Polling news in Portugal

Latest news and stories about polling in Portugal for expats and residents.

Recent articles

Tracking poll, second round, day 2: Montenegro was right not to declare support (and if he were to, it should be for Seguro)

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A daily poll finds most Portuguese want defeated presidential candidates to declare endorsements and that any such support should favour António José Seguro. The piece argues Montenegro was right not to declare backing, but if he did it should be for Seguro, while emphasising that centre-right support for Seguro is not a blank cheque and would bring concrete political responsibility. It also notes former PSD leader Rui Rio has publicly said he will vote for Seguro ahead of the 8 February second round against André Ventura.

CNN Portugal28 Jan

Tracking poll, second round, day 2: Montenegro was right not to declare support (and if he were to, it should be for Seguro)

Tracking poll, day 9: a trend is beginning to form for the presidential election

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Day nine of the Tracking Poll, reported by Pedro Benevides, shows a growing three-way dynamic in the Portuguese presidential race: António José Seguro, André Ventura and João Cotrim de Figueiredo are pulling ahead of Henrique Gouveia e Melo and Luís Marques Mendes. The pattern suggests the contest may crystallise into a three-way fight in the final campaign days, and — with the exception of Chega's leader — most main contenders have yet to secure full backing from their own bases.

CNN Portugal13 Jan

Tracking poll, day 9: a trend is beginning to form for the presidential election

Tracking poll, day 6: Seguro returns to first place, Ventura is overtaken and drops to third

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Day 6 of the tracking poll reshuffles the leading pack: António Seguro returns to first place, André Ventura is overtaken and drops to third, while João Cotrim de Figueiredo continues to climb and for the first time joins the leading pair in contention for a second-round spot. The instant poll records a five-way technical tie among top contenders, reflecting continued volatility. The aggregated three‑day sample (7–9 Jan 2026) comprises 608 telephone interviews (CATI), drawn via randomly generated mobile numbers with landlines used when necessary; sampling quotas covered gender, three age brackets and 20 geographic strata. At a 95.5% confidence level the maximum margin of error is ±4.06%; 1,201 contact attempts produced a 50.62% response rate and undecided voters were distributed proportionally. Campaigns responded briskly: Mendes’s team dismisses the polls, insisting he will finish first and advance to the second round, while Rangel predicted a surprise from Mendes; columnist Miguel Esteves Cardoso noted an unpredictable, anti‑poll restlessness among voters. Technical direction was by Rita Marques da Silva and the full technical sheet has been deposited with ERC for consultation.

CNN Portugal11 Jan

Tracking poll, day 6: Seguro returns to first place, Ventura is overtaken and drops to third

DN/Aximage Barometer: Carneiro edges ahead in PS-AD-Chega technical tie, but Ventura is the opposition leader

🏛️ Government 💶 Finance#polling+2 more

The latest DN/Aximage Barometer reveals a three-way political deadlock in Portugal. Following the end of a cycle of elections, the PS, AD, and Chega are in a technical tie within the 4.2% margin of error. José Luís Carneiro's PS leads with 27%, followed by the AD coalition at 26.6% and Chega at 25.8%. Despite the PS's slight lead in voting intentions, 59% of respondents identify André Ventura as the primary opposition leader, compared to 21% for Carneiro. While Carneiro holds a narrow lead in trust for the role of Prime Minister, Luís Montenegro remains the preferred choice overall.

Diário de Notícias9 Mar

DN/Aximage Barometer: Carneiro edges ahead in PS-AD-Chega technical tie, but Ventura is the opposition leader

Putin and Trump are the world leaders least popular with the Portuguese, according to a poll

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Tied for last place on this unfavourable 'podium' were Xi Jinping and Benjamin Netanyahu.

Correio da Manhã3 Feb

Putin and Trump are the world leaders least popular with the Portuguese, according to a poll

Tracking poll, second round, day 5: Seguro and Ventura lose ground; 'protest' vote gains strength

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Almost half of respondents believe the country's unity will depend on who wins. But those who anticipate greater division are gaining strength.

CNN Portugal31 Jan

Tracking poll, second round, day 5: Seguro and Ventura lose ground; 'protest' vote gains strength

1h. Seguro and Ventura closer in the polls

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Pitagórica poll shows Seguro falling to 59% and Ventura rising to 28%. The gap narrows to 4.7 percentage points with 10 days until the second round, already including the debate in the figures.

Observador30 Jan

1h. Seguro and Ventura closer in the polls

Tracking poll, second round, day 2: a third of votes for Seguro are against Ventura, a quarter of votes for Ventura are against Seguro

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Seguro continues to lead comfortably in voting intentions. Daily polling shows the firmness of voting intentions but also the reasons for mobilisation behind each candidate. See all the data here.

