Latest news and stories about economic indicator in government in Portugal for expats and residents.
Prime Minister Luís Montenegro faces a heated parliamentary debate as opposition parties criticize the government's response to rising fuel prices triggered by the conflict in Iran.
Drug addiction statistics headline today's DN: Cocaine consumption is rising in Portugal and the rest of Europe, while ecstasy use is in sharp decline. Lisbon, Porto, and Almada are among the 115 cities whose wastewater was analysed by the European Union Drugs Agency. Cannabis remains the most consumed narcotic. The main photo features Mário Centeno: 'My future is open.' Leaving the Bank of Portugal, the former governor and ex-Finance Minister told DN that he will fully embrace his freedom and be a 'demanding' voice for a better country. 'The country needs those who want to be leaders to show service and preparation,' stated Centeno, in a conversation where he avoided controversy surrounding his retirement agreement. Also highlighted is the Champions League, with a glorious night at Alvalade: Sporting remains in the Champions League. Download the full electronic edition of the newspaper at the link below. See the front page in detail.
Analysts at Morningstar DBRS estimate that the average price of a barrel of oil will end the year at 68 dollars, about 4% above the baseline assumption in the 2026 State Budget. While recent geopolitical tensions have caused significant price spikes, experts suggest that the impact on the Portuguese economy remains manageable for now, though prolonged conflict could change the outlook. The Ministry of Finance notes that a 20% increase in oil prices would have a residual impact on public finances, as increased tax revenue from VAT and fuel taxes partially offsets the economic slowdown.
The article does not specifically mention Portugal. Instead, it discusses the global economic impact of rising oil prices, particularly at $100 per barrel, due to geopolitical conflicts like the Iran war. It highlights fiscal challenges faced by countries in shielding households from higher energy costs, with potential costs up to 3% of GDP for vulnerable nations. The piece also covers policy responses, such as South Korea’s fuel price cap, and emphasizes the risks of social unrest and economic slowdown resulting from sustained high oil prices.
In an interview with CNN Portugal, the Minister of Environment, Maria da Graça Carvalho, expresses concern over the rise in fuel and gas prices.
The PCP parliamentary leader announced this Tuesday that the party has scheduled a debate with the Government for the 25th on 'general policy', focusing on the 'price hikes resulting from the war in the Middle East on living conditions' in Portugal.
The stock of debt securities issued by residents stood at 325.7 billion euros at the end of February, an increase of 3.9 billion compared to January, according to the Banco de Portugal (BdP). The rise was mainly driven by public administration issuances, which exceeded redemptions by 2.4 billion euros. The BdP also notes a significant contribution from valuations, amounting to 1.7 billion, concentrated in public securities. Regarding listed shares issued by residents, the stock reached 82 billion in February, an increase of five billion compared to the end of January. 'This development is entirely justified by the valuation of resident listed shares, the highest since November 2020,' the central bank states. By sector, shares of non-financial companies appreciated by 5.4 billion, while those in the financial sector recorded a depreciation of 340 million euros. Debt security issuances totaled 321.5 billion in January.
Live coverage of market and economic developments for March 17.
The webpage provides a collection of recent news highlights related to Portugal, covering various topics such as politics, social issues, and local incidents. Notable stories include the Portuguese activist assaulted by Israeli settlers in the West Bank, and a Portuguese man who died in a tractor accident in Macedo de Cavaleiros. Political updates mention an impasse in the Portuguese Parliament involving Chega and PS over elections and representation in the Constitutional Court. Other highlights include local events like a potential trampling incident during a procession in Nazaré, and Portugal's ongoing coverage of the Ukraine conflict. Additionally, there are reports on economic matters, such as rising fuel prices, and international news involving Iran's desire to host games outside the US amid regional tensions.
Conflict between Israel and Iran is impacting Portuguese households through rising energy and food costs. A 50-liter tank of fuel is now 11.75 euros more expensive than before the war, with further risks if the Strait of Hormuz (Estreito de Ormuz) closes. The International Energy Agency warns of a massive global supply drop this month. Residents should note that these pressures may also lead to interest rate hikes.
Minister of National Defence Nuno Melo defended a 5.8 billion euro investment in the armed forces through the Instrument of Action for European Security (Instrumento de Acção para a Segurança da Europa or SAFE). The government claims the loans are a “unique opportunity” to modernize equipment and cover full life cycles of military assets. Portugal has now reached the NATO target of 2% of GDP in military spending. Taxpayers should note that the government has refuted accusations of a lack of transparency regarding these loans.
