Projection: Seguro wins, Ventura ahead of Cotrim in a statistical tie
Gouveia e Melo and Marques Mendes out of contention for the run-off
Polls prompt a 'public appeal'. Cotrim writes to Montenegro seeking support
In the wake of the Católica University poll for RTP, Antena 1 and Público, which indicates a presidential second round featuring André Ventura, João Cotrim Figueiredo or António José Seguro, the former IL leader sends a missive to Montenegro urging 'a vote for the PSD' and even quoting Sá Carneiro.
Cotrim asks Montenegro for support; Mendes and the admiral try to counter the polls
After a poll putting them outside the first round, Gouveia e Melo and Marques Mendes are trying on the campaign trail to show they can still make it into the first round. But more polls are yet to be published and there are two days left until the campaign ends.
Mendes in fifth place in the polls urges tactical voting and receives support from the Finance Minister: "Don't fall for siren songs"
Exactly at the moment the Antena 1 and RTP poll for the Catholic University of Portugal was released, Luís Marques Mendes took to the stage on Tuesday at the Ansião Cultural Centre in Leiria.
Tracking poll, day 9: a trend is beginning to form for the presidential election
Day nine of the Tracking Poll, reported by Pedro Benevides, shows a growing three-way dynamic in the Portuguese presidential race: António José Seguro, André Ventura and João Cotrim de Figueiredo are pulling ahead of Henrique Gouveia e Melo and Luís Marques Mendes. The pattern suggests the contest may crystallise into a three-way fight in the final campaign days, and — with the exception of Chega's leader — most main contenders have yet to secure full backing from their own bases.
Gouveia e Melo drops from statistical lead in polls
Daily polling covered by CNN Portugal and Observador shows Admiral Henrique Gouveia e Melo falling out of the early statistical tie for the lead, leaving three candidates contesting top positions and a different candidate (listed as Seguro) taking the polling advantage. Gouveia e Melo continues campaigning with message of institutional loyalty and has said he could form a good team with Luís Montenegro; market events and local interactions show shifting voter preferences. Residents following the election should watch for rapid movement in the polls as campaigning intensifies and for any signals of tactical endorsements.
- 2026 Presidential Candidate
- Party: Independent
- Retired Portuguese Navy officer
- Former coordinator of Portugal's COVID-19 Vaccination Taskforce
- Centrist pragmatist
Henrique Eduardo Passaláqua de Gouveia e Melo (born November 21, 1960, in Quelimane, Mozambique) is a retired Portuguese Navy Admiral running for president in the January 18, 2026 election as an independent candidate. He entered the Naval School in 1979 and built a 45-year military career, commanding submarines NRP Delfim and NRP Barracuda, the frigate NRP Vasco da Gama, and serving as Naval Commander (2017-2020) and Chief of Naval Staff (2021-2024). His national prominence surged in 2021 when he was appointed coordinator of Portugal's COVID-19 vaccination task force, which achieved the world's highest vaccination rates, earning him a spot on Jornal de Negócios' list of 50 Most Powerful People. He announced his presidential campaign on May 29, 2025, backed by the People's Monarchist Party.
