Público and CNN Portugal report analysts expect abstention to fall in this presidential election, citing two features of the race that typically increase participation — including stronger mobilisation among younger voters. The forecast suggests turnout could alter campaign calculations and the likelihood of a second round. Political observers and campaign teams should watch turnout patterns, particularly among young and first-time voters.
Analysts expect abstention to fall this year
Sunday, 18 January 2026AI summary
Context & Explainers
Abstention is when eligible voters choose not to vote; it is usually reported as the percentage of registered voters who do not cast a ballot. A falling abstention rate can change electoral outcomes and boost the perceived legitimacy of the result, so a predicted drop — including among younger voters — matters for how parties and candidates plan campaigning and turnout efforts.
Carlos Jalali is the coordinator of the Study Centre at the Francisco Manuel dos Santos Foundation (Fundação Francisco Manuel dos Santos), a Portuguese research organisation. He studies electoral behaviour and has commented on expectations for lower abstention in the current presidential vote.
