Latest news and stories about tracking poll in Portugal for expats and residents.
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In TVI/CNN Portugal's daily poll, António José Seguro registers 56.2%, maintaining a comfortable lead over André Ventura despite a downward trend in recent days. The tracking poll for the presidential runoff also shows a consistent rise in voters who say they would cast a blank or null ballot, signalling a protest vote, while undecided voters decline.
António José Seguro leads the first tracking poll of the second round, conducted by Pitagórica. Civil Protection is at maximum state of readiness for the coastal area between Viana do Castelo and Setúbal.
If the elections were held today, 60.9% of voters would vote for António José Seguro, 26.5% for André Ventura and 5.3% would cast blank or null votes. 7.3% of Portuguese voters are still undecided. These are the results without allocation of undecided voters from the first day of the tracking poll for the presidential second round, carried out by Pitagórica for TVI, CNN Portugal, ...
There are more people unsure who to vote for on 8 February among supporters of the Iniciativa Liberal candidate. Among them there are also several who have already decided to cast a blank or even an invalid vote.
The tracking poll for the presidential election second round is live. On the first day, António José Seguro begins comfortably ahead. There is still much to watch, including the intentions of those who voted for Cotrim, Mendes and Gouveia e Melo in the first round.
Alexandre Picoto, head of Pitagórica, explains how the process behind TVI/CNN Portugal's tracking poll allowed monitoring of voting trends over time and produced results that closely reflect reality.
Nuno Santos, director of CNN Portugal, reflects on the role of the TVI/CNN Portugal Tracking Poll in the presidential campaign, notably on whether it has changed the voting intentions of the Portuguese, who, he recalls, 'have sufficient information to make an informed decision when they go to vote, without it being solely influenced by the information collected.'
<p>Pedro Tadeu analyses the <a href="https://cnnportugal.iol.pt/videos/tracking-poll-dia-11-penultimo-dia-da-sondagem-diaria-e-e-assim-que-as-coisas-estao/696958900cf24e58d783c970">tracking poll</a> by CNN Portugal, which keeps André José Seguro, André Ventura and Cotrim de Figueiredo in the top three candidates in a technical tie for the lead.</p>
A tracking poll has become an unexpected focal point of the campaign and the target of daily criticism. What does it measure, how reliable is it, and why did it get things wrong in the past? Conversation with Alexandre Picoto.
Miguel Pinheiro, a commentator for CNN Portugal, analyses the results of this Tuesday's tracking poll.
Day nine of the Tracking Poll, reported by Pedro Benevides, shows a growing three-way dynamic in the Portuguese presidential race: António José Seguro, André Ventura and João Cotrim de Figueiredo are pulling ahead of Henrique Gouveia e Melo and Luís Marques Mendes. The pattern suggests the contest may crystallise into a three-way fight in the final campaign days, and — with the exception of Chega's leader — most main contenders have yet to secure full backing from their own bases.
Commentator João Marcelino analyses the results of CNN Portugal's tracking poll as the campaign progresses: “What we saw yesterday was a perfect storm ravaging Cotrim Figueiredo's candidacy. A serious personal crisis, political mistakes and the communications effort — which is perhaps the best we have seen in this campaign — are also making many mistakes.”
This episode features Paulo Alexandre Pereira, Professor in the Department of Mathematics at the School of Sciences, University of Minho.
In TVI/CNN's latest tracking poll, António José Seguro remains in the lead while Marques Mendes is increasingly further behind the other candidates. Also, André Ventura wants to discuss the country's real problems.
Pedro Tadeu, a commentator for CNN Portugal, takes stock of the first week of the presidential campaign, emphasising the influence of the TVI/CNN Portugal tracking poll.
Commentator Pedro Tadeu analyses the stance adopted by Cotrim de Figueiredo since the release of CNN Portugal's first tracking poll.
António Costa, commentator for CNN Portugal, analyses the result of this Saturday's tracking poll.
Miguel Pinheiro, a commentator at CNN Portugal, analyses the latest results of the broadcaster's most recent tracking poll, which places André Ventura in the lead.
Daily tracking poll data also show Marques Mendes regaining some ground on Gouveia e Melo, who is closing in on Cotrim Figueiredo. Seguro is the only candidate in the top five to register a fall in voting intentions, which already reflect the impact of the tracking poll and the start of the campaign. The number of undecided voters has never been so low.
CNN Portugal commentator Rui Calafate assesses the performance of the candidates for the Presidency after the fourth day of campaigning. He also examines CNN Portugal's tracking poll.
Rui Moreira comments on the evolution of CNN Portugal's tracking poll, which follows Portuguese voting intentions for the presidential election. The commentator also analyses the latest debate in the run-up to these elections, which was marked by barbs between Marques Mendes and Gouveia e Melo.
António José Seguro’s lead is reinforced on the third day of Pitagórica’s tracking poll for CNN Portugal, TVI, JN and TSF. André Ventura remains in second place — rising by 1.2 percentage points. Cotrim de Figueiredo, despite a small decline, increases his advantage over Henrique Gouveia e Melo, who records the largest loss of votes among all candidates. Meanwhile, Luís Marques Mendes achieves his highest level since these polls began. Technical details Over three days (2, 3 and 4 January 2026) Pitagórica collected daily for TVI, CNN Portugal, TSF and JN a minimum of 202 to 203 interviews (depending on quota fulfilments) to ensure a daily subsample representative of the Portuguese electorate (non-probabilistic). Sampling criteria were gender, three age brackets and 20 geographic divisions (districts, Madeira and the Azores). The compilation of the last three working days of fieldwork resulted in a sample of 608 interviews which, for a confidence level of 95.5%, corresponds to a maximum margin of error of ±4.06%. Respondents were selected via random generation of mobile phone numbers, maintaining the proportion of the three main mobile operators. Where necessary, landline numbers were randomly selected to support compliance with the sampling plan. Interviews were conducted by telephone (CATI – Computer Assisted Telephone Interviewing). The study aims to assess the opinions of Portuguese voters on issues related to the presidential elections, namely the main protagonists, moments of the campaign, and voting intention for the various candidates. There were 1,244 contact attempts to obtain 608 effective interviews, giving a response rate of 48.87%. The distribution of undecided voters is done proportionally. The technical direction of the study is the responsibility of Rita Marques da Silva. The complete technical sheet, and all results, have been filed with the ERC – Entidade Reguladora da Comunicação Social (Media Regulatory Authority), which will make them available for online consultation.
On the second day of Pitagórica’s tracking poll for CNN Portugal, TVI, JN and TSF, António José Seguro slightly increases his lead. Meanwhile, Gouveia e Melo is overtaken by André Ventura and Cotrim de Figueiredo draws closer to the two. The tracking poll also confirms the decline of Luís Marques Mendes.
CNN Portugal commentator João Marcelino analyses the first day of Pitagórica's tracking poll for CNN Portugal, highlighting the drop in Marques Mendes's support and the rise in Gouveia e Melo's support compared with other polls.