Political Philosophy:
Gouveia e Melo positions himself as a "centrist pragmatist" focused on institutional balance, effective governance, and consensus-building. He advocates for demanding presidential oversight of democratic institutions without institutional opposition to government, emphasizing "institutional loyalty" paired with rigorous accountability. His platform prioritizes growth, social cohesion, and equitable development, rejecting ideology for pragmatic results-oriented leadership
Tracking poll, day 7: Seguro leads with Cotrim close behind; Marques Mendes increasingly distant from the top
The daily poll shows for the first time a four-way tie rather than a five-way tie: at the moment Mendes is not winning — nor is he now the one most expected to win, a place that has been taken by André Ventura. At the front, Cotrim continues to accelerate and is already filling Seguro's rear-view mirror. Technical details Over three days (8, 9 and 10 January 2026) Pitagórica collected daily, for TVI, CNN Portugal, TSF and JN, a minimum of 202 to 203 interviews (depending on quota adjustments) to ensure a daily sub-sample representative of the Portuguese electoral universe (non-probability). Sampling criteria were sex, three age bands and 20 geographic strata (Districts plus Madeira and the Azores). The results from the last three days of fieldwork produced a sample of 608 interviews which, for a confidence level of 95.5%, corresponds to a maximum margin of error of ±4.06%. Respondents were selected by random generation of mobile phone numbers while maintaining the market share proportion of the three main mobile operators. Where necessary, fixed-line numbers were randomly selected to support the sampling plan. Interviews were conducted by telephone (CATI — Computer Assisted Telephone Interviewing). The study aims to evaluate the opinions of Portuguese voters on issues related to the Presidential election, namely the main protagonists, moments of the campaign and the voting intentions for the various candidates. There were 1,225 contact attempts to obtain 608 completed interviews, giving a response rate of 49.63%. Undecided voters were distributed proportionally. The technical direction of the study is by Rita Marques da Silva. The full technical sheet and all results have been filed with ERC — Entidade Reguladora da Comunicação Social, which will make them available for online consultation.
Tracking poll, day 6: Seguro returns to first place, Ventura is overtaken and drops to third
Day 6 of the tracking poll reshuffles the leading pack: António Seguro returns to first place, André Ventura is overtaken and drops to third, while João Cotrim de Figueiredo continues to climb and for the first time joins the leading pair in contention for a second-round spot. The instant poll records a five-way technical tie among top contenders, reflecting continued volatility. The aggregated three‑day sample (7–9 Jan 2026) comprises 608 telephone interviews (CATI), drawn via randomly generated mobile numbers with landlines used when necessary; sampling quotas covered gender, three age brackets and 20 geographic strata. At a 95.5% confidence level the maximum margin of error is ±4.06%; 1,201 contact attempts produced a 50.62% response rate and undecided voters were distributed proportionally. Campaigns responded briskly: Mendes’s team dismisses the polls, insisting he will finish first and advance to the second round, while Rangel predicted a surprise from Mendes; columnist Miguel Esteves Cardoso noted an unpredictable, anti‑poll restlessness among voters. Technical direction was by Rita Marques da Silva and the full technical sheet has been deposited with ERC for consultation.
Cotrim de Figueiredo is ahead of Gouveia e Melo. A few months ago, no one would have believed this scenario
Margarida Davim analyses the data from CNN Portugal's tracking poll published on Friday, highlighting João Cotrim de Figueiredo's jump in voting intentions, placing him ahead of Henrique Gouveia e Melo.
Tracking poll, day 5: Ventura holds lead as Seguro and Cotrim draw closer
The former leader of Iniciativa Liberal is the candidate with the largest increase in voting intentions. Ventura remains ahead of Seguro, whose support has fallen again. Marques Mendes continues to regain ground.
These presidential elections are a 'box of chocolates'
In an interview with Observador, the heads of the main polling companies defend this instrument, lament that the numbers are being misread and warn: anything could happen on the 18th.
It's not normal to reach an election campaign and suddenly resort to personal attacks
Rui Moreira comments on the evolution of CNN Portugal's tracking poll, which follows Portuguese voting intentions for the presidential election. The commentator also analyses the latest debate in the run-up to these elections, which was marked by barbs between Marques Mendes and Gouveia e Melo.
"Favourable trend" gives Seguro a boost in bid to consolidate the left
Rising in the polls, Seguro sharpens his strategy and charges ahead in concentrating the left vote. Confidence in a second round (run-off) is beginning to take shape even among socialists who were less convinced by the candidate.
Five presidential candidates have one foot in the runoff
If one takes into account the 3.16% margin of error of the December poll by Pitagórica, carried out for Jornal de Notícias, TSF, TVI and CNN Portugal, we are faced with an unprecedented scenario in the presidential campaign: the five candidates with the highest voting intentions are separated by ...
