Global oil production fell by 10.1 million barrels per day in March due to the war in the Middle East, the largest drop ever recorded, the International Energy Agency (IEA) reported on Tuesday, the 14th. In its monthly oil market report, the IEA states that cumulative losses caused by the conflict exceeded 360 million barrels in March and could grow to around 440 million in April if disruptions continue. In early April, Iran's near-blockade of the Strait of Hormuz reduced the flow of crude, natural gas, and refined products through that corridor to 3.8 million barrels per day, down from over 20 million barrels per day in February before hostilities began. Although countries like Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Iraq have opened alternative routes to export part of their production, oil exports suffered losses exceeding 13 million barrels per day, partially offset by the use of reserves which, according to the IEA, are dwindling. The agency has revised its 2026 demand outlook downwards, now estimating an annual average of about 104.3 million barrels per day, representing a reduction of 730,000 barrels per day compared to the March forecast. Between the second and fourth quarters, the drop in consumption could reach 1.5 million barrels per day—the sharpest decline since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic—and if disruptions persist, demand could contract by up to five million barrels per day year-on-year during that period. The report's authors warn that maintaining high levels of disruption will force the consumption of reserves at 'unsustainable' rates of about six million barrels per day, equivalent to two billion barrels over the year. IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol warned that 'April is expected to be worse than March' for the energy sector and described the situation as 'the most serious energy crisis in history,' stressing that the impact extends beyond oil and natural gas, also affecting essential products such as fertilisers, petrochemicals, and helium. OPEC oil production fell by 27.5% in March.