International media focused on the surprise outcome of Portugal’s presidential first round, highlighting a runoff between socialist António José Seguro and far-right leader André Ventura. Coverage emphasised Seguro’s unexpected advance ‘against all predictions’, the growing prominence of the far right in Portuguese politics, and the wider implications for national policy and the upcoming campaign ahead of the decisive second round.
Ten mainland Portuguese districts — Porto, Faro, Setúbal, Viana do Castelo, Lisbon, Leiria, Beja, Aveiro, Coimbra and Braga — are under a yellow warning for rough seas from 12:00 on Tuesday until 09:00 on Wednesday. IPMA forecasts waves of up to 5 metres and mainland conditions of very cloudy skies (becoming mostly clear in the south) with isolated light precipitation in the north and centre. The alert signals increased marine risk and warrants caution for coastal activities and maritime operations.
The PSP has launched a month‑long school operation, 'Violence? No, thank you!', delivering awareness activities for the whole school community on school-based violence, weapons possession/use and juvenile delinquency. Targeting pupils in the 3rd cycle of basic education and secondary schools, the campaign combines prevention and legal deterrence by warning minors that violent acts can carry criminal consequences. The initiative aims to reduce incidents, improve reporting and engage schools, families and staff in safeguarding measures.
Filipe Teles examines an election night that produced an unexpected run-off between António José Seguro and André Ventura, where the rhetoric of moderation ultimately prevailed over polarisation. Both front-runners immediately framed the next stage as a choice — Seguro pitching democracy and moderation versus hatred, Ventura promising change against a corrupt establishment — while the broader results energised the PS, unsettled the government and confirmed the rise of Chega as a disruptive force. The piece assesses how campaign language, party dynamics and voter reactions set the terms for the decisive run-off and the likely political consequences for Portugal.
Two candidates progressed to the second round, but the electoral picture is nuanced: several campaigns achieved relative victories or damaging setbacks when measured against expectations rather than raw placement. The analysis distinguishes clear winners — those who gained momentum, consolidated coalitions or exceeded polling — from losers who underperformed, fractured support bases or failed to translate resources into votes. It also outlines the likely consequences for party leaders and backers, the shifting calculus for endorsements and alliances before the runoff, and the policy and strategic questions now facing the remaining contenders.
With 11 candidates on the ballot, Portugal’s presidential contest has narrowed to a rare second round on 8 February between António José Seguro and André Ventura. The shape of the runoff will be driven by two things: the distribution of votes from the first round and the endorsements — formal and informal — that shift centre, left and right voters. Parties and figures on the left will weigh tactical appeals to prevent a far‑right victory, while some centre‑right actors face taboos about endorsing Ventura and may prefer abstention or ambiguous signals. The analysis examines likely endorsement patterns, voter transferability, campaign messaging, and scenarios that could determine whether the contest consolidates around a moderate alternative or legitimises a hard‑right presidency with broader consequences for Portuguese politics.
Update: A new piece underscores the same binary focus but adds procedural context: the second ballot shortens electoral timelines up to 8 February, compressing campaigning and decision windows for endorsements and tactical voting. Crucially, the electoral rules preserve early voting despite the accelerated schedule, meaning mobilising early voters and communicating endorsement signals quickly will be decisive. The article reiterates that tracking first‑round vote transfers and the public and private signals from centre and centre‑right figures — including abstention or soft endorsements — will shape whether the runoff consolidates around Seguro or hands legitimacy to Ventura.
In an update to its World Economic Outlook titled “Global economy: stable amid divergent forces,” the IMF raised its projection for world growth to 3.3 per cent in 2026. The upgrade reflects stronger-than-expected activity in the United States and China, which together account for a large share of the global upgrade, while growth remains uneven across regions. The IMF cautions that downside risks — including inflationary pressures, elevated debt levels and investment shortfalls — could yet temper the outlook, underscoring the need for prudent fiscal and monetary policy to sustain the recovery.
International newspapers in Spain, France and the United Kingdom focused on the unexpected second‑round face‑off between the far‑right and surprise Socialist candidate António José Seguro, noting the upset dynamics reshaping the presidential contest. Coverage emphasised Seguro’s rapid rise and the setback for centre‑right figure Luís Marques Mendes, framing the result as a test of party realignments and voter sentiment ahead of the decisive round. Commentators analysed the implications for domestic politics and Europe‑wide far‑right momentum.
