Emigrant voters may carry outsized influence this election

Experts told Lusa and national outlets that emigrant voting could have a larger impact than in previous presidential contests, as turnout patterns and narrow margins make overseas ballots more decisive. Historically lower in influence, emigrant turnout this time could tip close races or affect which candidates progress to a second round. Portuguese citizens abroad should confirm registration and polling or postal-vote arrangements with their consulate or local authorities well before Sunday.

Context & Explainers

2026 Presidential Candidate (running as an independent)
Party: Former leader of Socialist Party (PS) Partido Socialista
Center left

Background:

António José Martins Seguro (born March 11, 1962, in Penamacor) is a lawyer, political scientist, and Socialist Party politician running for president in Portugal's January 18, 2026 election. He led Socialist Youth (1990-1994), served as MEP (1999-2001), was Minister Adjunct to PM António Guterres (2001-2002), and led the PS parliamentary group (2004-2005). Elected PS Secretary-General in 2011 with 68%, he led the opposition during Portugal's bailout era. In 2014, António Costa defeated him in party primaries by a landslide, prompting Seguro's resignation and decade-long retreat from politics. He returned in 2025, launching the movement UPortugal and announcing his presidential candidacy in June. He received official PS backing in October 2025. Political Philosophy:

Seguro positions himself as representing a "modern and moderate" left, offering a progressive alternative to conservative candidates. He advocates for "financial responsibility but critical of austerity," attempting to reposition the PS at center-left. His campaign emphasizes institutional trust, efficient governance, and hope for a better future.

Emigrant voting lets Portuguese citizens living abroad cast ballots in national elections, usually by mail or at consulates. With several hundred thousand registered overseas voters, their turnout and geographic distribution can be decisive in close presidential contests, so candidates often campaign to win votes in key emigrant communities.

The second round (segunda volta) is a runoff held if no candidate obtains more than 50% of votes in the first round; the top two candidates then compete head‑to‑head. For expats following elections, the second round is usually decisive because broader coalitions form and turnout and endorsements can change the outcome.