013 and 2023. ...

Overnight stays in tourist accommodation in the European Union (EU) set a new record in 2025, reaching 3.08 billion, which represents a 2% increase compared with the previous year, according to data released on Friday by Eurostat. Portugal ranks sixth among the countries with the lowest growth. Portugal recorded 89.6 million ...

ECO reports the Euribor moved higher for the three‑ and six‑month tenors while the 12‑month rate fell; the three‑month rose to 2.033%, the six‑month to 2.143% and the 12‑month stood at 2.248%. These short‑term oscillations can influence variable‑rate mortgages and refinancing costs in the weeks ahead. Mortgage holders and prospective buyers should check loan indexation clauses and lender notices for immediate impacts.
Euribor (Euro Interbank Offered Rate) is the benchmark interest rate at which European banks lend to one another and is widely used as the reference for variable‑rate mortgages in Portugal. Changes affect monthly payments directly: the recent figures reported were 2.034% (3‑month), 2.104% (6‑month) and 2.255% (12‑month), so a rising Euribor typically increases costs for borrowers with tracker or variable loans.

With the Eurogroup set to choose the ECB vice-president on Monday, former Portuguese central bank governor Mário Centeno—one of two front-runners—says there remains a lack of alignment among major EU countries. Speaking to PÚBLICO, Centeno urges reaffirmation of the reasons for his candidacy and signals that political negotiations, policy priorities and regulatory direction will be decisive in the appointment. The comments frame the contest as both a balance-of-power and policy-choice moment for the ECB’s future leadership.

The Recuperar Portugal mission structure said the eighth payment request under the Recovery and Resilience Plan (PRR) — submitted to Brussels in November 2025 — is expected to be paid in February. The announcement gives a tentative timeline for a tranche of EU funds that support national investments under the PRR framework. Project managers and local authorities awaiting PRR cashflows should note the projected month and prepare for administrative steps tied to the payment.
The Recovery and Resilience Plan (Plano de Recuperação e Resiliência) is Portugal's national programme under the EU's NextGenerationEU to fund reforms and investments after COVID‑19; the plan includes roughly €16.6 billion in grants plus about €2.7 billion in loans approved in 2021. Payments are tied to specific milestones and targets — which the government said it is politically committed to meet — so missed milestones can delay projects and funding that affect public works, contractors and local services.
Recover Portugal (Recuperar Portugal) is the national mission structure set up to coordinate, monitor and manage Portugal's implementation of the Recovery and Resilience Plan, including preparing payment requests to the European Commission. The mission said the eighth payment request submitted in November 2025 is expected to be paid in February 2026, so businesses, contractors and municipalities waiting for PRR funds should follow its announcements.

Financial reporting shows the three‑month Euribor remained at 2.016%, while the six‑ and 12‑month rates rose to about 2.146% and 2.251% respectively, widening the curve between short and longer terms. The moves reflect daily money‑market shifts and will influence variable‑rate mortgage costs and short-term borrowing pricing. Mortgage holders should note modest upward pressure on medium/longer reset periods and check how their lender calculates variable payments.
Euribor (Euro Interbank Offered Rate) is the benchmark interest rate at which European banks lend to one another and is widely used as the reference for variable‑rate mortgages in Portugal. Changes affect monthly payments directly: the recent figures reported were 2.034% (3‑month), 2.104% (6‑month) and 2.255% (12‑month), so a rising Euribor typically increases costs for borrowers with tracker or variable loans.

INE confirmed annual inflation eased to 2.3% in 2025, a 0.1 percentage‑point drop from 2024; food was the largest contributor to price increases over the year. The data come from the Consumer Price Index as compiled by the National Institute of Statistics (Instituto Nacional de Estatística or INE). For residents balancing household budgets, slower headline inflation may ease pressure but food-price rises mean grocery bills remain important to monitor.
The INE is Portugal's National Statistics Institute (Instituto Nacional de Estatística), and its housing price index measures changes in residential property prices used by policymakers, lenders and markets. That index—published regularly with monthly and quarterly releases for different housing statistics—helps legislators assess price trends and justify measures when prices are rising steadily.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a statistical measure that tracks the average change over time in the prices paid by households for a fixed basket of goods and services. Portugal’s statistics office (INE) reported the CPI rose by 2.3% last year (0.1 percentage points less than in 2024), and this figure helps expats understand changes in cost of living, rent indexing and adjustments to wages or benefits.
The National Institute of Statistics (National Institute of Statistics (Instituto Nacional de Estatística, INE) is Portugal’s official body for collecting and publishing data on population, economy and travel; it reported that trips by residents abroad rose 21.9% year-on-year to 975,000 in Q2 2025. Expats can use INE data for planning travel, business decisions or understanding tourism trends in Portugal via its website and published bulletins.