In 2026 Lisbon accounted for the largest share of property listings, reflecting a concentrated supply base in the capital. By contrast Aveiro recorded the strongest year‑on‑year increase in market activity, signalling accelerating demand and investor interest there. The data suggest diverging regional dynamics — supply dominance in Lisbon versus faster transactional growth in Aveiro — with implications for pricing, investment allocation and local market strategies.
PAN (People–Animals–Nature) announced it will back António José Seguro in the presidential election second round on 8 February. The party’s statement was reinforced by Pedro Duarte, the Social Democrat mayor of Porto, who told CNN he will vote for Seguro and criticised André Ventura as pursuing party advantage. The endorsement brings an additional cross-party element to the run-off contest.
António José Seguro and André Ventura advanced to a presidential runoff that sets a stark choice for voters. Seguro framed himself as a unifying 'President of all Portuguese', while Ventura characterised his campaign in opposition to the 'socialist space', producing an 'ocean of differences' in tone and strategy. The second round will test whether a conciliatory, centrist message or a confrontational, non‑socialist platform gains broader traction.
In the aftermath of the presidential first round, several defeated candidates have signalled how the contest will shape up. Catarina Martins, António Filipe and Jorge Pinto have declared support for António José Seguro in the second round, consolidating a bloc of endorsements. Marques Mendes, who finished fifth, said he bears no grudges, while Gouveia e Melo vowed to keep serving the country, positioning himself as a continuity-minded figure. Cotrim de Figueiredo responded with pointed criticism of Montenegro, underlining a personalised element to the post‑election rhetoric and potential tensions within the opposition landscape.
Portugal’s presidential race moves to a high-stakes run-off between Seguro and Ventura, as centre-right and third-place candidates decline to endorse either finalist. Left parties are mobilising to curb Ventura’s momentum, with immigration emerging as a defining fault line after smaller candidates underperform despite strong legislative showings. We break down who won and lost, what each camp is arguing, and how the run-off timeline will unfold for voters abroad.
António José Seguro won the first round and will face André Ventura in the second round (segunda volta), taking roughly 31.1% of the vote to Ventura’s about 23.5% across multiple outlets. Media coverage frames Seguro as the surprise centre‑left favourite while international press highlights Ventura’s strong showing as proof of Chega’s growth on the right. The result sets up a polarised run‑off where parties and smaller candidates’ stances will matter; voters should check how polling locations and consular arrangements will be handled for the next round. Those preparing to vote in the run‑off should follow campaign developments and confirm where and when they can cast ballots.
Update: Small left parties under 5% still shape agenda
Diário de Notícias and Observador note that left‑wing parties Livre, Bloco de Esquerda and PCP together poll under 5% yet continue to influence the public agenda and force larger campaigns to respond to their priorities.
Update 3: Parties, artists and centre‑right figures mobilise for Seguro
Sources report that several smaller left parties and cultural figures are calling on voters to support António José Seguro in the second round, while some centre‑right and liberal public figures have publicly signalled backing as a response to the prospect of a Ventura presidency. Media coverage includes endorsements from musicians and public intellectuals and mentions António Lobo Xavier weighing in publicly in support of Seguro.
Chega ("Enough") is a Portuguese far-right populist party founded in 2019 by André Ventura. It positions itself as an anti-establishment movement against what it calls a "rotten and corrupt system" of PS-PSD dominance. The party surged from 1.3% in 2019 to 22.8% in May 2025, becoming parliament's second-largest force with 60 seats. Chega's core platform emphasizes strict immigration control—ending automatic CPLP residency, deporting non-independent immigrants, implementing job-market quotas, and requiring five-year social security contributions before benefit access. It advocates radical constitutional reform, including reducing parliament to 100 members, abolishing the prime minister position for a presidential system, and dismantling public healthcare. Law-and-order policies include life imprisonment and chemical castration proposals.
