The International Monetary Fund (Fundo Monetário Internacional or FMI) revised Portugal's gross domestic product (Produto Interno Bruto or PIB) growth forecast upward to 2.1% for this year and 1.9% for 2027 in its latest World Economic Outlook. However, the projections remain below the government's forecasts presented in the draft 2027 State Budget (Orçamento do Estado). The fund warned of persistent inflation and weaker growth among major European trading partners, complicating government fiscal targets.
IMF Raises Portugal Growth Forecast but Warns on 2027 Inflation
Tuesday, 13 October 2026AI summary
Context & Explainers
The State Budget (Orçamento do Estado or OE) is Portugal's annual law that sets public spending, taxes and economic policy; the government prepares a draft and the Assembly of the Republic votes on it so the rules usually take effect from January 1. OE 2026 modestly strengthens tax measures linked to teleworking, which can change how home-office costs, employer contributions or deductions are treated and therefore matters for expats who work remotely from Portugal because it can affect net pay and tax reporting.
8 sources
- Managers in Portugal declare just 5% more than employeesThe Portugal News ·
- IMF contradicts 2027 State Budget scenario: Portugal will grow less and inflation will be much higherdn.pt ·
- IMF expects higher inflation and lower growth than the Governmentpublico.pt ·
- IMF revises Portuguese GDP growth upwards to 2.1% this year and 1.9% in 2027rtp.pt ·
- Eurozone economy to grow 1.1% in 2026 and 1.2% in 2027cmjornal.pt ·
- Government forecast for private investment does not seem feasible. There are no measures to boost iteco.sapo.pt ·
- IMF more pessimistic than the Government: 2027 brings more inflation and less economic growth in PortugalExpresso ·
- IMF revises Portuguese economic growth upwards, but maintains forecasts below those of the Governmentcnnportugal.iol.pt ·
