Latest news and stories about interest rates in finance in Portugal for expats and residents.
Sofia Cordeiro, general manager of Mortgage Brokers, advises those with home loans to renegotiate them with their bank, at a time when variable-rate mortgage payments are expected to rise.
The US Federal Reserve is set to decide on monetary policy this Wednesday, the 18th, in its first meeting since the conflict with Iran, which has driven up energy prices. Analysts expect interest rates to remain unchanged. The Fed and the European Central Bank are both meeting this week amidst heightened Middle East tensions, including the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which has increased market volatility. While the Fed is expected to maintain its current stance, focus remains on updated economic projections and comments from Chair Jerome Powell regarding future rate paths.
Rising oil prices point to a chain reaction of increases, ranging from electricity to interest rates. Euribor rates are already reflecting this expectation.
The US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank are set to decide on monetary policy this week against the backdrop of the war in the Middle East, which has raised inflation concerns. However, analysts expect interest rates to remain unchanged. While the Fed is expected to maintain its current stance, the ECB may adopt a more vigilant tone due to energy price volatility. Market attention will be focused on updated economic projections and press conferences from Jerome Powell and Christine Lagarde.
The rise in raw material prices, originating from Gulf countries due to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, will change monetary policy this year. In the eurozone, Euribor is already rising, and Trump's desire for low interest rates may be frustrated. The ECB and the Fed meet this week for the first time since the war against Iran.
Homeowners with a mortgage (crédito habitação) that is due for review in April will see an increase in their monthly bank repayments. While the impact on very recent contracts may be limited, those with older variable-rate agreements face higher costs due to interest rate trends. Mortgage-holders should note that many younger borrowers are increasingly opting for mixed interest rates (taxas mistas) to ensure more predictable monthly costs.
Euribor rates, which serve as the basis for calculating home loan repayments, have risen again across the main maturities. These rates have been worsening since the start of the conflict in Iran due to fears that the central bank will have to raise interest rates to contain inflationary pressures that may arise from it.
The executive director of CM and CMTV says that we can do without some things, but the “home is a refuge” and the installments must be paid.
The fear that we may be entering a new inflationary crisis is increasing expectations of an interest rate hike by the ECB. And the cost at which states finance themselves has already risen.
The ongoing conflict in Iran is triggering economic instability, leading to rising inflation and expectations of interest rate hikes by the ECB, which will directly increase mortgage costs for families in Portugal.
The ECB meets next week and members of the monetary authority have stated there will be no hasty action. One of the central bankers assumes that an interest rate hike could come as early as the first half of the year.
In this week's Legal Solutions, Jorge Silva, head of the Order of Notaries, explains whether there is a maximum limit on the interest rates that credit institutions can apply, at a time when the 12-month Euribor has reached its highest value since January of last year.
The European Central Bank will have a decision on interest rates next week, but still lacks data on March inflation. Mortgage repayments may already feel the consequences of the attack on Iran in April, but the effects will only be significant if the instability continues.
The article does not pertain to Portugal; instead, it reports that Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank (ECB), assures that inflation will be kept under control amid the ongoing Middle East conflict. Lagarde emphasized the ECB's commitment to preventing inflation surges similar to those experienced in 2022 and 2023, caused partly by Russia's invasion of Ukraine. She highlighted the current high uncertainty and volatility in global markets, referencing recent oil price fluctuations. Recent Eurostat data shows inflation in the eurozone decreased to 1.7% in January 2026, below the ECB's 2% target, with core inflation at 2.2%. Lagarde did not specify potential interest rate hikes but reaffirmed the ECB's focus on maintaining price stability despite geopolitical tensions.
ADMIRABLE TRUMP WORLD NEWSLETTER • DAILY EDITION WITH UPDATES ON THE US AND ISRAELI ATTACK ON IRAN
The war in the Middle East region has driven up energy prices, leading the market to fear an increase in inflation, which would cause the ECB to intervene to try to control the price hikes.
Kyriakos Pierrakakis, President of the Eurogroup and Greek Finance Minister, warned that the European economy must prepare for a prolonged period of instability, citing potential maritime transport disruptions, rising energy prices, and inflationary risks. He cautioned that despite claims of reduced dependency on oil and gas, euro area economies remain vulnerable to external shocks from conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine. This uncertainty threatens to derail the current 2% inflation target, potentially forcing the European Central Bank to raise interest rates in 2026. Meanwhile, Portuguese Finance Minister Miranda Sarmento addressed concerns regarding the national budget, while emphasizing the need for continued fiscal discipline and coordinated European energy strategies.
The price of Brent crude above 100 dollars per barrel and a 30% surge in natural gas in just one day are reshaping investor expectations for European monetary policy, which now points to two 25 basis point interest rate hikes by the European Central Bank later this year.
The amount of new home loans fell by 18.6% compared to December, to 1.783 billion euros.
The average interest rate for new consumer credit operations was set at 9.15% in January 2026, an increase of 5.3 basis points compared to December of last year. This is the highest value since July 2014 — nearly 12 years ago — according to data released this Wednesday by the Bank of ...
This article discusses the Euribor rates in Portugal. The Euribor rates for three and twelve months increased, while the six-month rate decreased. The article also mentions the European Central Bank (ECB) maintaining its key interest rates and provides information about the average monthly Euribor rates in January.
Euribor rates rose on Friday across the three-, six- and twelve-month tenors compared with Thursday. The three-month rate climbed to 1.999% but remains beneath the six-month (2.147%) and twelve-month (2.248%) rates, preserving an upward-sloping short-term curve. The six-month Euribor is due to reset in January 2024. The moves will be watched by borrowers and lenders because they affect variable-rate loans and short-term funding costs, and they reflect evolving market expectations about near-term interest rates.
Euribor rates fell on Monday across three, six and twelve-month terms. The three-month rate dropped to 1.982%, slipping below 2% for only the second time since 6 November, and remains lower than the six-month rate (2.132%) and the twelve-month term. The decline suggests marginal easing in short-term money-market borrowing costs, with immediate implications for variable-rate mortgage holders and other borrowers, while signalling market expectations of slower near-term interest-rate pressure.
Households with mortgages tied to the six-month Euribor — the most commonly used term — will see their monthly instalments increase in February. The change raises borrowing costs and is likely to squeeze household budgets as loan repayments climb.
