Analysts at Morningstar DBRS estimate that the average price of a barrel of oil will end the year at 68 dollars, about 4% above the baseline assumption in the 2026 State Budget. While recent geopolitical tensions have caused significant price spikes, experts suggest that the impact on the Portuguese economy remains manageable for now, though prolonged conflict could change the outlook. The Ministry of Finance notes that a 20% increase in oil prices would have a residual impact on public finances, as increased tax revenue from VAT and fuel taxes partially offsets the economic slowdown.