The daily poll shows for the first time a four-way tie rather than a five-way tie: at the moment Mendes is not winning — nor is he now the one most expected to win, a place that has been taken by André Ventura. At the front, Cotrim continues to accelerate and is already filling Seguro's rear-view mirror.

Technical details

Over three days (8, 9 and 10 January 2026) Pitagórica collected daily, for TVI, CNN Portugal, TSF and JN, a minimum of 202 to 203 interviews (depending on quota adjustments) to ensure a daily sub-sample representative of the Portuguese electoral universe (non-probability). Sampling criteria were sex, three age bands and 20 geographic strata (Districts plus Madeira and the Azores). The results from the last three days of fieldwork produced a sample of 608 interviews which, for a confidence level of 95.5%, corresponds to a maximum margin of error of ±4.06%.

Respondents were selected by random generation of mobile phone numbers while maintaining the market share proportion of the three main mobile operators. Where necessary, fixed-line numbers were randomly selected to support the sampling plan. Interviews were conducted by telephone (CATI — Computer Assisted Telephone Interviewing).

The study aims to evaluate the opinions of Portuguese voters on issues related to the Presidential election, namely the main protagonists, moments of the campaign and the voting intentions for the various candidates. There were 1,225 contact attempts to obtain 608 completed interviews, giving a response rate of 49.63%. Undecided voters were distributed proportionally. The technical direction of the study is by Rita Marques da Silva. The full technical sheet and all results have been filed with ERC — Entidade Reguladora da Comunicação Social, which will make them available for online consultation.