Day 6 of the tracking poll reshuffles the leading pack: António Seguro returns to first place, André Ventura is overtaken and drops to third, while João Cotrim de Figueiredo continues to climb and for the first time joins the leading pair in contention for a second-round spot. The instant poll records a five-way technical tie among top contenders, reflecting continued volatility. The aggregated three‑day sample (7–9 Jan 2026) comprises 608 telephone interviews (CATI), drawn via randomly generated mobile numbers with landlines used when necessary; sampling quotas covered gender, three age brackets and 20 geographic strata. At a 95.5% confidence level the maximum margin of error is ±4.06%; 1,201 contact attempts produced a 50.62% response rate and undecided voters were distributed proportionally. Campaigns responded briskly: Mendes’s team dismisses the polls, insisting he will finish first and advance to the second round, while Rangel predicted a surprise from Mendes; columnist Miguel Esteves Cardoso noted an unpredictable, anti‑poll restlessness among voters. Technical direction was by Rita Marques da Silva and the full technical sheet has been deposited with ERC for consultation.
Tracking poll, day 6: Seguro returns to first place, Ventura is overtaken and drops to third
Sunday, 11 January 2026RSS

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- A Little Fondness for Surprise12:05am, 11 Jan 2026 • Público
- Ventura, the Government/Chega alliance and the second round8:50pm, 10 Jan 2026 • Público
- Cotrim de Figueiredo accuses rivals of 'lack of greatness'8:38pm, 10 Jan 2026 • RTP Notícias
- Seguro returns to the lead, Cotrim moves into second8:34pm, 10 Jan 2026 • Observador
- "Alguns comportamentos de Cotrim caem no ridículo": Marques Mendes deixa críticas a adversário à direita6:18pm, 10 Jan 2026 • Correio da Manhã