Nuno Melo is the president of CDS-PP (Centro Democrático e Social – Partido Popular), a Christian democratic party in Portugal. In the story he linked Chega's position to socialism, compared André Ventura to Donald Trump, and urged party members to vote 'in conscience' in the presidential runoff on the 8th, a stance that could affect centre‑right voters.
Minister of Environment and Energy Maria da Graça Carvalho stated that fuel prices (preços dos combustíveis) could decrease next week if international Brent crude prices remain low through Friday. The government is monitoring the impact of the Middle East conflict on energy costs and is prepared to offer tax relief via the tax on petroleum products (Imposto sobre os Produtos Petrolíferos or ISP). Drivers should note that a discount applies if prices rise by more than 10 cents.
Update: Portugal to release 10% of strategic oil reserves
Prime Minister Luís Montenegro announced that Portugal will release two million barrels of oil—roughly 10% of its strategic reserves—to help stabilize fuel prices. This move follows an International Energy Agency agreement to release 400 million barrels globally due to supply risks in the Strait of Hormuz.
Maria da Graça Carvalho, the Energy Minister, is a Portuguese engineer and politician affiliated with the Social Democratic Party (PSD) who has served as a Member of the European Parliament and held government roles connected to science and higher education policy. Her work on research and EU policy can affect funding and regulation that matter to professionals and students living in Portugal.
The ISP is Portugal's excise tax on fuels — the Tax on Petroleum and Energy Products (Imposto sobre Produtos Petrolíferos e Energéticos) — charged as a unit rate per litre on petrol, diesel and other fuels. The government sets and can temporarily cut those unit rates; a recent decision to reduce the rate for road diesel on the mainland aims to lower pump prices and reduce transport costs for drivers and businesses, though it also lowers tax revenue.
Luís Filipe Montenegro Cardoso de Morais Esteves (born February 16, 1973, in Porto) is a Portuguese lawyer and center‑right politician who has served as Prime Minister of Portugal since April 2, 2024. A long‑time member of the Social Democratic Party (PSD), he is the leading figure of the post‑Troika generation of Portuguese conservatives. Montenegro was elected to the Assembly of the Republic in 2002 for the Aveiro district and remained an MP for 16 years, becoming PSD parliamentary leader from 2011 to 2017 during the bailout and austerity period under Prime Minister Pedro Passos Coelho. He was a prominent defender of strict austerity measures, arguing in 2014 that “the life of the people is no better, but the life of the country is a lot better,” a phrase that has followed his public image since. After an unsuccessful leadership bid against Rui Rio in 2020, Montenegro won the PSD leadership in 2022. He then forged the centre‑right Democratic Alliance (PSD–CDS‑PP and allies), which won a plurality of seats in the 2024 legislative election. Refusing to partner with the far‑right Chega, which he has called “often xenophobic, racist, populist and excessively demagogic,” he formed a minority government as head of the XXIV Constitutional Government on April 2, 2024. His first government fell in March 2025 after a no‑confidence vote linked to a conflict‑of‑interest affair, but fresh elections saw the Democratic Alliance increase its seat share, allowing Montenegro to return as prime minister leading the XXV Constitutional Government. His importance to Portugal lies in attempting to re‑center the traditional centre‑right after the crisis years, defending liberal‑conservative economics and EU alignment while drawing a sharp line against formal cooperation with the radical right, thus shaping how Portuguese democracy manages its new multi‑party era.
Banco de Fomento plans to place over 20 billion euros in guarantees in the market this year, as stated by the CEO. The initiative comes in response to a slower economy, with a goal to recover losses incurred over the past two years within the next ten months.
Contributions from foreigners to Portugal's Social Security have seen a significant increase, rising eightfold over the past decade. The positive balance between contributions and benefits has grown more than nine times in 11 years, with the number of contributing women increasing 4.5 times and men 6.1 times. Starting this Friday, monthly statistics will be available, highlighting the growing role of foreign contributions, particularly from Brazilians, who contributed 6 billion euros since 2015.
Foreign workers now make up 17.6% of Social Security contributors, a significant rise from 4.5% a decade ago. In December 2025, over 840,000 immigrant professionals contributed, reflecting a 5.4-fold increase since December 2015. Total contributions reached over 4.1 billion euros last year, an 8.5-fold increase from 491 million euros a decade earlier. This data, released by the Ministry of Labour, aims to dispel myths about immigrants and their contributions, with Secretary of State Filipa Lima emphasizing the need for transparency in statistics. The dashboard will provide detailed monthly updates on contributions by nationality and age, highlighting a notable increase in contributions from foreign workers, particularly in agriculture, hospitality, administrative services, and construction.
