Latest news and stories about voter intention in Portugal for expats and residents.
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A daily poll, with an increased number of interviews, shows a further decline for Marques Mendes and Gouveia e Melo. Cotrim stands out among former AD voters on the day undecided voters fall again.

Day 6 of the tracking poll reshuffles the leading pack: António Seguro returns to first place, André Ventura is overtaken and drops to third, while João Cotrim de Figueiredo continues to climb and for the first time joins the leading pair in contention for a second-round spot. The instant poll records a five-way technical tie among top contenders, reflecting continued volatility. The aggregated three‑day sample (7–9 Jan 2026) comprises 608 telephone interviews (CATI), drawn via randomly generated mobile numbers with landlines used when necessary; sampling quotas covered gender, three age brackets and 20 geographic strata. At a 95.5% confidence level the maximum margin of error is ±4.06%; 1,201 contact attempts produced a 50.62% response rate and undecided voters were distributed proportionally. Campaigns responded briskly: Mendes’s team dismisses the polls, insisting he will finish first and advance to the second round, while Rangel predicted a surprise from Mendes; columnist Miguel Esteves Cardoso noted an unpredictable, anti‑poll restlessness among voters. Technical direction was by Rita Marques da Silva and the full technical sheet has been deposited with ERC for consultation.
