Latest news and stories about interest rates in europe in Portugal for expats and residents.
The European Central Bank is anticipated to maintain interest rates at 2% this Thursday as policymakers monitor the impact of energy costs on broader inflation before taking further action.
The conflict in Iran has triggered market expectations of Eurozone interest rate hikes to combat inflation, leading to the largest Euribor increase in three years and higher home loan costs for April.
Central banks, including the Fed and the ECB, are maintaining current interest rates as they navigate the delicate balance of avoiding stagflation and preventing costly monetary policy errors.
The council has already debated whether interest rates should be increased to counter the risk of inflation. Lagarde dismisses 'stagflation' but finds herself at a crossroads that bears similarities to 2022, and even more so to 2011.
The European Central Bank (ECB) has kept its benchmark interest rates unchanged. The governors discussed a hike, but for now, they have decided to postpone the decision. Markets are now anticipating an interest rate increase in June.
The European Central Bank maintains interest rates, but President Christine Lagarde signals a potential shift in policy by June.
The president of the European Central Bank began by answering the question about what the institution might decide regarding interest rates as the war in the Middle East drags on in a typically diplomatic way: “I believe we all wish for the war to end quickly”. Christine Lagarde did not shy away from the question, but ended up satisfying...
The European Central Bank has decided to maintain current interest rates.
ECB officials have once again left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 2%, acknowledging that risks regarding an economic slowdown and rising inflation are intensifying.
The longer the war continues, the more likely rate hikes will become, central bank warns
The European Central Bank (ECB) has maintained its key interest rates, with the deposit facility rate remaining at 2%. However, the Frankfurt-based institution signaled that a rate hike is likely in June due to intensifying inflation risks driven by the conflict in the Middle East, which has disrupted energy and commodity supplies. While core inflation has shown signs of slowing, headline inflation in the Eurozone has risen to 3%, prompting the ECB to adopt a data-dependent approach for future policy decisions.
The Governing Council of the European Central Bank has decided to keep the three key ECB interest rates unchanged, according to a statement published on the portal.
The European Central Bank is expected to keep key interest rates unchanged this Thursday, April 30, while evaluating whether the recent rise in inflation linked to the war in the Middle East will be persistent. President Christine Lagarde noted that the unpredictable nature of the conflict makes it difficult to forecast the duration of the economic shock. Consequently, the ECB is prioritizing a cautious, data-dependent approach, with markets now anticipating a potential move in June rather than April. Meanwhile, weak PMI data indicating a contraction in eurozone activity further complicates the decision, as the bank balances inflation risks against a fragile economic outlook.
The main key interest rate has been at 2% since June 2025.
The cost of the euro will not rise, at least for now. With the uncertainty of the conflict in the Middle East dragging on, the European Central Bank (ECB) will take advantage of the fact that it is well-positioned and equipped (as Christine Lagarde said in March) to keep interest rates unchanged this Thursday and evaluate, with more data, ...
The European Central Bank is likely to maintain key interest rates this Thursday, opting for caution while assessing the long-term impact of inflation linked to the conflict in the Middle East. President Christine Lagarde has emphasised the need for more data before adjusting monetary policy, as the uncertainty surrounding the conflict makes it difficult to predict its economic effects. While energy prices have risen due to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, markets currently view this as a temporary shock. Consequently, the ECB is expected to keep the deposit rate at 2%, with analysts suggesting that any potential rate hikes may be deferred until June.
After a 2025 marked by the announcement of tariffs, trade tensions and other conflicts, this year promised to be calmer, but the conflict in the Middle East has brought a renewed dose of uncertainty and reignited inflationary fears, leading markets to anticipate up to four interest rate hikes by the ECB. An estimate that was “too aggressive”, says...
