Election analysis news in Portugal

Latest news and stories about election analysis in Portugal for expats and residents.

Recent articles

Presidential election: the rhetoric of moderation won out over the rhetoric of polarisation

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Filipe Teles examines an election night that produced an unexpected run-off between António José Seguro and André Ventura, where the rhetoric of moderation ultimately prevailed over polarisation. Both front-runners immediately framed the next stage as a choice — Seguro pitching democracy and moderation versus hatred, Ventura promising change against a corrupt establishment — while the broader results energised the PS, unsettled the government and confirmed the rise of Chega as a disruptive force. The piece assesses how campaign language, party dynamics and voter reactions set the terms for the decisive run-off and the likely political consequences for Portugal.

Público19 Jan

Presidential election: the rhetoric of moderation won out over the rhetoric of polarisation

Miguel Morgado: "It would be better if the left and the liberals stopped intimidating the public. It is anti-democratic to say that anyone who is not with Seguro is a fascist"

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Carlos Guimarães Pinto, Cristina Rodrigues and Miguel Morgado analyse the results and political consequences of the presidential election on the Linhas Direitas podcast.

Expresso22 Jan

Miguel Morgado: "It would be better if the left and the liberals stopped intimidating the public. It is anti-democratic to say that anyone who is not with Seguro is a fascist"

Ventura is worth fewer votes than Chega in 12 or 13 places but nearly three times his 2021 value (2026 vs 2021)

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Comparing solo votes in the presidential race with the party's votes in the legislative elections, Ventura is worth a little less than Chega but also much more than he was in the 2021 presidential election — he gained votes in every electoral district in the country, especially in Porto and Lisbon. Analysis based on CNN Portugal's Comparómetro.

CNN Portugal20 Jan

Ventura is worth fewer votes than Chega in 12 or 13 places but nearly three times his 2021 value (2026 vs 2021)

Montenegro's stance means he is resigned to Ventura as President of the Republic

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CNN Portugal commentator Bernardino Soares gives his reading of election night, taking the opportunity to condemn the prime minister's 'tacitism' and to anticipate the next steps of the Portuguese left.

CNN Portugal19 Jan

Montenegro's stance means he is resigned to Ventura as President of the Republic

Seguro's votes also "come from centre-right voters who have liked him since the Troika years when he was almost an ally of Passos Coelho"

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CNN Portugal commentator Anabela Neves analyses the electorate that put António José Seguro in the lead in the race for Belém in the first round.

CNN Portugal19 Jan

Seguro's votes also "come from centre-right voters who have liked him since the Troika years when he was almost an ally of Passos Coelho"

Seguro won in more municipalities than the AD, is worth nearly twice as much as IL, Livre, CDU and BE combined, triumphed in 1,606 more parishes than the PS — and has more votes than Cotrim and Gouveia e Melo combined

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Another conclusion: it would take three to do to Seguro what Seguro did to Ventura. An analysis based on CNN Portugal's Comparometer.

CNN Portugal19 Jan

Seguro won in more municipalities than the AD, is worth nearly twice as much as IL, Livre, CDU and BE combined, triumphed in 1,606 more parishes than the PS — and has more votes than Cotrim and Gouveia e Melo combined

André Ventura will certainly gain ground in the second round, more than many expect

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Executive director Pedro Santos Guerreiro explains how CNN Portugal's “Comparómetro” works (https://cnnportugal.iol.pt/eleicoes/presidenciais2026/resultados/comparometro), which allows comparing the presidential results with the most recent municipal and legislative elections, and what conclusions can be drawn about the second-round results.

CNN Portugal19 Jan

André Ventura will certainly gain ground in the second round, more than many expect

What explains the results of this presidential election?

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António José Seguro won, but will face André Ventura in a run-off. Forty years on, the country has returned to a second round. What happened in the presidential election? Analysis with Miguel Pinheiro.

Observador19 Jan

What explains the results of this presidential election?

Seguro achieved better results in districts that voted for AD in the legislative elections

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António José Seguro is, among the candidates who received the most votes, the one with the largest differences in vote share across electoral constituencies.

Público19 Jan

Seguro achieved better results in districts that voted for AD in the legislative elections

Does Ventura score higher than Chega and Cotrim higher than IL? Would Gouveia e Melo, if we were in 2021, have finished second? And is the left growing in candidates but shrinking in votes? All true

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These are some of the scenarios we were able to draw from the Comparómetro, a CNN Portugal tool for these elections that you can also use. But there’s more.

CNN Portugal19 Jan

Does Ventura score higher than Chega and Cotrim higher than IL? Would Gouveia e Melo, if we were in 2021, have finished second? And is the left growing in candidates but shrinking in votes? All true

We are choosing a figure who will represent the country in a historical cycle of difficulties and uncertainties that perhaps did not exist in 1986

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Historian José Manuel Sardica outlines the commonalities between these elections and the 1986 presidential election, the only one to elect a president in a second round.

CNN Portugal18 Jan

We are choosing a figure who will represent the country in a historical cycle of difficulties and uncertainties that perhaps did not exist in 1986

Presidential election: uncertainties, candidates and strategies with one week to go

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Listen here to a podcast featuring an in-depth analysis of the presidential campaign, where the only certainty is that nothing is certain.

Expresso10 Jan

Presidential election: uncertainties, candidates and strategies with one week to go

Cotrim de Figueiredo is ahead of Gouveia e Melo. A few months ago, no one would have believed this scenario

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Margarida Davim analyses the data from CNN Portugal's tracking poll published on Friday, highlighting João Cotrim de Figueiredo's jump in voting intentions, placing him ahead of Henrique Gouveia e Melo.

CNN Portugal9 Jan

Cotrim de Figueiredo is ahead of Gouveia e Melo. A few months ago, no one would have believed this scenario

What do the polls say about the presidential election?

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Alexandre Picoto (Pitagórica), António Gomes (GfK Metris), António Salvador (Intercampus) and João António (Cesop / Católica) were the special guests on this edition of Vichyssoise, halfway through the race to Belém.

Observador8 Jan

What do the polls say about the presidential election?

Marques Mendes isn't clear about what he says and is harming himself

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Pedro Tadeu, a commentator for CNN Portugal, analyses the debate that brought the eleven presidential candidates face to face.

CNN Portugal7 Jan

Marques Mendes isn't clear about what he says and is harming himself

Portugal

1802: Miguel, the future absolutist king who would seize the throne from his niece Maria II and fight the Liberal Wars of 1832–34, is born at the Palace of Queluz, son of João VI and Carlota Joaquina.
1969:The 1969 election under Caetano
Portugal holds its first legislative election under Marcelo Caetano. Although no opposition candidate is elected, the vote brings into the National Assembly the 'liberal wing' of Sá Carneiro, Pinto Balsemão and Miller Guerra, who would press for reform from within.
Read more Dictatorship and the Estado Novo, 1926–1974
1980: Marcelo Caetano, last Prime Minister of the Estado Novo, dies of a heart attack in Rio de Janeiro aged 74, in exile in Brazil since the Carnation Revolution.

Elsewhere

1863: Representatives of eleven London clubs and schools meet at the Freemasons' Tavern to found the Football Association, which went on to codify the rules of the modern game.

When did Portugal join the European Union?

Question 1 of 25 • 2 min quiz