CNN Portugal28 Jan

Tracking poll, second round, day 2: a third of votes for Seguro are against Ventura, a quarter of votes for Ventura are against Seguro

Polling Radar: Which candidate is ahead?

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Observador's Polling Radar is a tool that shows the estimated support for each presidential candidate based on all polls published by media outlets.

Observador26 Jan

Polling Radar: Which candidate is ahead?

Second round — the exercise of 'uncertainty' and 'predictability'

🏛️ Government#polling+3 more

An analysis of the second round of voting, exploring the tension between uncertainty and predictability in electoral outcomes, including the roles of polls, campaign strategies and voter behaviour.

Diário de Notícias25 Jan

Second round — the exercise of 'uncertainty' and 'predictability'

Raimundo criticises the 'manoeuvre' of the polling operation and calls for Ventura's 'defeat'

🏛️ Government#polling+3 more

The PCP secretary-general today criticised the 'manoeuvre of the polling operation' in the presidential elections, saying the ballot will be marked by 'conditionality', and reiterated his appeal to vote for Seguro to 'ensure Ventura's defeat'.

RTP Notícias24 Jan

Raimundo criticises the 'manoeuvre' of the polling operation and calls for Ventura's 'defeat'

Presidential election: New poll puts Seguro ahead of Ventura with 70% of the vote

🏛️ Government#polling+3 more

António José Seguro once again emerges as the favourite for the Presidency of the Republic, securing 70% of voting intentions in this second round. André Ventura manages to gather 30% of voting intentions. The data come from a poll by the Centre for Studies and Opinion Polling (Cesop) of the Catholic University for RTP, Público and Antena ...

ECO23 Jan

Presidential election: New poll puts Seguro ahead of Ventura with 70% of the vote

Polls: Seguro is favourite in a run-off against Ventura

🏛️ Government#polling+3 more

All the polls in recent days that tried to anticipate run-off scenarios and examined the Seguro vs. Ventura matchup are unanimous: Seguro is the favourite with a very comfortable lead.

Observador18 Jan

Polls: Seguro is favourite in a run-off against Ventura

Tracking poll, second round, day 2: Montenegro was right not to declare support (and if he were to, it should be for Seguro)

🏛️ Government 🏖️ Daily Life#polling+3 more

CNN Portugal28 Jan

Tracking poll, day 9: a trend is beginning to form for the presidential election

🏖️ Daily Life 🏛️ Government 💡 Technology#polling+3 more

CNN Portugal13 Jan

Tracking poll, day 6: Seguro returns to first place, Ventura is overtaken and drops to third

💡 Technology 🏖️ Daily Life 🏛️ Government#polling+3 more

CNN Portugal11 Jan

DN/Aximage Barometer: Carneiro edges ahead in PS-AD-Chega technical tie, but Ventura is the opposition leader

🏛️ Government 💶 Finance#polling+2 more

Diário de Notícias9 Mar

Putin and Trump are the world leaders least popular with the Portuguese, according to a poll

🏛️ Government#polling+3 more

Tied for last place on this unfavourable 'podium' were Xi Jinping and Benjamin Netanyahu.

Correio da Manhã3 Feb

Tracking poll, second round, day 5: Seguro and Ventura lose ground; 'protest' vote gains strength

🏛️ Government#polling+3 more

Almost half of respondents believe the country's unity will depend on who wins. But those who anticipate greater division are gaining strength.

CNN Portugal31 Jan

1h. Seguro and Ventura closer in the polls

🏛️ Government 🏖️ Daily Life#polling+3 more

Pitagórica poll shows Seguro falling to 59% and Ventura rising to 28%. The gap narrows to 4.7 percentage points with 10 days until the second round, already including the debate in the figures.

Observador30 Jan

Tracking poll, second round, day 2: a third of votes for Seguro are against Ventura, a quarter of votes for Ventura are against Seguro

🏛️ Government 🏖️ Daily Life#polling+3 more

Seguro continues to lead comfortably in voting intentions. Daily polling shows the firmness of voting intentions but also the reasons for mobilisation behind each candidate. See all the data here.

CNN Portugal28 Jan

Polling Radar: Which candidate is ahead?

🏛️ Government#polling+3 more

Observador's Polling Radar is a tool that shows the estimated support for each presidential candidate based on all polls published by media outlets.

Observador26 Jan

Second round — the exercise of 'uncertainty' and 'predictability'

🏛️ Government#polling+3 more

An analysis of the second round of voting, exploring the tension between uncertainty and predictability in electoral outcomes, including the roles of polls, campaign strategies and voter behaviour.

Diário de Notícias25 Jan

Observador18 Jan

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