Mendes received as many votes from the AD as Cotrim — and records the worst presidential result for a Government‑backed candidate
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The AD electorate split into four in this presidential contest. Ventura was the most successful at retaining votes from the legislative elections. Gouveia e Melo ended up with more votes from the AD than from the PS. Data from the Expresso/SIC poll.
'There is a big loser of the night and it is Luís Montenegro': Rita Matias reacts to initial election results
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Chega MP says André Ventura 'is the leader of the right' in response to the results of an Intercampus poll conducted for CM/CMTV.
Catholic University projection puts Seguro and either Ventura or Cotrim into the presidential run-off
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A poll by the Catholic University for RTP indicates that António José Seguro would advance to the second round of the presidential election, together with either André Ventura or João Cotrim de Figueiredo.
Tracking poll, day 11: penultimate day of the daily poll — this is how things stand
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The penultimate tracking poll before Sunday’s presidential election indicates that the top three candidates, in a technical tie for the lead, continue to stand out from the other contenders. António José Seguro is the fastest growing, now at 24.2% of voting intentions (up 1.6 percentage points); André Ventura consolidates second place with a rise to 22.9% (up 0.9 percentage points); and João Cotrim de Figueiredo remains in third, at 21.1%, up 0.8 percentage points from the last measurement.
Marques Mendes 'absolutely convinced' he will reach the second round
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A poll by the Catholic University for RTP places the PSD-backed candidate in fifth place, well outside the margin of error that would allow him to advance to the second round.
Ventura and Seguro in a technical tie in the last major poll before the presidential election
Cotrim de Figueiredo now occupies third place. Marques Mendes and Gouveia e Melo have fallen and are tied for fourth.
Ventura and Seguro lead Católica poll
Cotrim is in third. Marques Mendes and the admiral are already outside the margin of error and are therefore out of contention for the second round.
Presidential poll: support for Seguro buoyant, Gouveia and Mendes declining
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André Ventura, António José Seguro and João Cotrim de Figueiredo are the three candidates most likely to progress to the second round of the presidential election.
New poll puts Ventura and Seguro into the second round. Cotrim leaves the admiral and Mendes behind
If the presidential election were held today, André Ventura and António José Seguro would advance to a second round. A major survey by the Catholic University for RTP, Público and Antena1, released this Tuesday, shows the candidate backed by Chega in first place, with 24% of voting intentions, followed very closely by the Socialist candidate, who polls ...
Poll suggests presidential runoff between Ventura and either Seguro or Cotrim
André Ventura is in first place in voting intentions in the Catholic University poll for RTP, Antena 1 and Público, just one percentage point ahead of António José Seguro. Henrique Gouveia e Melo and Luís Marques Mendes fall to fourth and fifth place, respectively.
Poll: Marques Mendes excluded from four-way tie
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This is the first poll to place Luís Marques Mendes outside the margin of error that encompasses the other four candidates with the highest percentage of voting intentions.
Tracking poll, day 6: Seguro again in front, Cotrim rises to second, Ventura on the podium
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The daily poll again reshuffles the top three in a five-way technical tie. Cotrim de Figueiredo continues to climb and, for the first time, joins the pair leading the race to a second round.
Seguro returns to the lead, Cotrim moves into second
It is the first time that the MEP and candidate backed by the Liberal Initiative has reached the hypothetical second round, with André Ventura falling from first to third.
Ventura leads poll as Cotrim threatens to overtake Seguro
Ventura remains at 20.5%, but Seguro falls in voting intentions. Cotrim thanks supporters and closes the gap as he distances himself from Henrique Gouveia e Melo, who sees Marques Mendes growing ever closer.
8pm: Ventura leads in daily presidential poll
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The candidate backed by Chega reaches 20.5% of voting intentions. Pedro Santana Lopes also says the Presidency would be well placed in the hands of António José Seguro.
As I have always said — some people called me names and still haven't apologised — Cotrim de Figueiredo is in the race and could make it to the second round
Rui Calafate analyses the data from CNN Portugal's tracking poll released this Friday, highlighting the surge in voting intentions for Cotrim Figueiredo.
