Latest news and stories about election poll in Portugal for expats and residents.
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The analysis and figures from the latest poll before the presidential elections will be revealed in Soundbite, with Ana Sá Lopes, Helena Pereira, and Ruben Martins.
If the elections were held today, António José Seguro would win with 53.6% of the vote, ahead of the 27.9% who intend to vote for André Ventura. These figures are before the allocation of undecided voters, whose level rose to 8.6%. But another figure rose — and by a lot: the intention to cast a blank or spoiled ballot, which increases to an unprecedented 9.9%.
Since the debate with Ventura, Seguro has been in decline: he has lost about eight percentage points since then. Ventura is stable, but could benefit from abstention and from blank and null votes, the intention level for which has doubled since the debate and is approaching an unprecedented double-digit figure. Six days remain until the elections.
Daily poll shows that almost half of respondents agree or tend to agree with Montenegro's neutrality regarding whom to support in this second round.
This is the first poll conducted entirely after the televised debate between Seguro and Ventura. The figures bring bitter news for both presidential candidates. Technical details Over three days (28, 29 and 30 January 2026) Pitagórica collected a minimum of 202 to 203 interviews per day (depending on quota adjustments) for TVI, CNN Portugal, TSF and JN to ensure a daily sub-sample representative of the Portuguese electoral universe (non-probability). The sampling criteria were gender, three age groups and 20 geographic strata (districts plus Madeira and the Azores). The aggregation of the last three days of fieldwork resulted in a sample of 608 interviews which, for a confidence level of 95.5%, corresponds to a maximum margin of error of ±4.06%. Respondents were selected through random generation of mobile phone numbers, maintaining the proportion of the three main mobile operators. When necessary, landline numbers were randomly selected to support the sampling plan. Interviews were conducted by telephone using CATI (Computer Assisted Telephone Interviewing). The study aims to assess Portuguese voters' opinions on issues related to the Presidential elections, namely the main protagonists, campaign moments and the voting intentions for the various candidates. There were 1,261 contact attempts to achieve 608 completed interviews, giving a response rate of 47.87%. The allocation of undecided voters is done proportionally. The technical direction of the study is the responsibility of Rita Marques da Silva. The full technical sheet and all results have been filed with the ERC — the Regulatory Authority for the Media — which will make them available online for consultation.
António José Seguro remains ahead of André Ventura in the polls, but has lost four percentage points compared with previous polls. There are still 7.5% undecided.
Daily tracking poll already shows much of the impact of the televised debate between the two presidential candidates.
The ICS/ISCTE poll for Expresso and SIC anticipates a comfortable victory for António José Seguro, who even outpolls André Ventura among the youngest voters. On Expresso da Manhã, Paulo Baldaia speaks with Expresso's deputy editor David Dinis.
António José Seguro now receives 59%, falling below 60% for the first time, while André Ventura rises to 28%, in a voting-intention scenario without reallocating undecided respondents, who still account for 7.2% of those surveyed. Added to that are 5.8% of voters who intend to cast a blank or null vote, a clear increase compared with the first two days.
PSD sympathisers largely favour Seguro, but Ventura is expected to double his votes among that group compared with the first round.
Seguro was fourth in ratings of qualities in the first round; now he pulls well ahead when compared with Ventura.
The latest poll conducted by ICS-ISCTE and GfK for Expresso and SIC indicates that António José Seguro would receive nearly double the voting intentions in the second round of the presidential election compared with André Ventura. According to Expresso, Seguro has 51% of the vote and Ventura 27%. Meanwhile, the number of undecided voters is around 8%...
In a second round, Seguro has double Ventura's share of voting intentions and even commands majority support among men, young people and Portuguese with lower levels of education — groups typically more aligned with Chega's leader. Only Cotrim's voters are hesitant.
Seguro remains ahead in voting intentions, although there was a narrowing of 4.7 percentage points. This is the first day that the main debate between the two candidates in the run-off is taken into account.
Seguro continues to lead by a clear margin in voting intentions. The daily poll shows the stability of those intentions but also the reasons for mobilisation behind each of the candidates.
The former PS leader leads in all age groups, among both genders and across all social classes. He is also by far the favourite among the electorates of Gouveia e Melo, Cotrim and Marques Mendes.
Minister warns there is a real risk of flooding north of the Mondego and in the Tagus basin “throughout this week”. Also, a new tracking poll puts Seguro ahead with 60.9% and Ventura behind with 26.5%.
According to João Marcelino's analysis, the first poll of the presidential run-off points to a clear lead for António José Seguro, with an advantage across all demographic and social segments. The CNN Portugal commentator says, however, that it will affect the size of André Ventura's vote, whose starting point 'is probably not as good as he would hope.'
An 8pm survey conducted by Católica shows Seguro with a substantial advantage over Ventura in voting intentions.
In this soundbite, see the figures and hear the analysis of the PÚBLICO/RTP/Antena 1 poll.
The electorate's 'preference' for António José Seguro is 'largely predominant', with 87% of his voters saying there is no likelihood they will change their minds before the second round.
A Cesop poll shows that 25–30% of the potential votes of Gouveia e Melo and Marques Mendes went to Seguro and Ventura. In the last week Cotrim lost 20% of the voters who intended to vote for him.
A Católica poll shows António José Seguro winning with 70% and managing to pick up more than half of the votes that Cotrim Figueiredo, Gouveia e Melo and Marques Mendes received in the first round.
A Católica University poll conducted for RTP, Antena 1 and Público projects a comfortable run-off victory for António José Seguro, estimating he would take about 70% of the vote to André Ventura’s 30%. The survey suggests Seguro consolidates most first-round votes from Mendes, Cotrim and Gouveia e Melo. The campaign has seen tensions over a declined radio debate — Ventura accused Seguro of fearing scrutiny, a charge Seguro dismissed — and controversy over Seguro’s pledge not to promulgate the labour package or regionalisation. An accompanying editorial framed support for Seguro as backing a moderate alternative rather than an ideological socialist.