The poll that annoys everyone

A tracking poll has become an unexpected focal point of the campaign and the target of daily criticism. What does it measure, how reliable is it, and why did it get things wrong in the past? Conversation with Alexandre Picoto.

Observador16 Jan

Presidential race will "be a three-way contest until the final". "I wouldn't put money on this"

Miguel Pinheiro, a commentator for CNN Portugal, analyses the results of this Tuesday's tracking poll.

CNN Portugal13 Jan

Tracking poll, day 9: a trend is beginning to form for the presidential election

CNN Portugal13 Jan

What we saw yesterday was a perfect storm ravaging Cotrim Figueiredo's campaign

Commentator João Marcelino analyses the results of CNN Portugal's tracking poll as the campaign progresses: “What we saw yesterday was a perfect storm ravaging Cotrim Figueiredo's candidacy. A serious personal crisis, political mistakes and the communications effort — which is perhaps the best we have seen in this campaign — are also making many mistakes.”

CNN Portugal13 Jan

The campaign, shaped by a tracking poll, awaits more clarity from today's survey

This episode features Paulo Alexandre Pereira, Professor in the Department of Mathematics at the School of Sciences, University of Minho.

Público13 Jan

9pm Tracking Poll: António José Seguro remains in the lead

In TVI/CNN's latest tracking poll, António José Seguro remains in the lead while Marques Mendes is increasingly further behind the other candidates. Also, André Ventura wants to discuss the country's real problems.

Observador11 Jan

First week of the campaign marked by 'rise of Cotrim' and 'fall of Marques Mendes'

Pedro Tadeu, a commentator for CNN Portugal, takes stock of the first week of the presidential campaign, emphasising the influence of the TVI/CNN Portugal tracking poll.

CNN Portugal11 Jan

Tracking poll 'made Cotrim de Figueiredo realise there is a lack of conviction on Marques Mendes's campaign, which he could exploit'

Commentator Pedro Tadeu analyses the stance adopted by Cotrim de Figueiredo since the release of CNN Portugal's first tracking poll.

CNN Portugal11 Jan

Tracking poll: "We're discovering that the country is even more different than the one we thought we knew when Ventura rose to prominence"

António Costa, commentator for CNN Portugal, analyses the result of this Saturday's tracking poll.

CNN Portugal10 Jan

Marques Mendes "changed his strategy at the worst possible moment"

Miguel Pinheiro, a commentator at CNN Portugal, analyses the latest results of the broadcaster's most recent tracking poll, which places André Ventura in the lead.

CNN Portugal8 Jan

Tracking Poll, dia 4: André Ventura ultrapassa Seguro num dia em que Gouveia e Melo volta a colar-se a Cotrim

Daily tracking poll data also show Marques Mendes regaining some ground on Gouveia e Melo, who is drawing closer to Cotrim Figueiredo. Seguro is the only candidate among the top five to register a fall in voting intentions, which already reflect the impact of the tracking poll and the start of the campaign. The number of undecided voters has never been so low. Technical details: Over three days (4, 5 and 6 January 2026) Pitagórica collected a minimum of 202 to 203 interviews each day for TVI, CNN Portugal, TSF and JN (depending on quota adjustments), ensuring a daily subsample intended to be representative of the Portuguese electorate (non-probabilistic). Sampling criteria included gender, three age groups and 20 geographic strata (districts, Madeira and the Azores). The combined result from the three final days of fieldwork produced a sample of 608 interviews which, for a 95.5% confidence level, corresponds to a maximum margin of error of ±4.06%. Respondents were selected by random generation of mobile phone numbers, maintaining the proportion of the three main mobile operators. Where necessary, landline numbers were randomly selected to support the sampling plan. Interviews were conducted by telephone (CATI – Computer Assisted Telephone Interviewing). The study aims to assess Portuguese voters' opinions on issues related to the presidential elections, including the main players, campaign moments and the voting intentions for the various candidates. A total of 1,244 contact attempts were made to achieve 608 completed interviews, giving a response rate of 48.87%. The distribution of undecided voters is allocated proportionally. The study's technical direction is the responsibility of Rita Marques da Silva. The full technical sheet and all results have been deposited with the ERC (Entidade Reguladora da Comunicação Social), which will make them available online.