Tracking poll, day 5: Ventura maintains lead, Cotrim closes in on Seguro
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Daily poll data also show that Gouveia e Melo has fallen again and that Marques Mendes registered a slight rise and is drawing closer to the admiral. In addition, the gap between fifth place and first place has increased. Technical details: Over three days (4, 5 and 6 January 2026) a minimum of 202 to 203 interviews were collected daily by Pitagórica for TVI, CNN Portugal, TSF and JN (depending on adjustments to the sample quotas) to ensure a daily subsample representative of the Portuguese electoral universe (non-probabilistic). The sampling criteria were gender, three age groups and 20 geographic strata (districts, Madeira and the Azores). The compilation of the last three days of fieldwork produced a sample of 608 interviews which, for a confidence level of 95.5%, corresponds to a maximum margin of error of ±4.06%. Interviewees were selected by randomly generating mobile phone numbers, maintaining the proportion of the three main mobile operators. Where necessary, landline numbers were randomly selected to support the sampling plan. Interviews were collected by telephone (CATI – Computer Assisted Telephone Interviewing). The study aims to assess Portuguese voters' opinions on issues related to the presidential elections, namely the main protagonists, moments of the campaign, as well as voting intention for the various candidates. A total of 1,244 contact attempts were made to obtain 608 completed interviews, giving a response rate of 48.87%. The distribution of undecided voters is done proportionally. The technical direction of the study is the responsibility of Rita Marques da Silva. The full technical sheet, as well as all the results, have been deposited with the ERC – Entidade Reguladora da Comunicação Social, which will make them available for online consultation.
Cotrim de Figueiredo benefited from the deterioration of Marques Mendes's image and remains in a position that could take him to a second round
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CNN Portugal commentator Pedro Tadeu comments on the results of the latest TVI/CNN Portugal poll and highlights Marques Mendes's “notable recovery” in response to the accusations made by Gouveia e Melo.
Cotrim de Figueiredo has a list of supporters he calls 'champions in various fields'. One of them is Nuno Afonso, who was a founder of Chega with André Ventura: Filipe Santos Costa
Filipe Santos Costa, a commentator for CNN Portugal, analyses the latest CNN Portugal tracking poll and highlights one point: “Perhaps it is time to look at Cotrim de Figueiredo more closely. As no one imagined him to be so competitive, he was less scrutinised.” He refers to a list of supporters that is on Cotrim de Figueiredo's campaign website, which includes “a founder of Chega, who was André Ventura's right‑hand man.” Filipe Santos Costa says it is important to understand which right Cotrim de Figueiredo represents.
3h. Sondagem. Seguro mantém liderança na corrida a Belém
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The Pitagórica poll for TVI, CNN, JN and TSF also puts, for the first time, Cotrim de Figueiredo ahead of Gouveia e Melo. Also, Donald Trump announces a call with the Colombian leader.
'If someone is going to withdraw, let it be now: on Sunday there is advance voting' - Rui Calafate makes an appeal as he reviews the presidential campaign (and the CNN tracking poll)
CNN Portugal commentator Rui Calafate assesses the performance of the candidates for the Presidency after the fourth day of campaigning. He also examines CNN Portugal's tracking poll.
Poll: Seguro remains leader and Cotrim rises to the podium
In the poll released in the aftermath of the major debate involving all the candidates, Seguro strengthens his lead in the race to Belém, while the Admiral slips and draws closer to Marques Mendes.
Tracking poll, day 2: Seguro leads, Ventura rises and Cotrim closes in on Gouveia e Melo
On the second day of Pitagórica’s tracking poll for CNN Portugal, TVI, JN and TSF, António José Seguro slightly increases his lead. Meanwhile, Gouveia e Melo is overtaken by André Ventura and Cotrim de Figueiredo draws closer to the two. The tracking poll also confirms the decline of Luís Marques Mendes.
Tracking poll, day 2: Seguro leads, Ventura rises and Cotrim catches up with Gouveia e Melo (but voters think Mendes will win)
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The large five-way tie remains, but António José Seguro pulls ahead, while Gouveia e Melo shows volatility and Cotrim continues to gain ground. Different from voting intention is the perception of who will win: on that question the poll 'flips', showing that the Portuguese believe the second round will be between Mendes and Ventura. The campaign continues.
