DN/Aximage poll puts Seguro far ahead in run‑off

A DN/Aximage poll published across outlets shows António José Seguro with roughly a 20‑point lead over André Ventura in a hypothetical second round, and commentators say that lead could shape tactical voting and campaign messaging ahead of the vote. Seguro — the candidate backed by the Socialist Party (Partido Socialista or PS) — has framed himself as the moderate alternative and has argued there is no need to revise the Constitution. Voters and campaign observers should watch turnout patterns and late endorsements, which could still influence close first‑round dynamics.

Context & Explainers

2026 Presidential Candidate (running as an independent)
Party: Former leader of Socialist Party (PS) Partido Socialista
Center left

Background:

António José Martins Seguro (born March 11, 1962, in Penamacor) is a lawyer, political scientist, and Socialist Party politician running for president in Portugal's January 18, 2026 election. He led Socialist Youth (1990-1994), served as MEP (1999-2001), was Minister Adjunct to PM António Guterres (2001-2002), and led the PS parliamentary group (2004-2005). Elected PS Secretary-General in 2011 with 68%, he led the opposition during Portugal's bailout era. In 2014, António Costa defeated him in party primaries by a landslide, prompting Seguro's resignation and decade-long retreat from politics. He returned in 2025, launching the movement UPortugal and announcing his presidential candidacy in June. He received official PS backing in October 2025. Political Philosophy:

Seguro positions himself as representing a "modern and moderate" left, offering a progressive alternative to conservative candidates. He advocates for "financial responsibility but critical of austerity," attempting to reposition the PS at center-left. His campaign emphasizes institutional trust, efficient governance, and hope for a better future.

The Socialist Party (Partido Socialista or PS) is Portugal's main centre‑left, social‑democratic party that has been one of the country’s largest parties and has led national governments since 2015 under António Costa. Its decisions shape taxation, housing, health and immigration policies that directly affect residents and expats living in Portugal.

Tactical voting means choosing a less-preferred candidate to achieve a strategic outcome—for example concentrating support to ensure a preferred candidate reaches the second round (segunda volta) or to block a rival. Party leaders urge it when they want to avoid splitting votes among similar candidates and increase the chance of a favourable runoff result.

The second round (segunda volta) is a runoff held if no candidate obtains more than 50% of votes in the first round; the top two candidates then compete head‑to‑head. For expats following elections, the second round is usually decisive because broader coalitions form and turnout and endorsements can change the outcome.

Socialist Party (PS)

Leader: José Luís Carneiro (since June 2025)
Ideology: Center-left, Social democracy, pro-Europeanism

Portugal's other traditional major party suffered a historic collapse in the 2025 election, dropping from 78 to 58 seats and falling to third place for the first time in democratic history. The party was led by Pedro Nuno Santos from January 2024 until his resignation following the May 2025 defeat. José Luís Carneiro, a 53-year-old former Minister of Internal Administration known for his moderate positioning within the party, was elected unopposed as the new Secretary-General with 95% of votes in June 2025. The Socialist Party governed Portugal from 2015 to 2024, including an absolute majority from 2022 to 2024 under António Costa, who resigned in November 2023 amid a corruption investigation. The PS previously led the innovative "Geringonça" (contraption) coalition government from 2015-2019, a minority government supported by the Left Bloc and Portuguese Communist Party that reversed austerity measures and presided over economic recovery.