The party is defined by inflammatory anti-Romani rhetoric, with Ventura convicted multiple times for discrimination. Chega maintains international alignments with European far-right figures including Marine Le Pen, Santiago Abascal, and Matteo Salvini. Mainstream Portuguese parties, including Prime Minister Luís Montenegro's government, have imposed a cordon sanitaire, refusing coalition with Chega despite its parliamentary strength.
The Left Bloc achieved its worst result in history in 2025, dropping from 5 seats to just 1. Mariana Mortágua, who led the party from May 2023, resigned in October 2025 after failing to reverse the party's electoral decline. Founded in 1999 as a coalition of far-left parties, BE was once the third-largest force in Portuguese politics and a key partner in the 2015-2019 Geringonça government.
André Ventura, born January 15, 1983, is a lawyer, academic, and Portugal's most prominent far-right leader. He founded Chega ("Enough") in 2019 after his PSD mayoral campaign attacked the Romani community. Chega surged from 1.3% in 2019 to 22.8% in May 2025, becoming parliament's second-largest party and making Ventura Leader of the Opposition.
His platform emphasizes immigration restrictions, law-and-order policies, constitutional reform, and contains inflammatory anti-Romani rhetoric that has triggered multiple discrimination convictions and investigations. Politically classified as far-right by international media, Ventura cultivates alliances with European far-right figures including Marine Le Pen and Santiago Abascal.
He announced his 2026 presidential candidacy, polling at 18% alongside independent Admiral Gouveia e Melo. His rise ended Portugal's 50-year resistance to far-right parties.
Background:
António José Martins Seguro (born March 11, 1962, in Penamacor) is a lawyer, political scientist, and Socialist Party politician running for president in Portugal's January 18, 2026 election. He led Socialist Youth (1990-1994), served as MEP (1999-2001), was Minister Adjunct to PM António Guterres (2001-2002), and led the PS parliamentary group (2004-2005). Elected PS Secretary-General in 2011 with 68%, he led the opposition during Portugal's bailout era. In 2014, António Costa defeated him in party primaries by a landslide, prompting Seguro's resignation and decade-long retreat from politics. He returned in 2025, launching the movement UPortugal and announcing his presidential candidacy in June. He received official PS backing in October 2025. Political Philosophy:
Seguro positions himself as representing a "modern and moderate" left, offering a progressive alternative to conservative candidates. He advocates for "financial responsibility but critical of austerity," attempting to reposition the PS at center-left. His campaign emphasizes institutional trust, efficient governance, and hope for a better future.
LIVRE (meaning "Free") is a green left-wing party founded in 2014 by historian and former MEP Rui Tavares. The party struggled for years before finally electing Tavares as its first MP in 2022, then grew to 4 seats in 2024 and 6 seats in 2025—making it the only progressive party to gain ground in recent elections. LIVRE focuses on environmental protection, human rights, and progressive social policies while maintaining a pro-European stance.
Socialist Party (PS)
Portugal's other traditional major party suffered a historic collapse in the 2025 election, dropping from 78 to 58 seats and falling to third place for the first time in democratic history. The party was led by Pedro Nuno Santos from January 2024 until his resignation following the May 2025 defeat. José Luís Carneiro, a 53-year-old former Minister of Internal Administration known for his moderate positioning within the party, was elected unopposed as the new Secretary-General with 95% of votes in June 2025. The Socialist Party governed Portugal from 2015 to 2024, including an absolute majority from 2022 to 2024 under António Costa, who resigned in November 2023 amid a corruption investigation. The PS previously led the innovative "Geringonça" (contraption) coalition government from 2015-2019, a minority government supported by the Left Bloc and Portuguese Communist Party that reversed austerity measures and presided over economic recovery.
The PCP is the Portuguese Communist Party (Partido Comunista Português), a historic left-wing party founded in 1921. It remains influential in some trade unions and local councils, usually wins single-digit percentages in national elections, and often runs as part of the CDU coalition with the Greens. Voters and those tracking coalition-building should note the PCP’s capacity to mobilise grassroots support and influence left-wing alliances.
The CNE is the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições), Portugal’s independent body that organises and oversees elections, publishes official turnout and results, and handles electoral complaints. Residents and voters should consult the CNE for authoritative results, turnout figures and guidance on voting rules during election periods.
