Latest news and stories about polls in Portugal for expats and residents.
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A SIC/Expresso poll shows Seguro with 51% of voting intentions and Ventura with 27%. A CNN tracking poll reveals a slight fall for the former PS secretary-general and a rise for the leader of Chega.
Ana Abrunhosa (PS) says António José Seguro will be the most harmed if turnout falls. Patrícia Almeida (Chega) predicts André Ventura will receive at least 30% of the vote.
The secretary-general of the PCP today criticised the 'manoeuvre of the poll operation' in the presidential election, saying the contest will be marked by 'conditionalism', and reiterated the appeal to vote for Seguro to 'ensure Ventura's defeat'.
Francisco Rodrigues dos Santos reacts to Henrique Gouveia e Melo's result in the aftermath of the first round of the presidential election, reflecting on the role of polls in Portuguese voters' final vote.
Coming fourth in these elections, the Admiral blamed the opinion polls but accepted the defeat with composure.
Polls were unanimous in predicting António José Seguro's victory.
The end of the election campaign brings accusations and many undecided voters. Between a Montenegro 'in tatters' and a Cotrim 'buried', who will make it through? And do the polls reflect the reality of voters' choices?
António Costa Pinto, a political scientist and academic, says there is a clear lack of literacy and that the Portuguese do not know how to interpret polls. He also warns about differences between tracking polls.
If we let ourselves be influenced by the polls, we are sabotaging that ‘what will happen’, paradoxically distorting the polls’ own findings. Column by Miguel Esteves Cardoso
After a day dominated by Cotrim, the campaign continues today with further visits to fairs and markets and with expectations that new polls will be published.
Do the polls change votes? Is the street no longer a barometer? Have the anti-establishment candidates really lost momentum? Did Cotrim undo his moment with Monday's contradiction? The first round of the presidential election is nearing its end with five candidates and nerves running high.
The presidential candidate says that 'if the polls are meant to create political effects, I think that is bad for democracy.'
Despite polls showing him trailing his main rivals, Marques Mendes remains confident that the ballot boxes will prove the numbers wrong after meeting several PSD and Government heavyweights. His public assertion — “it’s not just conviction” — frames a campaign narrative that emphasizes organisational strength, voter mobilisation and the possibility of late swings or polling error. Analysts should watch whether his meetings translate into concrete tactical advantages such as endorsements, ground operations or improved messaging, but the gap in polls still represents a significant challenge that will require measurable momentum to overcome.
The campaign does not believe the polls that have been released and is confident of a first-round victory. Rangel warned: 'sprinter' Mendes will surprise in these elections.
On the seventh day on the campaign trail he had another minister join the campaign. This time it was Paulo Rangel, who said Mendes will 'shoot up' next week. The candidate says he has 'confidence' and is intent on discrediting the daily polls. In the Minho region he aimed barbs at opponents André Ventura and Cotrim Figueiredo: 'Young people's problems are not solved on TikTok'
Marques Mendes says the polls are 'completely wrong'.
Poll results, candidates' health issues and public endorsements dominated the day's campaign events ahead of the presidential election.
Gouveia e Melo campaigned against the polls at the Feira de Senhora in Matosinhos. He says they are manipulated and that the real verdict will be seen on the streets and on the 18th. The candidate is in the Porto district this Saturday.
Presidential candidate Luís Marques Mendes predicted today that all polls and analyses will be “completely mistaken” about the results on 18 January, a statement he said was based not only on conviction.
For the tortoise, Seguro, to reach the second round he will have to defeat several hares. How the candidates adjust their strategy daily in response to the polls.
The daily Pitagórica poll for TVI, CNN, TSF and JN places Ventura in first, with 20.5% of voting intentions. Also, Kyiv and Lviv were targeted in a massive attack by Russia.
Internal studies carried out after the debate with the admiral suggest to Mendes's team that the candidate's image has not been dented.
Alexandre Picoto (Pitagórica), António Gomes (GfK Metris), António Salvador (Intercampus) and João António (Cesop / Católica) were the special guests on this edition of Vichyssoise, halfway through the race to Belém.
Campaigning in Setúbal, Marques Mendes again downplayed the polls.
