Last-minute decision: Seguro won an election that two weeks ago seemed impossible
The Socialist candidate prevailed where the race was still open: among undecided voters, the least loyal supporters and those who waited until the end to choose. It was in that final sprint that he went from a recovering candidate to winner of the first round.
Null votes exceeded blank votes for the first time in presidential elections
Both null votes and blank votes increased compared with 2021
Mendes received as many votes from the AD as Cotrim — and records the worst presidential result for a Government‑backed candidate
The AD electorate split into four in this presidential contest. Ventura was the most successful at retaining votes from the legislative elections. Gouveia e Melo ended up with more votes from the AD than from the PS. Data from the Expresso/SIC poll.
Almost a third of voters decided their vote in the final week; 38% of them voted for Seguro
Fourteen percent decided their vote on election day. Cotrim closed the gap to Ventura in the final week, but not enough. Seguro surprised by winning among more highly educated voters and almost beating Cotrim among younger voters. See the polling data from ICS/ISCTE, GfK and Pitagórica for Expresso and SIC.
The tactical vote or the fear of electing an incompetent president
These presidential elections present a kind of paradox for the electorate.