São José Almeida argues that political stability in Portugal in 2026 is not guaranteed: the next occupant of Belém Palace may refuse to follow Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa’s de facto rule that a rejected State Budget should automatically lead to elections. That shift in presidential interpretation would alter the incentives around budget votes, policy-making and election timing, introducing renewed uncertainty into the political landscape.

A new IPPS/ISCTE opinion poll finds that almost half of Portuguese expect 2026 to bring continuity at the national level, with a majority forecasting political stability next year. Respondents were asked about expectations for their families, the nation and the international situation: while domestic outlooks skew towards stability and steady consumption confidence, many express concern about a possible deterioration in international affairs. The results highlight a cautious public mood—optimistic about internal political continuity but wary of external risks.

The Prime Minister said he expects his government to remain in office for the next three and a half years without calling elections, signalling confidence in political stability and the ability to pursue a sustained policy agenda without an early poll.