The article analyses the surprise outcome of the first round of Portugal’s 2026 presidential election, won by António José Seguro and André Ventura, and the failure of many recent polls to foresee those results. It examines how polling published during the campaign understated late dynamics and argues that neither the standings nor vote shares point to a decisive ‘useful vote’ effect. The piece also reflects on the broader consequences for poll credibility and media narratives, warning that dismissing polls or candidates out of hand risks undermining both public understanding and the activity of polling itself.