New projections from the European Central Bank indicate that the assumptions in the Portuguese 2026 State Budget regarding oil prices and Euribor interest rates are outdated due to the conflict involving the US, Israel, and Iran. The ECB has revised its average Brent crude price forecast to $81.3 per barrel, significantly higher than the government's estimate of $65.4, while also projecting higher interest rates. Economists warn that this energy shock could reduce GDP growth and increase inflation, potentially leading to a budget deficit despite government efforts to maintain fiscal balance.