European Central Bank (ECB) Vice-President Luis de Guindos argued on Tuesday, the 21st, that the institution must exercise caution regarding monetary policy and interest rates, despite pressures from conflicts in Ukraine and Iran. Speaking at a breakfast event organised by the Spanish newspaper La Razón, De Guindos stated that monetary policy must remain prudent and attentive to the duration and implications of these conflicts. He acknowledged that monetary policy cannot stop the initial impact of inflation, noting that energy price hikes are beyond the control of central banks. De Guindos emphasised that monetary policy is not omnipotent, as government measures and conflict developments also play a role. He warned against downplaying the war in Ukraine, describing it as an existential threat to Europe, while noting that attention is shifting toward the Middle East. He also highlighted the need for increased defence investment as the US commitment to European security wavers, and lamented the lack of a banking union for goods and services, alongside political divisions within the European Parliament.
The escalation of energy prices, caused by the conflict in the Middle East, is already being reflected in the rise of the inflation rate, which accelerated to 2.5% in the Eurozone in March, and should lead the European Central Bank (ECB) to raise interest rates at the June meeting if the war lasts through this month, anticipates...
This week was marked by significant gains in global stock markets as investors focused on the Middle East conflict. A temporary two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran was announced on Tuesday night, signalling an attempt to de-escalate tensions. Markets reacted positively, with major indices like the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and DAX seeing significant gains on Wednesday. The agreement boosted risk appetite, supported by falling energy prices, though doubts quickly emerged following Israeli strikes on Hezbollah targets in Lebanon. Despite this uncertainty, investors remain encouraged by the US administration's intent to reduce conflict exposure. Meanwhile, Federal Reserve minutes indicated that monetary policy will remain cautious and restrictive, with no immediate urgency to cut interest rates as inflation remains a concern.
Minutes from the US Federal Reserve's last meeting in March reveal that “some” participants even wanted more emphasis on the possibility of interest rate hikes, in total divergence from the White House's political objective. At the ECB, the scenario of a rate hike is gaining momentum.
Eurozone inflation is then expected to fall to 2.8% in the third quarter, the central bank estimates.
The European Central Bank (ECB) predicts that inflation will accelerate to 3.1% in the second quarter of 2026 due to rising energy prices caused by the war in the Middle East.
Vítor Costa, executive editor of CNN Portugal, states that the rise in the inflation rate to 2.7% was already expected, given the increase in fuel prices, pressured by the conflict in the Middle East. A trend that, according to the executive editor of CNN Portugal, will continue in the coming months and could translate into interest rate hikes.
Recovery from the damage caused by the war could take several years, the president of the European Central Bank pointed out.
Pedro Santos Guerreiro, executive director of CNN Portugal, analyses the financial consequences of the war in Iran and the interest rate hikes anticipated by the European Central Bank.
The war in Iran has put markets on alert once again. Energy prices have soared, and investors are questioning what the European Central Bank (ECB) will do with interest rates: whether to raise them to contain a potential resurgence of inflation, or to maintain them so as not to stifle an already fragile economy. This...
Álvaro Santos Pereira refuses to speculate on possible interest rate hikes by the ECB but points out that the situation in the eurozone is very different from 2022. “We must keep a cool head,” says the governor.
Eurozone household confidence has just recorded its largest drop since the start of the war in Ukraine, according to an initial survey by the European Commission (EC) conducted between March 1 and 22. This period follows the outbreak of the US and Israeli war against Iran, which escalated into a Persian Gulf conflict and disrupted oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, a crisis that remains ongoing. With this decline, the sharpest in four years, consumer confidence in the Eurozone and the European Union (EU) has sunk to its lowest level in two and a half years. This is a bad sign for households, businesses, and governments, as well as for the European Central Bank (ECB), which is monitoring these statistics to see if consumer pessimism is spreading to inflation expectations. If so, the central bank, led by Christine Lagarde, will have stronger arguments to raise Eurozone interest rates, potentially as early as April, analysts and economists warn.
New projections from the European Central Bank indicate that the assumptions in the Portuguese 2026 State Budget regarding oil prices and Euribor interest rates are outdated due to the conflict involving the US, Israel, and Iran. The ECB has revised its average Brent crude price forecast to $81.3 per barrel, significantly higher than the government's estimate of $65.4, while also projecting higher interest rates. Economists warn that this energy shock could reduce GDP growth and increase inflation, potentially leading to a budget deficit despite government efforts to maintain fiscal balance.