João Cotrim de Figueiredo — who finished third — and leaders on the centre‑right stopped short of recommending either run‑off candidate, with Cotrim saying he will not advise supporters how to vote. The PSD and liberal figures signalled restraint and, according to reports, some centre‑right voices criticised PSD leadership performance after the result. With endorsements mixed or withheld, the second round becomes a contest where each candidate must court undecided and centre voters directly; campaign teams and centrist voters should watch public signals from the PSD and smaller parties.
Update: Former prime minister Pedro Passos Coelho said he will remain silent for the second round and declined to make any statement advising supporters how to vote.
João Fernando Cotrim de Figueiredo (born June 24, 1961, in Lisbon) is a businessman and liberal politician running for Portugal's presidency in the January 18, 2026 election. He grew up in Lisbon, studied Economics at the London School of Economics and earned an MBA from NOVA University Lisbon. He held executive positions at Compal, Nutricafés, Privado Holding, and TVI, and served as president of Turismo de Portugal (2013-2016), overseeing tourism industry growth during his tenure. He was elected as the Liberal Initiative's first parliamentary deputy in October 2019, led the party (2019-2023) while it grew from 1 to 8 seats with 5% of votes in 2022, and was elected European Parliament member in 2024. He announced his presidential candidacy in August 2025, backed by the Liberal Initiative.
Political Philosophy:
Cotrim de Figueiredo champions liberal economics—tax reduction, labour market liberalization, and welfare reform—alongside cultural and secular liberalism. His campaign emphasizes "Culture, Knowledge and Growth," positioning himself as representing younger voters alienated by traditional candidates, and explicitly states he expects a "second-round" runoff result. He advocates for a future-prepared Portugal distinct from current political offerings.
The Democratic Alliance is a centre-right coalition primarily composed of the Social Democratic Party (PSD) with 89 seats and the CDS – People's Party (CDS-PP) with 2 seats. - Major Political Parties and Leaders - Centre-Right: Democratic Alliance (AD) - Leader: Luís Montenegro (Prime Minister) - Ideology: Liberal conservatism, pro-Europeanism
The Social Democratic Party, despite its name, occupies the centre-right of Portugal's political spectrum. Montenegro, who became Prime Minister in April 2024, leads Portugal's current minority government. The PSD has been one of Portugal's two dominant parties since 1974, having formed nine governments including four with absolute majorities. Montenegro, a former party leader from 1996-1999, was elected with the highest approval rating among party leaders at 10.7 points out of 20. The Democratic Alliance coalition includes the smaller CDS – People's Party, a Christian democratic party that has historically been the PSD's coalition partner. Together, they govern without a parliamentary majority, requiring case-by-case support from opposition parties to pass legislation.
The Social Democratic Party ('Partido Social Democrata' or 'PSD') is a liberal-conservative political party in Portugal that is the leading partner of the The Democratic Alliance (AD) which is the country's ruling party, with Prime Minister Luís Montenegro.
The Social Democratic Party, despite its name, occupies the centre-right of Portugal's political spectrum. Luís Montenegro, who became Prime Minister in April 2024, leads Portugal's current minority government. The PSD has been one of Portugal's two dominant parties since 1974, having formed nine governments including four with absolute majorities. Montenegro, a former party leader from 1996-1999, was elected with the highest approval rating among party leaders at 10.7 points out of 20.
The Democratic Alliance is a centre-right coalition that includes the smaller CDS – People's Party, a Christian democratic party that has historically been the PSD's coalition partner. Together, they govern without a parliamentary majority, requiring case-by-case support from opposition parties to pass legislation.
Pedro Passos Coelho is a Portuguese politician who served as Prime Minister from 2011 to 2015 and led the Social Democratic Party (Partido Social Democrata or PSD). His choice to stay silent during the presidential run-off matters because, as a former PM and centre‑right leader, his endorsements or comments could influence PSD voters ahead of the 8 February vote.
Left parties including the PCP signalled an overriding priority to prevent André Ventura from winning the presidency, with party figures saying they will support the candidate best placed to defeat him even if they have reservations. Reporting notes the communists framed this as defending democracy against a perceived threat and urged coordinated action rather than formal full endorsements. Voters who oppose Ventura should follow statements from left‑wing parties ahead of the run‑off as coalition signals may affect turnout and tactical voting.
