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Economist Luís Aguiar-Conraria analyzes the potential economic fallout of the Middle East conflict, emphasizing that global recession risks depend heavily on policy responses and the stability of oil transport routes.
![If there is an impediment to oil transport [in the strait], it is almost as if 20% of global reserves disappeared](/_next/image?url=https%3A%2F%2Fimg.iol.pt%2Fimage%2Fid%2F69b73b3ed34edcee7c61e93d%2F200.jpg&w=3840&q=75)
The drop in prices reflects greater optimism in the market
This is not the exit of a small peripheral producer, but one of the pillars of the Gulf, a central region for OPEC.
Ed Conway, data and economics editor at Sky News and author of the book “Material World”, warns in an interview with Expresso that the current war in the Persian Gulf “will have repercussions similar” to those of the 1970s oil crisis and that it is difficult to imagine how everything will return to normal. He points to other ongoing trends: “If deglobalisation happens, we will be in a much more inflationary world”.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) highlighted today the “frenetic pace” at which the global energy market is changing, despite its efforts to keep it stable through its production control policy for member countries.
The world's largest condom manufacturer, the Malaysian company Karex, has announced it is preparing to increase the prices of its products by between 20 and 30 percent. The decision is due to the impact of the war involving Iran on global supply chains for petroleum-derived raw materials.
The former Minister of Economy has no doubts that the war will accelerate the energy transition. However, he warns that the world still depends heavily on oil and this crisis could be worse than the 1970s.
According to the consultancy Ember, exports of solar products reached 68 gigawatts (GW) in March, doubling compared to February.
The conflict with Iran has the conditions to be a historical turning point with profound changes in the world's political geography.
A note points to production cuts in several Persian Gulf countries caused by Iranian attacks on oil industry facilities and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
Sailors of various nationalities report panic and are requesting evacuation from ships near where missiles and drones are falling. There are reports that food supplies are beginning to run low in some cases.
An ECB official for two decades, economist Nuno Cassola reveals he had access to documents sent to the ECB by the FED in which the US “gives orders to end cooperation with the Europeans”.
The Trump administration, focused on the economic arms race with China and its foreign policy goals, doesn’t seem to be listening to Europe.
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz is affecting the cocoa market by disrupting fertilizer supply chains and increasing maritime transport tariffs.
Georgieva highlights that the impact of the war on the world economy “is already considerable, even if the conflict turns out to be short-lived” and that the world must prepare to face “difficult times”.
The International Monetary Fund brings no good news: in addition to a slightly lower global economic growth forecast due to the impact of the conflict in the Middle East, there is also the risk of a worldwide recession.
Due to uncertainty related to the conflict, the IMF decided to create a set of scenarios showing the possible impacts of a more prolonged war.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) now admits a scenario close to a global economic recession if the conflict in the Gulf intensifies and leads to damage to energy infrastructure in the region. In this case, considered severe, the institution led by Kristalina Georgieva estimates that global inflation could even slightly exceed 6% by 2027. In the update...
Asset manager BlackRock reported profits of 2.212 billion dollars (approximately 1.875 billion euros at the current exchange rate) in the first quarter of this year, a 46% increase compared to the same period last year, the company announced on Tuesday, the 14th. The profit of the world's largest asset manager, based in New York, was driven by a 27% growth in revenue to 6.698 billion dollars (5.680 billion euros), which the company attributes to positive market impact, growth in fees charged, and increased revenue from technology services and subscriptions. Revenue from technology services and subscriptions grew by 22% due to the performance of the Aladdin platform and the impact of the Preqin acquisition. By the end of March, assets under management at BlackRock reached 13.9 trillion dollars (12.8 trillion euros), up 20% from the end of 2025. BlackRock divests 7.1% of Naturgy in a 1.7 billion operation.