CNN Portugal8 Jan

Tracking poll, day 4: Ventura surpasses Seguro and leads among the five in a statistical tie

Daily tracking poll data also show Marques Mendes regaining some ground on Gouveia e Melo, who is closing in on Cotrim Figueiredo. Seguro is the only candidate in the top five to register a fall in voting intentions, which already reflect the impact of the tracking poll and the start of the campaign. The number of undecided voters has never been so low.

CNN Portugal8 Jan

'If someone is going to withdraw, let it be now: on Sunday there is advance voting' - Rui Calafate makes an appeal as he reviews the presidential campaign (and the CNN tracking poll)

CNN Portugal commentator Rui Calafate assesses the performance of the candidates for the Presidency after the fourth day of campaigning. He also examines CNN Portugal's tracking poll.

CNN Portugal7 Jan

It's not normal to reach an election campaign and suddenly resort to personal attacks

Rui Moreira comments on the evolution of CNN Portugal's tracking poll, which follows Portuguese voting intentions for the presidential election. The commentator also analyses the latest debate in the run-up to these elections, which was marked by barbs between Marques Mendes and Gouveia e Melo.

CNN Portugal7 Jan

Tracking poll, day 3: Cotrim isolates himself in third on a day of three overtakes

António José Seguro’s lead is reinforced on the third day of Pitagórica’s tracking poll for CNN Portugal, TVI, JN and TSF. André Ventura remains in second place — rising by 1.2 percentage points. Cotrim de Figueiredo, despite a small decline, increases his advantage over Henrique Gouveia e Melo, who records the largest loss of votes among all candidates. Meanwhile, Luís Marques Mendes achieves his highest level since these polls began. Technical details Over three days (2, 3 and 4 January 2026) Pitagórica collected daily for TVI, CNN Portugal, TSF and JN a minimum of 202 to 203 interviews (depending on quota fulfilments) to ensure a daily subsample representative of the Portuguese electorate (non-probabilistic). Sampling criteria were gender, three age brackets and 20 geographic divisions (districts, Madeira and the Azores). The compilation of the last three working days of fieldwork resulted in a sample of 608 interviews which, for a confidence level of 95.5%, corresponds to a maximum margin of error of ±4.06%. Respondents were selected via random generation of mobile phone numbers, maintaining the proportion of the three main mobile operators. Where necessary, landline numbers were randomly selected to support compliance with the sampling plan. Interviews were conducted by telephone (CATI – Computer Assisted Telephone Interviewing). The study aims to assess the opinions of Portuguese voters on issues related to the presidential elections, namely the main protagonists, moments of the campaign, and voting intention for the various candidates. There were 1,244 contact attempts to obtain 608 effective interviews, giving a response rate of 48.87%. The distribution of undecided voters is done proportionally. The technical direction of the study is the responsibility of Rita Marques da Silva. The complete technical sheet, and all results, have been filed with the ERC – Entidade Reguladora da Comunicação Social (Media Regulatory Authority), which will make them available for online consultation.

CNN Portugal7 Jan

Tracking poll, day 2: Seguro leads, Ventura rises and Cotrim closes in on Gouveia e Melo

On the second day of Pitagórica’s tracking poll for CNN Portugal, TVI, JN and TSF, António José Seguro slightly increases his lead. Meanwhile, Gouveia e Melo is overtaken by André Ventura and Cotrim de Figueiredo draws closer to the two. The tracking poll also confirms the decline of Luís Marques Mendes.

CNN Portugal6 Jan

We are led to think that the debate between Marques Mendes and Gouveia e Melo shifted the polls

CNN Portugal commentator João Marcelino analyses the first day of Pitagórica's tracking poll for CNN Portugal, highlighting the drop in Marques Mendes's support and the rise in Gouveia e Melo's support compared with other polls.

CNN Portugal6 Jan