Projection: Seguro wins, Ventura ahead of Cotrim in a statistical tie

Gouveia e Melo and Marques Mendes out of contention for the run-off

CNN Portugal16h ago

Tracking poll, FINAL DAY: Seguro always wins, Ventura always loses. All scenarios for the run-off

Analysis of all possible matchups for the presidential run-off.

CNN Portugal16 Jan

Tracking poll, day 11: here are the results from the last day of the daily survey

The presidential campaign ends with three candidates in a technical tie for the two likely second-round places. António José Seguro leads with 25.1%, followed by André Ventura with 23% and João Cotrim de Figueiredo with 22.3%, figures calculated after allocating undecided voters.

CNN Portugal16 Jan

Appeal not to demonise opinion polls to prevent citizens from opting out

António Salvador, of Intercampus, says that polls are “very relevant”, but it is necessary to understand the difference between the various types.

CNN Portugal15 Jan

There is difficulty in interpreting what a poll is and an expectation that a poll is a prediction

Alexandre Picoto, of Pitagórica, said that polls “have entered the political fray” and that the institutes responsible for them should not have to respond to politicians' criticisms.

CNN Portugal15 Jan

I don't at all believe that the polls are producing such disparate results

António Gomes, of GfK, describes the phrase 'there are polls for every taste' as 'unfortunate' and says there are 'generally minimal differences' between the various surveys.

CNN Portugal15 Jan

We are facing the most closely fought election in recent decades, even more so than in 1986

Paulo Ferreira comments on the development of voting intentions in CNN Portugal's tracking poll, with candidates André Ventura, António José Seguro and João Cotrim de Figueiredo positioning themselves at the forefront for the second round.

CNN Portugal15 Jan

The candidate best placed to secure a place in the second round is, without doubt, André Ventura

Gonçalo Ribeiro Telles comments on the evolution of voting intentions in CNN Portugal's tracking poll, saying that “it is practically clear” that André Ventura will go through to the second round.

CNN Portugal15 Jan

Let's go to the polls. The fear of being left out of the second round

Conflicting polls reignite the race to Belém.

RTP Notícias15 Jan

Polls prompt a 'public appeal'. Cotrim writes to Montenegro seeking support

In the wake of the Católica University poll for RTP, Antena 1 and Público, which indicates a presidential second round featuring André Ventura, João Cotrim Figueiredo or António José Seguro, the former IL leader sends a missive to Montenegro urging 'a vote for the PSD' and even quoting Sá Carneiro.

RTP Notícias14 Jan

Cotrim asks Montenegro for support; Mendes and the admiral try to counter the polls

After a poll putting them outside the first round, Gouveia e Melo and Marques Mendes are trying on the campaign trail to show they can still make it into the first round. But more polls are yet to be published and there are two days left until the campaign ends.

Expresso14 Jan

Are the presidential elections now down to three candidates? David Dinis answers

The poll from the Catholic University, conducted for Público and RTP, confirms that there are three standout candidates in the race for the two places in the presidential second round. The downward trend for both Marques Mendes and Gouveia e Melo leaves these two candidates, in the final week of the campaign, nine percentage points behind second place. Paulo Baldaia speaks with Expresso's deputy editor David Dinis, on the Expresso da Manhã programme, to try to understand how we got here.

Expresso14 Jan

The day after: poll dispels the dark cloud over Cotrim's campaign

The Catholic University poll, which puts Cotrim de Figueiredo in third place while he still contests the second round, was the lifeline the liberal needed to dispel the dark cloud that had settled over his campaign in recent days.

RTP Notícias14 Jan

'It's not enough to advance; we must come first': Seguro raises the bar and aims to overtake Ventura

On the day a poll was published showing a tie for first place between António José Seguro and André Ventura, the Socialist candidate set the goal of breaking away into the lead 'in the name of democracy and the democratic future of our country'.

Expresso13 Jan

Catarina Martins, António Filipe and Jorge Pinto downplay opinion polls

On the left, the three candidates whom the poll leaves out of the race for a run-off say the only poll that matters is on election day.

RTP Notícias13 Jan

Mendes in fifth place in the polls urges tactical voting and receives support from the Finance Minister: "Don't fall for siren songs"

Exactly at the moment the Antena 1 and RTP poll for the Catholic University of Portugal was released, Luís Marques Mendes took to the stage on Tuesday at the Ansião Cultural Centre in Leiria.

RTP Notícias13 Jan

9pm — Presidential election: Ventura first in latest poll

A poll says that André Ventura, António José Seguro or Cotrim de Figueiredo could reach the second round. Also, in 2025 people waited less time in the country’s emergency departments. Head.

Observador13 Jan

Cotrim de Figueiredo says poll gives Portuguese voters a much clearer choice

João Cotrim de Figueiredo says this poll, published on Tuesday, confirms that “this is the only candidacy that is growing in every poll”.

RTP Notícias13 Jan

Tracking poll, day 9: a trend is beginning to form for the presidential election

CNN Portugal13 Jan

Tracking poll, day 9: Seguro, Cotrim and Ventura pull away in the leading trio

On the day Ventura overtakes Seguro for the first time in women's voting intentions, the daily poll shows a further drop for Marques Mendes (the fifth straight) and for Gouveia e Melo. The number of undecided voters has returned to minimal levels.

CNN Portugal13 Jan

When information is inconvenient: polls, tracking polls and the duty to inform

A poll is not a prophecy. Article by Alexandre Picoto, administrator of Pitagórica

CNN Portugal13 Jan

Gouveia e Melo desvaloriza as sondagens: "É um instrumento sujeito a interpretações políticas que me parecem desadequadas"

CNN Portugal13 Jan

Gouveia e Melo drops from statistical lead in polls

Who is Henrique Gouveia e Melo?

• 2026 Presidential Candidate
• Party: Independent
• Retired Portuguese Navy officer
• Former coordinator of Portugal's COVID-19 Vaccination Taskforce
• Centrist pragmatist

Henrique Eduardo Passaláqua de Gouveia e Melo (born November 21, 1960, in Quelimane, Mozambique) is a retired Portuguese Navy Admiral running for president in the January 18, 2026 election as an independent candidate. He entered the Naval School in 1979 and built a 45-year military career, commanding submarines NRP Delfim and NRP Barracuda, the frigate NRP Vasco da Gama, and serving as Naval Commander (2017-2020) and Chief of Naval Staff (2021-2024). His national prominence surged in 2021 when he was appointed coordinator of Portugal's COVID-19 vaccination task force, which achieved the world's highest vaccination rates, earning him a spot on Jornal de Negócios' list of 50 Most Powerful People. He announced his presidential campaign on May 29, 2025, backed by the People's Monarchist Party. ​

Political Philosophy:

Gouveia e Melo positions himself as a "centrist pragmatist" focused on institutional balance, effective governance, and consensus-building. He advocates for demanding presidential oversight of democratic institutions without institutional opposition to government, emphasizing "institutional loyalty" paired with rigorous accountability. His platform prioritizes growth, social cohesion, and equitable development, rejecting ideology for pragmatic results-oriented leadership

CNN Portugal12 JanCorreio da Manhã13 JanRTP Notícias13 JanObservador12 Jan

Tracking poll, day 6: Seguro returns to first place, Ventura is overtaken and drops to third

CNN Portugal11 Jan