Outlets report small day-to-day Euribor shifts: three- and six-month Euribor rates rose slightly while the 12-month rate fell or eased marginally, with published short-term averages around 2.02–2.05% (three-month), ~2.13% (six-month) and roughly 2.25% (12-month) depending on the source. The changes are modest but relevant for borrowers with products indexed to short-term Euribor: expats with variable-rate mortgages or loans should check how their lender updates payments and consider whether a switch to a fixed rate or lender review is advisable.
Euribor (Euro Interbank Offered Rate) is the benchmark interest rate at which European banks lend to one another and is widely used as the reference for variable‑rate mortgages in Portugal. Changes affect monthly payments directly: the recent figures reported were 2.034% (3‑month), 2.104% (6‑month) and 2.255% (12‑month), so a rising Euribor typically increases costs for borrowers with tracker or variable loans.

New data from Portugal's Survey on Living Conditions and Income show one region has the country's highest incidence of monetary poverty, with 17.9% of residents living below the poverty threshold. Analysts and local actors attribute the rise to a combination of state neglect, insufficient social-protection measures, the growth of precarious immigration and unstable work, and wider cost-of-living pressures — factors that together depress incomes and worsen social indicators. The figures point to a need for targeted regional policies on social security, employment quality and integration to reverse the trend.

JP Morgan analysts Aditya Chordia and Matteo Mamprin assign a roughly 50% probability that Moody’s will upgrade Portugal’s sovereign credit rating at its scheduled review in May, putting an upgrade within about four and a half months. The bank’s view reflects an assessment that Portugal’s improving economic fundamentals, fiscal position and lower borrowing costs have materially strengthened its credit profile, reducing downside risks. An upgrade as soon as May would tighten financing spreads, reinforce investor confidence and mark another step in Portugal’s long post‑crisis recovery; market participants should monitor sovereign metrics and rating signals in the run‑up to the review.

The National Institute of Statistics (INE) will reassess in March the classification of Novobanco's dividends, potentially allowing that income to be recognised in last year’s national accounts. If reclassified to count towards the previous budget balance, the adjustment could provide an extra boost to help the Portuguese Government meet or exceed its 0.3% surplus target for 2025. The move would alter headline fiscal metrics, affect timing of revenue recognition in national accounts, and carry implications for public finance reporting, investor perceptions and future treatment of similar banking transactions.

Official data show exports from Portuguese-speaking (Lusophone) countries to China fell 4% in the first 11 months of 2025 compared with the same period in 2024. The decline signals cooling Chinese demand and possible shifts in commodity prices or trade composition that weigh on economies exposed to Chinese markets. Policymakers and exporters will be watching full-year figures and country-level performance for signs of a sustained trend and potential policy or market responses.
Real-time analytical coverage of financial markets and economic developments on 6 January, including market moves, key data releases and macro indicators. Commentary focuses on consumer confidence and cost pressures, investor sentiment and flows, implications for investors and expat households, and the significance of today’s indicators for policy and markets.

In 2024 remittances from Venezuela to Portugal amounted to €9.8 million, a 15% decline on the previous year. The fall signals shifts in diaspora financial flows and can serve as an economic indicator of changing expatriate activity and cross‑border ties between the two countries.

Portugal’s stock market posted its strongest annual performance since 2009, driving an aggregate increase of more than €2.5 billion in the value of the country’s largest stock-market fortunes. Broad gains across most listed shares lifted prominent families — notably the Azevedo family — and highlighted the market’s role as an economic indicator for investors and expats. The move suggests improved investor confidence and greater wealth concentration among major shareholders, with implications for portfolio strategies and domestic capital flows in 2025.



Portugal Resident •

Portugal Resident •