Polling reshuffle: Seguro returns to lead

A daily tracking poll aggregated over 7–9 January shows 'Seguro' returning to first place while Cotrim de Figueiredo moves into a joint lead position and André Ventura slips to third; pollsters describe a technical five‑way tie. The sample (about 600 aggregated interviews) used quotas by gender, age and geography, and the results increase the likelihood of a second round. Expats following the election should watch shifting dynamics that could affect the presidential runoff and turnout.

Context & Explainers

2026 Presidential Candidate
Party: Liberal Initiative (IL) Iniciativa Liberal
Businessman from Lisbon
Economic Liberalism, reduced state intervention, pro-Europe

João Fernando Cotrim de Figueiredo (born June 24, 1961, in Lisbon) is a businessman and liberal politician running for Portugal's presidency in the January 18, 2026 election. He grew up in Lisbon, studied Economics at the London School of Economics and earned an MBA from NOVA University Lisbon. He held executive positions at Compal, Nutricafés, Privado Holding, and TVI, and served as president of Turismo de Portugal (2013-2016), overseeing tourism industry growth during his tenure. He was elected as the Liberal Initiative's first parliamentary deputy in October 2019, led the party (2019-2023) while it grew from 1 to 8 seats with 5% of votes in 2022, and was elected European Parliament member in 2024. He announced his presidential candidacy in August 2025, backed by the Liberal Initiative.

Political Philosophy:

Cotrim de Figueiredo champions liberal economics—tax reduction, labour market liberalization, and welfare reform—alongside cultural and secular liberalism. His campaign emphasizes "Culture, Knowledge and Growth," positioning himself as representing younger voters alienated by traditional candidates, and explicitly states he expects a "second-round" runoff result. He advocates for a future-prepared Portugal distinct from current political offerings.

The second round (segunda volta) is a runoff held if no candidate obtains more than 50% of votes in the first round; the top two candidates then compete head‑to‑head. For expats following elections, the second round is usually decisive because broader coalitions form and turnout and endorsements can change the outcome.