Global oil production fell by 10.1 million barrels per day in March due to the war in the Middle East, the largest drop ever recorded, the International Energy Agency (IEA) reported on Tuesday, the 14th. In its monthly oil market report, the IEA states that cumulative losses caused by the conflict exceeded 360 million barrels in March and could grow to around 440 million in April if disruptions continue. In early April, Iran's near-blockade of the Strait of Hormuz reduced the flow of crude, natural gas, and refined products through that corridor to 3.8 million barrels per day, down from over 20 million barrels per day in February before hostilities began. Although countries like Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Iraq have opened alternative routes to export part of their production, oil exports suffered losses exceeding 13 million barrels per day, partially offset by the use of reserves which, according to the IEA, are dwindling. The agency has revised its 2026 demand outlook downwards, now estimating an annual average of about 104.3 million barrels per day, representing a reduction of 730,000 barrels per day compared to the March forecast. Between the second and fourth quarters, the drop in consumption could reach 1.5 million barrels per day—the sharpest decline since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic—and if disruptions persist, demand could contract by up to five million barrels per day year-on-year during that period. The report's authors warn that maintaining high levels of disruption will force the consumption of reserves at 'unsustainable' rates of about six million barrels per day, equivalent to two billion barrels over the year. IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol warned that 'April is expected to be worse than March' for the energy sector and described the situation as 'the most serious energy crisis in history,' stressing that the impact extends beyond oil and natural gas, also affecting essential products such as fertilisers, petrochemicals, and helium. OPEC oil production fell by 27.5% in March.
The IMF, World Bank, and IEA have issued a joint warning that the impacts of the Middle East conflict on food production, travel, and tourism will be long-lasting. Following the failure of peace talks between the US and Iran, the institutions highlighted that supply chain disruptions, energy shortages, and the displacement of people will continue to affect the global economy, with fuel and fertilizer prices expected to remain high due to infrastructure damage.
Following the failure of this weekend's negotiations in Pakistan, which aimed to end the war against Iran, the negative consequences for the global economy continue to worsen.
Trump's order for the US Navy to seize any vessel that has paid transit fees to Iran has introduced a new risk category into existing maritime war insurance policy clauses. A seizure by a belligerent nation acting under alleged legal authority sits in a grey area between risk of...
Kristalina Georgieva warned of energy and inflation shocks. Oil could fall by 13% and LNG by 20%. The IMF and World Bank spring meetings begin next week.
Kristalina Georgieva, Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), warned this Thursday about the economic impacts of the war in the Middle East during a speech ahead of the organization's Spring Meetings, which take place next week in Washington. “A resilient world economy is being tested again by the war, now on pause, in the Middle East.”
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) warns that the economic impact of wars is more severe and long-lasting than that caused by financial crises or natural disasters. According to two studies from the upcoming World Economic Outlook, GDP drops by approximately 3% at the start of a conflict, with cumulative wealth losses reaching nearly 7% over the following five years. The IMF highlights that these effects leave economic scars that persist for a decade, noting that the rise in global conflicts and increased military spending are creating significant fiscal pressures and long-term debt challenges for nations.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) will cut global growth forecasts due to the war in Iran and sees danger in a world economy ill-prepared to respond to shocks, the IMF managing director stated in an interview with Bloomberg this Tuesday. Before the joint US and Israeli attack on Iran, “we were on track to...”
It is often said that geography is destiny. In the Persian Gulf, as of March 2026, the fate of the Islamic Republic of Iran continues to be measured on the same 20 square kilometres of Kharg Island. What was once a latent threat has transformed into one of the hottest points in the ongoing conflict between the US/Israel and Iran. While US forces have struck military targets on the island, oil infrastructure has been spared for now, though it remains a strategic hostage. The situation has caused oil prices to surge, significantly impacting energy costs and inflation in Europe and Portugal, making Kharg a critical barometer for the broader conflict.
OPEC+ member countries have agreed to increase production, which will be irrelevant as long as the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, analysts warn.
Two loaded supertankers and one empty natural gas carrier crossed the strait along the southern side.
