An IPAM analysis of about 2,104 social‑media posts finds Luís Marques Mendes has the least digital traction while candidates differ between volume (André Ventura) and engagement (Jorge Pinto); Cotrim combines reach and involvement in a more balanced way. The study highlights how digital strategies vary across platforms and could shape mobilisation in the final campaign phase. Political observers and voters should note online traction does not directly equal votes but can influence turnout and narrative dynamics.

Day nine of the Tracking Poll, reported by Pedro Benevides, shows a growing three-way dynamic in the Portuguese presidential race: António José Seguro, André Ventura and João Cotrim de Figueiredo are pulling ahead of Henrique Gouveia e Melo and Luís Marques Mendes. The pattern suggests the contest may crystallise into a three-way fight in the final campaign days, and — with the exception of Chega's leader — most main contenders have yet to secure full backing from their own bases.

A LabCom study at the University of Beira Interior finds disinformation linked to the presidential campaign has reached over 7.7 million views on social media since November 2025, with André Ventura associated with about 85.7% of identified cases. Multiple national outlets report the figures consistently, noting the high concentration around one candidate and the scale of reach. Voters and social-media users should be cautious about viral claims and cross-check major assertions with reputable outlets.

Day 6 of the tracking poll reshuffles the leading pack: António Seguro returns to first place, André Ventura is overtaken and drops to third, while João Cotrim de Figueiredo continues to climb and for the first time joins the leading pair in contention for a second-round spot. The instant poll records a five-way technical tie among top contenders, reflecting continued volatility. The aggregated three‑day sample (7–9 Jan 2026) comprises 608 telephone interviews (CATI), drawn via randomly generated mobile numbers with landlines used when necessary; sampling quotas covered gender, three age brackets and 20 geographic strata. At a 95.5% confidence level the maximum margin of error is ±4.06%; 1,201 contact attempts produced a 50.62% response rate and undecided voters were distributed proportionally. Campaigns responded briskly: Mendes’s team dismisses the polls, insisting he will finish first and advance to the second round, while Rangel predicted a surprise from Mendes; columnist Miguel Esteves Cardoso noted an unpredictable, anti‑poll restlessness among voters. Technical direction was by Rita Marques da Silva and the full technical sheet has been deposited with ERC for consultation.

António José Seguro urged supporters to temper their euphoria, stressing that “nothing is won” until all votes are counted and the race is decided. His caution came amid a heated campaign atmosphere, with rival candidate Gouveia e Melo publicly lambasting Seguro as “shameless” after receiving explicit backing from Rui Rio — a development that underlines sharp interpersonal tensions and the high stakes of a closely contested presidential vote. The intervention is aimed at preserving discipline among backers and managing expectations as results approach.

The RTP debate — the only one to include all 11 candidates — centred on personalised attacks and contrasting styles. Ventura and José Seguro were frequent targets while Rui Rio’s former ally Mendes emerged as the most aggressive, clashing chiefly with Admiral Gouveia e Melo; the two men’s exchange became the debate’s defining confrontation. Other notable dynamics included mutual restraint between Almirante and the Chega leader, André Pestana’s bold interventions, Manuel João Vieira’s ironic tone, and even criticism directed at Marcelo, suggesting a campaign increasingly shaped by personality and tactical barbs rather than detailed policy battles.

The 11-candidate presidential debate, held in two instalments across three topics, was overshadowed by a sustained personal clash between PSD’s Marques Mendes and independent candidate Henrique Gouveia e Melo. Mendes publicly rejected allegations of impropriety — insisting “I am not a facilitator of business deals” — and branded parts of the admiral’s conduct as “vulgarity,” a dispute that punctuated exchanges throughout the evening. Amid this confrontation, Jorge Pinto’s near withdrawal and his declaration that he would not stand in the way of a potential Seguro victory illustrated how interpersonal attacks and tactical moves risked eclipsing substantive policy debate.

Humberto Correia frames his presidential bid around his personal experience of poverty, presenting himself as a candidate who understands the everyday suffering of the Portuguese. He singles out the housing sector as a ‚disaster‘ and signals that addressing property, cost-of-living and related social stresses will be central to his campaign, positioning his lived experience as the basis for policy credibility.

Luís Marques Mendes has the most expensive campaign and António José Seguro is the most optimistic in estimating the subsidy to be received. Gouveia e Melo expects to receive €700,000 and Ventura €400,000.