Tracking poll, day 5: Ventura maintains lead, Cotrim closes in on Seguro
Daily poll data also show that Gouveia e Melo has fallen again and that Marques Mendes registered a slight rise and is drawing closer to the admiral. In addition, the gap between fifth place and first place has increased. Technical details: Over three days (4, 5 and 6 January 2026) a minimum of 202 to 203 interviews were collected daily by Pitagórica for TVI, CNN Portugal, TSF and JN (depending on adjustments to the sample quotas) to ensure a daily subsample representative of the Portuguese electoral universe (non-probabilistic). The sampling criteria were gender, three age groups and 20 geographic strata (districts, Madeira and the Azores). The compilation of the last three days of fieldwork produced a sample of 608 interviews which, for a confidence level of 95.5%, corresponds to a maximum margin of error of ±4.06%. Interviewees were selected by randomly generating mobile phone numbers, maintaining the proportion of the three main mobile operators. Where necessary, landline numbers were randomly selected to support the sampling plan. Interviews were collected by telephone (CATI – Computer Assisted Telephone Interviewing). The study aims to assess Portuguese voters' opinions on issues related to the presidential elections, namely the main protagonists, moments of the campaign, as well as voting intention for the various candidates. A total of 1,244 contact attempts were made to obtain 608 completed interviews, giving a response rate of 48.87%. The distribution of undecided voters is done proportionally. The technical direction of the study is the responsibility of Rita Marques da Silva. The full technical sheet, as well as all the results, have been deposited with the ERC – Entidade Reguladora da Comunicação Social, which will make them available for online consultation.
Tracking poll, day 3: Cotrim isolates himself in third on a day of three overtakes
António José Seguro’s lead is reinforced on the third day of Pitagórica’s tracking poll for CNN Portugal, TVI, JN and TSF. André Ventura remains in second place — rising by 1.2 percentage points. Cotrim de Figueiredo, despite a small decline, increases his advantage over Henrique Gouveia e Melo, who records the largest loss of votes among all candidates. Meanwhile, Luís Marques Mendes achieves his highest level since these polls began. Technical details Over three days (2, 3 and 4 January 2026) Pitagórica collected daily for TVI, CNN Portugal, TSF and JN a minimum of 202 to 203 interviews (depending on quota fulfilments) to ensure a daily subsample representative of the Portuguese electorate (non-probabilistic). Sampling criteria were gender, three age brackets and 20 geographic divisions (districts, Madeira and the Azores). The compilation of the last three working days of fieldwork resulted in a sample of 608 interviews which, for a confidence level of 95.5%, corresponds to a maximum margin of error of ±4.06%. Respondents were selected via random generation of mobile phone numbers, maintaining the proportion of the three main mobile operators. Where necessary, landline numbers were randomly selected to support compliance with the sampling plan. Interviews were conducted by telephone (CATI – Computer Assisted Telephone Interviewing). The study aims to assess the opinions of Portuguese voters on issues related to the presidential elections, namely the main protagonists, moments of the campaign, and voting intention for the various candidates. There were 1,244 contact attempts to obtain 608 effective interviews, giving a response rate of 48.87%. The distribution of undecided voters is done proportionally. The technical direction of the study is the responsibility of Rita Marques da Silva. The complete technical sheet, and all results, have been filed with the ERC – Entidade Reguladora da Comunicação Social (Media Regulatory Authority), which will make them available for online consultation.
