The surprise runoff between António José Seguro and André Ventura, set for 8 February, signals counter-power reaching Belém and exposes the deep fragmentation revealed in the first round. The pairing — a centre-left establishment figure facing a populist Chega leader — increases uncertainty over governability, forces realignments across the political spectrum and will pressure the Government to defend institutions while recalibrating policy priorities. The second round outcome will depend on turnout and how votes from eliminated candidates transfer, with potential consequences for debate on immigration, social policy and the balance of forces in parliament.