In Lisbon, Vitória lives with her boyfriend and her daughter in a three-bedroom flat shared with another family — a mother who has two daughters. In Porto, Gabriela sleeps in the same room as her two 16-year-old daughters. There are increasing cases of families sharing homes.

Economist João Rodrigues de Santos warns that a public guarantee scheme is encouraging young people to take on mortgages with high repayments and minimal financial headroom, just as Portugal faces major international uncertainty. With wages among the third‑worst in the EU, the end of pandemic-era supports and the prospect of rising interest rates, many borrowers — including first-time buyers and expats — are exposed to rapid financial distress. The combination of weak income growth, a heated property market and policy incentives to lend underestimates downside risks; the commentator argues for tighter underwriting, better safety nets and targeted borrower support to reduce systemic vulnerability.

Update: The economist reiterated in a CNN Portugal piece that the public guarantee is actively pushing young buyers into mortgages with high repayments and little buffer amid heightened international uncertainty. He highlighted that the withdrawal of pandemic-era supports and the prospect of rising interest rates mean many borrowers — notably first-time buyers and expatriates — could rapidly fall into financial distress, strengthening his call for stricter underwriting standards and targeted safety nets to contain systemic risk.

Housing prices have risen to levels that many describe as obscene, driven by a mix of constrained local supply, strong demand, low borrowing costs and investor activity. The resulting price inflation has undermined affordability, altered living choices and intensified regional disparities in property markets. Policy responses and planning changes will be central to cool inflation and expand accommodation options in affected areas.

Nuno Leal, co‑CEO of Doutor Finanças, says the tax measures in the government’s housing plan — due to be debated in Parliament on Friday — should help increase supply in the market. He concedes the package tends to favour property owners and landlords but considers it “relatively balanced”, noting the measures are centred on those who hold property while aiming to ease supply constraints. The assessment focuses on likely effects on rental supply and owner incentives rather than specific legislative detail.

Economist Vera Gouveia Barros argues that the most effective element of the Construir Portugal programme is tax relief on rentals, citing an ‘almost mechanical effect’ from a proposed 10% autonomous IRS rate for rents up to €2,300. She suggests this tax cut will directly influence rent levels and landlord behaviour, with likely quick transmission into the market. However, the package omits a dedicated room‑rental option — a gap that could limit lower‑cost housing supply and options for students, workers and expats. Barros’ analysis implies policymakers should pair fiscal incentives with targeted measures for small‑unit and shared accommodation and monitor market adjustments to avoid unintended rent inflation or supply imbalances.

The Government's housing plan, due for debate and a vote on Friday, is expected to pass after Chega signals it will abstain. Although Chega's final voting decision is not yet locked in, the party led by André Ventura intends to abstain so it can later table and negotiate amendments during the committee stage. The abstention effectively allows the bill to advance despite the Government lacking a clear majority, with potential implications for property costs, local housing policy and market regulation as the measure moves to detailed scrutiny.

During a heated parliamentary debate, Prime Minister Luís Montenegro warned that moderation in residential property prices — for both buying and renting — is inevitable after what he described as recent 'risky measures.' He framed the policy changes as drivers of a market correction, signalling likely cooling pressures on affordability and activity in Portugal’s housing market and prompting renewed scrutiny of government housing and economic policy.

Humberto Correia frames his presidential bid around his personal experience of poverty, presenting himself as a candidate who understands the everyday suffering of the Portuguese. He singles out the housing sector as a ‚disaster‘ and signals that addressing property, cost-of-living and related social stresses will be central to his campaign, positioning his lived experience as the basis for policy credibility.

A wave of policy and market changes due to take effect in 2026 will raise the cost of housing for Portuguese households and alter incentives across the sector. Measures affecting rents, mortgage lending rules and tax treatment of construction and property are set to impact owners, tenants and prospective buyers, with knock-on effects for affordability, market dynamics and the state budget. The package will reframe public incentives and regulatory risk for investors and households alike, requiring households and professionals to reassess financing, renting and development decisions.