Day 6 of the tracking poll reshuffles the leading pack: António Seguro returns to first place, André Ventura is overtaken and drops to third, while João Cotrim de Figueiredo continues to climb and for the first time joins the leading pair in contention for a second-round spot. The instant poll records a five-way technical tie among top contenders, reflecting continued volatility. The aggregated three‑day sample (7–9 Jan 2026) comprises 608 telephone interviews (CATI), drawn via randomly generated mobile numbers with landlines used when necessary; sampling quotas covered gender, three age brackets and 20 geographic strata. At a 95.5% confidence level the maximum margin of error is ±4.06%; 1,201 contact attempts produced a 50.62% response rate and undecided voters were distributed proportionally. Campaigns responded briskly: Mendes’s team dismisses the polls, insisting he will finish first and advance to the second round, while Rangel predicted a surprise from Mendes; columnist Miguel Esteves Cardoso noted an unpredictable, anti‑poll restlessness among voters. Technical direction was by Rita Marques da Silva and the full technical sheet has been deposited with ERC for consultation.
Tracking poll, day 6: Seguro returns to first place, Ventura is overtaken and drops to third
Sunday, 11 January 2026RSS

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Other news coverage of this topic
- Tracking poll 'made Cotrim de Figueiredo realise there is a lack of conviction on Marques Mendes's campaign, which he could exploit' • CNN Portugal
- Tracking poll, day 6: Seguro again in front, Cotrim rises to second, Ventura on the podium • CNN Portugal
- Mendes: 'I will go through to the second round in first place' • Observador
- Admiral 'weary of cynicism' • Correio da Manhã
- Ventura wants to know which side Montenegro will take in the second round of the presidential election • Correio da Manhã
- Marques Mendes raises the bar: 'I will come first' • Observador
- On the ninth day of the official campaign, Marques Mendes raises the bar: "I will advance to the second round in first place" • RTP Notícias
- The trivialisation of tragedy • Correio da Manhã
- Politics, Deconstructed • Correio da Manhã
- A Little Fondness for Surprise • Público
- Ventura, the Government/Chega alliance and the second round • Público
- Cotrim de Figueiredo accuses rivals of 'lack of greatness' • RTP Notícias
- Seguro returns to the lead, Cotrim moves into second • Observador
- "Alguns comportamentos de Cotrim caem no ridículo": Marques Mendes deixa críticas a adversário à direita • Correio da Manhã









