U.S. President Donald Trump announced tariffs on eight European countries tied to a dispute over Greenland, prompting President of the European Council, António Costa, and EU ambassadors to meet urgently on Sunday and leaders to promise a coordinated response. Brussels and several national leaders warned the measures threaten transatlantic relations; the European Parliament has signalled it will not advance a pending EU–US trade deal while tensions escalate. The political uncertainty could stall trade policy and affect exporters and markets; business owners and exporters should monitor developments closely.

Update: Multiple outlets (RTP, POLITICO Europe, ECO) report French President Emmanuel Macron pressed EU leaders to activate the bloc’s anti‑coercion instrument if Washington imposes the threatened surtaxes; the tool would require a qualified majority of member states to be deployed and is meant as a legal-political deterrent. Markets, exporters and import‑dependent businesses should monitor diplomatic developments and any concrete EU measures that could affect trade flows.

The Canadian rating agency DBRS left Portugal's credit rating unchanged at its recent review and kept the outlook stable, citing continued fiscal progress and a path to a budget surplus in 2025. Outlets note this follows DBRS's upgrade to 'A (high)' last year and is consistent with other recent assessments of Portuguese public finances. Borrowers, investors and anyone monitoring mortgage or bond markets should see this as a sign of continued credit stability.

With the Eurogroup set to choose the ECB vice-president on Monday, former Portuguese central bank governor Mário Centeno—one of two front-runners—says there remains a lack of alignment among major EU countries. Speaking to PÚBLICO, Centeno urges reaffirmation of the reasons for his candidacy and signals that political negotiations, policy priorities and regulatory direction will be decisive in the appointment. The comments frame the contest as both a balance-of-power and policy-choice moment for the ECB’s future leadership.

New data from Portugal's Survey on Living Conditions and Income show one region has the country's highest incidence of monetary poverty, with 17.9% of residents living below the poverty threshold. Analysts and local actors attribute the rise to a combination of state neglect, insufficient social-protection measures, the growth of precarious immigration and unstable work, and wider cost-of-living pressures — factors that together depress incomes and worsen social indicators. The figures point to a need for targeted regional policies on social security, employment quality and integration to reverse the trend.

JP Morgan analysts Aditya Chordia and Matteo Mamprin assign a roughly 50% probability that Moody’s will upgrade Portugal’s sovereign credit rating at its scheduled review in May, putting an upgrade within about four and a half months. The bank’s view reflects an assessment that Portugal’s improving economic fundamentals, fiscal position and lower borrowing costs have materially strengthened its credit profile, reducing downside risks. An upgrade as soon as May would tighten financing spreads, reinforce investor confidence and mark another step in Portugal’s long post‑crisis recovery; market participants should monitor sovereign metrics and rating signals in the run‑up to the review.

The National Institute of Statistics (INE) will reassess in March the classification of Novobanco's dividends, potentially allowing that income to be recognised in last year’s national accounts. If reclassified to count towards the previous budget balance, the adjustment could provide an extra boost to help the Portuguese Government meet or exceed its 0.3% surplus target for 2025. The move would alter headline fiscal metrics, affect timing of revenue recognition in national accounts, and carry implications for public finance reporting, investor perceptions and future treatment of similar banking transactions.

Real-time analytical coverage of financial markets and economic developments on 6 January, including market moves, key data releases and macro indicators. Commentary focuses on consumer confidence and cost pressures, investor sentiment and flows, implications for investors and expat households, and the significance of today’s indicators for policy and markets.