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Scenarios mapped for possible second‑round outcomes

Friday, 16 January 2026AI summary
Scenarios mapped for possible second‑round outcomes

Analysts presented multiple plausible second‑round (segunda volta) scenarios that would shape alliances and the tone of the presidency after 18 January, with different matchups signalling varied policy directions and voter priorities. Coverage notes that each scenario would prompt distinct endorsement dynamics and tactical voting decisions in the days after the first round. Those tracking the election outcome should watch candidate statements and party endorsements closely for signals about post‑vote alignments.

Context & Explainers

The second round (segunda volta) is a runoff held if no candidate obtains more than 50% of votes in the first round; the top two candidates then compete head‑to‑head. For expats following elections, the second round is usually decisive because broader coalitions form and turnout and endorsements can change the outcome.

Tactical voting means choosing a less-preferred candidate to achieve a strategic outcome—for example concentrating support to ensure a preferred candidate reaches the second round (segunda volta) or to block a rival. Party leaders urge it when they want to avoid splitting votes among similar candidates and increase the chance of a favourable runoff result.

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