The PCP is the Portuguese Communist Party (Partido Comunista Português), a historic left-wing party founded in 1921. It remains influential in some trade unions and local councils, usually wins single-digit percentages in national elections, and often runs as part of the CDU coalition with the Greens. Voters and those tracking coalition-building should note the PCP’s capacity to mobilise grassroots support and influence left-wing alliances.
António Filipe is a politician from the PCP (Partido Comunista Português) who, in this story, acknowledged that his election results fell short and said the party would join forces to oppose what it called a 'serious threat to democracy'. His remarks indicate the PCP intends to be active in post-election alliances rather than withdrawing from national debates. Voters and those following left-wing politics should pay attention to his and the PCP's next moves.
Tactical voting means choosing a less-preferred candidate to achieve a strategic outcome—for example concentrating support to ensure a preferred candidate reaches the second round (segunda volta) or to block a rival. Party leaders urge it when they want to avoid splitting votes among similar candidates and increase the chance of a favourable runoff result.
With the presidential election heading to a second round, António José Seguro (31%) and André Ventura (23.5%) face a run-off that will shape the country’s direction. The piece argues the next President should prioritise policies that attract and integrate immigrants to meet labour and social needs, while noting Seguro’s bid to present himself as an independent ‘president of a new era’ and Ventura’s claim to lead the right. The outcome will determine whether inclusionist immigration and integration become central to the presidency or whether a rightward agenda takes precedence.
Independent candidate Jorge Pinto fell short of 1% of the vote, even as the left-wing party Livre posted its best-ever result in the legislative elections. The presidential race advanced to a run-off between António José Seguro — who cast himself as a unifying 'president for all' — and André Ventura, who framed his campaign against the socialist space, underscoring sharp political divisions heading into the second round.
Polls have closed across Portugal: António José Seguro won the first round and progresses to a runoff against André Ventura. Support from the left is limited, while centre-right parties PSD and Iniciativa Liberal refuse to endorse either finalist. The episode analyses the winners and losers of the night—those who exceeded expectations and those who faltered—examining the political consequences for candidates, party backers and the prime minister, and presents all election-night speeches in a single podcast for listeners to assess tone and tactics ahead of the second round.
Observador explains the steps between rounds: when new ballot papers are prepared, how the second round campaign schedule starts, and how voting abroad and early voting are organised ahead of the run‑off. The piece outlines practical deadlines and the funding rules that apply to candidates in the next stage of the contest. Voters, expatriates and campaign teams should check official notices about deadlines, consular voting windows and any registration requirements ahead of the second round.
Reaching the second round means no candidate obtained an absolute majority (>50%) in the first ballot, so the top two candidates face a runoff to decide the winner, usually a few weeks later. For expats following a campaign, the runoff intensifies media attention and often forces candidates to broaden appeal to voters who supported eliminated candidates in the first round.
International media focused on the surprise outcome of Portugal’s presidential first round, highlighting a runoff between socialist António José Seguro and far-right leader André Ventura. Coverage emphasised Seguro’s unexpected advance ‘against all predictions’, the growing prominence of the far right in Portuguese politics, and the wider implications for national policy and the upcoming campaign ahead of the decisive second round.
Ten mainland Portuguese districts — Porto, Faro, Setúbal, Viana do Castelo, Lisbon, Leiria, Beja, Aveiro, Coimbra and Braga — are under a yellow warning for rough seas from 12:00 on Tuesday until 09:00 on Wednesday. IPMA forecasts waves of up to 5 metres and mainland conditions of very cloudy skies (becoming mostly clear in the south) with isolated light precipitation in the north and centre. The alert signals increased marine risk and warrants caution for coastal activities and maritime operations.
The PSP has launched a month‑long school operation, 'Violence? No, thank you!', delivering awareness activities for the whole school community on school-based violence, weapons possession/use and juvenile delinquency. Targeting pupils in the 3rd cycle of basic education and secondary schools, the campaign combines prevention and legal deterrence by warning minors that violent acts can carry criminal consequences. The initiative aims to reduce incidents, improve reporting and engage schools, families and staff in safeguarding measures.