A Católica University poll conducted for RTP, Antena 1 and Público projects a comfortable run-off victory for António José Seguro, estimating he would take about 70% of the vote to André Ventura’s 30%. The survey suggests Seguro consolidates most first-round votes from Mendes, Cotrim and Gouveia e Melo. The campaign has seen tensions over a declined radio debate — Ventura accused Seguro of fearing scrutiny, a charge Seguro dismissed — and controversy over Seguro’s pledge not to promulgate the labour package or regionalisation. An accompanying editorial framed support for Seguro as backing a moderate alternative rather than an ideological socialist.