The March 2026 CIP/ISEG Economic Situation Barometer predicts that the negative impact of the Persian Gulf conflict on the Portuguese economy will be felt in the first-quarter figures, potentially intensifying thereafter. Rising oil and natural gas prices are expected to reverse the downward inflation trend seen in late 2025, affecting energy-intensive sectors. Rafael Alves Rocha, Director-General of the CIP, notes that this new shock, combined with the aftermath of recent severe storms, threatens private consumption and export performance. The report highlights the urgency of direct support for companies facing rising energy costs and warns that potential interest rate hikes by the European Central Bank could further penalise households and businesses.
CIP/ISEG barometer anticipates impact of Gulf conflict as early as the first quarter
Tuesday, 31 March 2026RSS
Context & Explainers
Inflation measures how much general prices rise over time, usually reported year‑on‑year to compare a month with the same month a year earlier. Portugal’s National Institute of Statistics (INE) estimated January inflation at 1.9% year‑on‑year, down 0.3 percentage points from December, which affects rents, wages and everyday purchasing power for residents.