Press review: Storms in January and February have pushed the food basket to a four‑year high, with prices rising consecutively since early 2026 as greenhouse destruction and higher transport costs bite, warns Deco Proteste. Jornal de Notícias and other outlets flag further deterioration in vegetable and fruit bills, while the state faces millions in costs to recover at‑risk companies. Coverage also notes a controversial overlap in business figures linked to a human‑trafficking case, a resigning INEM training director earning €5,700 while working remotely, and the ongoing hardship in Amor, Leiria, where residents describe daily struggle after the storms.
The government is in a unique financial position with a significant budget surplus, allowing it to allocate resources effectively in response to the ongoing disaster.
This analytical piece assesses whether a proposed €60 billion package will act as a genuine catalyst for Portugal’s economic growth or amount to a strategic submission that risks political and strategic costs. It weighs likely macroeconomic benefits — short-term demand activation, higher investment, improved consumer confidence and positive indicators for employment and productivity — against fiscal risks to the state budget, conditionality that could constrain policy autonomy, and potential strategic dependencies on external partners. The summary highlights trade-offs between immediate stimulus and long-term competitiveness, recommends strict transparency, targeted investment in productivity-enhancing sectors, robust monitoring of fiscal indicators and contingency safeguards to preserve sovereignty and diversify partnerships.
The Government and UGT-affiliated unions Fesap and STE will sign an agreement raising the State minimum wage (Public Administration Remuneration Base, BRAP) to €1,116.55 in 2029 — effectively €1,117. The deal, due to be signed on Wednesday, formalises a planned uplift for public-sector pay that will interact with cost-of-living pressures and broader labour-market indicators, signalling the state’s approach to wage policy ahead of 2029.
The EU has responded firmly to President Trump’s announcement of tariffs on several European countries over the Greenland dispute, expressing solidarity with Denmark and warning of a “dangerous spiral” that could damage transatlantic relations and even lead to suspension of parts of the trade agreement with the US. France, Sweden and the UK have rejected intimidation and pledged a coordinated European response, while the President of the European Council is coordinating a joint position and EU leaders have convened an emergency meeting to weigh diplomatic, economic and political options.
With the Eurogroup set to choose the ECB vice-president on Monday, former Portuguese central bank governor Mário Centeno—one of two front-runners—says there remains a lack of alignment among major EU countries. Speaking to PÚBLICO, Centeno urges reaffirmation of the reasons for his candidacy and signals that political negotiations, policy priorities and regulatory direction will be decisive in the appointment. The comments frame the contest as both a balance-of-power and policy-choice moment for the ECB’s future leadership.
New data from Portugal's Survey on Living Conditions and Income show one region has the country's highest incidence of monetary poverty, with 17.9% of residents living below the poverty threshold. Analysts and local actors attribute the rise to a combination of state neglect, insufficient social-protection measures, the growth of precarious immigration and unstable work, and wider cost-of-living pressures — factors that together depress incomes and worsen social indicators. The figures point to a need for targeted regional policies on social security, employment quality and integration to reverse the trend.
JP Morgan analysts Aditya Chordia and Matteo Mamprin assign a roughly 50% probability that Moody’s will upgrade Portugal’s sovereign credit rating at its scheduled review in May, putting an upgrade within about four and a half months. The bank’s view reflects an assessment that Portugal’s improving economic fundamentals, fiscal position and lower borrowing costs have materially strengthened its credit profile, reducing downside risks. An upgrade as soon as May would tighten financing spreads, reinforce investor confidence and mark another step in Portugal’s long post‑crisis recovery; market participants should monitor sovereign metrics and rating signals in the run‑up to the review.
The National Institute of Statistics (INE) will reassess in March the classification of Novobanco's dividends, potentially allowing that income to be recognised in last year’s national accounts. If reclassified to count towards the previous budget balance, the adjustment could provide an extra boost to help the Portuguese Government meet or exceed its 0.3% surplus target for 2025. The move would alter headline fiscal metrics, affect timing of revenue recognition in national accounts, and carry implications for public finance reporting, investor perceptions and future treatment of similar banking transactions.
Real-time analytical coverage of financial markets and economic developments on 6 January, including market moves, key data releases and macro indicators. Commentary focuses on consumer confidence and cost pressures, investor sentiment and flows, implications for investors and expat households, and the significance of today’s indicators for policy and markets.
