Latest news and stories about polling in daily life in Portugal for expats and residents.
Pitagórica poll shows Seguro falling to 59% and Ventura rising to 28%. The gap narrows to 4.7 percentage points with 10 days until the second round, already including the debate in the figures.
A daily poll finds most Portuguese want defeated presidential candidates to declare endorsements and that any such support should favour António José Seguro. The piece argues Montenegro was right not to declare backing, but if he did it should be for Seguro, while emphasising that centre-right support for Seguro is not a blank cheque and would bring concrete political responsibility. It also notes former PSD leader Rui Rio has publicly said he will vote for Seguro ahead of the 8 February second round against André Ventura.
Seguro continues to lead comfortably in voting intentions. Daily polling shows the firmness of voting intentions but also the reasons for mobilisation behind each candidate. See all the data here.
Gouveia e Melo and Marques Mendes out of contention for the run-off
In the wake of the Católica University poll for RTP, Antena 1 and Público, which indicates a presidential second round featuring André Ventura, João Cotrim Figueiredo or António José Seguro, the former IL leader sends a missive to Montenegro urging 'a vote for the PSD' and even quoting Sá Carneiro.
After a poll putting them outside the first round, Gouveia e Melo and Marques Mendes are trying on the campaign trail to show they can still make it into the first round. But more polls are yet to be published and there are two days left until the campaign ends.
Exactly at the moment the Antena 1 and RTP poll for the Catholic University of Portugal was released, Luís Marques Mendes took to the stage on Tuesday at the Ansião Cultural Centre in Leiria.
Day nine of the Tracking Poll, reported by Pedro Benevides, shows a growing three-way dynamic in the Portuguese presidential race: António José Seguro, André Ventura and João Cotrim de Figueiredo are pulling ahead of Henrique Gouveia e Melo and Luís Marques Mendes. The pattern suggests the contest may crystallise into a three-way fight in the final campaign days, and — with the exception of Chega's leader — most main contenders have yet to secure full backing from their own bases.
Daily poll data show that Admiral Gouveia e Melo has fallen out of the statistical tie for the lead, which is now contested by only three candidates. Seguro is now the favourite to win the elections. Manuel João Vieira, Jorge Pinto and António Filipe are tied.
The daily poll shows for the first time a four-way tie rather than a five-way tie: at the moment Mendes is not winning — nor is he now the one most expected to win, a place that has been taken by André Ventura. At the front, Cotrim continues to accelerate and is already filling Seguro's rear-view mirror. Technical details Over three days (8, 9 and 10 January 2026) Pitagórica collected daily, for TVI, CNN Portugal, TSF and JN, a minimum of 202 to 203 interviews (depending on quota adjustments) to ensure a daily sub-sample representative of the Portuguese electoral universe (non-probability). Sampling criteria were sex, three age bands and 20 geographic strata (Districts plus Madeira and the Azores). The results from the last three days of fieldwork produced a sample of 608 interviews which, for a confidence level of 95.5%, corresponds to a maximum margin of error of ±4.06%. Respondents were selected by random generation of mobile phone numbers while maintaining the market share proportion of the three main mobile operators. Where necessary, fixed-line numbers were randomly selected to support the sampling plan. Interviews were conducted by telephone (CATI — Computer Assisted Telephone Interviewing). The study aims to evaluate the opinions of Portuguese voters on issues related to the Presidential election, namely the main protagonists, moments of the campaign and the voting intentions for the various candidates. There were 1,225 contact attempts to obtain 608 completed interviews, giving a response rate of 49.63%. Undecided voters were distributed proportionally. The technical direction of the study is by Rita Marques da Silva. The full technical sheet and all results have been filed with ERC — Entidade Reguladora da Comunicação Social, which will make them available for online consultation.
Day 6 of the tracking poll reshuffles the leading pack: António Seguro returns to first place, André Ventura is overtaken and drops to third, while João Cotrim de Figueiredo continues to climb and for the first time joins the leading pair in contention for a second-round spot. The instant poll records a five-way technical tie among top contenders, reflecting continued volatility. The aggregated three‑day sample (7–9 Jan 2026) comprises 608 telephone interviews (CATI), drawn via randomly generated mobile numbers with landlines used when necessary; sampling quotas covered gender, three age brackets and 20 geographic strata. At a 95.5% confidence level the maximum margin of error is ±4.06%; 1,201 contact attempts produced a 50.62% response rate and undecided voters were distributed proportionally. Campaigns responded briskly: Mendes’s team dismisses the polls, insisting he will finish first and advance to the second round, while Rangel predicted a surprise from Mendes; columnist Miguel Esteves Cardoso noted an unpredictable, anti‑poll restlessness among voters. Technical direction was by Rita Marques da Silva and the full technical sheet has been deposited with ERC for consultation.
Margarida Davim analyses the data from CNN Portugal's tracking poll published on Friday, highlighting João Cotrim de Figueiredo's jump in voting intentions, placing him ahead of Henrique Gouveia e Melo.
The former leader of Iniciativa Liberal is the candidate with the largest increase in voting intentions. Ventura remains ahead of Seguro, whose support has fallen again. Marques Mendes continues to regain ground.
In an interview with Observador, the heads of the main polling companies defend this instrument, lament that the numbers are being misread and warn: anything could happen on the 18th.
Rui Moreira comments on the evolution of CNN Portugal's tracking poll, which follows Portuguese voting intentions for the presidential election. The commentator also analyses the latest debate in the run-up to these elections, which was marked by barbs between Marques Mendes and Gouveia e Melo.
Rising in the polls, Seguro sharpens his strategy and charges ahead in concentrating the left vote. Confidence in a second round (run-off) is beginning to take shape even among socialists who were less convinced by the candidate.
If one takes into account the 3.16% margin of error of the December poll by Pitagórica, carried out for Jornal de Notícias, TSF, TVI and CNN Portugal, we are faced with an unprecedented scenario in the presidential campaign: the five candidates with the highest voting intentions are separated by ...
