Catholic University projection puts Seguro and either Ventura or Cotrim into the presidential run-off
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A poll by the Catholic University for RTP indicates that António José Seguro would advance to the second round of the presidential election, together with either André Ventura or João Cotrim de Figueiredo.
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With one day to go until the campaign closes, the undecided voters come out on top.
Ventura and Seguro in a technical tie in the last major poll before the presidential election
Cotrim de Figueiredo now occupies third place. Marques Mendes and Gouveia e Melo have fallen and are tied for fourth.
Tracking poll, day 6: Seguro again in front, Cotrim rises to second, Ventura on the podium
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The daily poll again reshuffles the top three in a five-way technical tie. Cotrim de Figueiredo continues to climb and, for the first time, joins the pair leading the race to a second round.
Tracking poll: "We're discovering that the country is even more different than the one we thought we knew when Ventura rose to prominence"
António Costa, commentator for CNN Portugal, analyses the result of this Saturday's tracking poll.
Tracking Poll, dia 4: André Ventura ultrapassa Seguro num dia em que Gouveia e Melo volta a colar-se a Cotrim
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Daily tracking poll data also show Marques Mendes regaining some ground on Gouveia e Melo, who is drawing closer to Cotrim Figueiredo. Seguro is the only candidate among the top five to register a fall in voting intentions, which already reflect the impact of the tracking poll and the start of the campaign. The number of undecided voters has never been so low. Technical details: Over three days (4, 5 and 6 January 2026) Pitagórica collected a minimum of 202 to 203 interviews each day for TVI, CNN Portugal, TSF and JN (depending on quota adjustments), ensuring a daily subsample intended to be representative of the Portuguese electorate (non-probabilistic). Sampling criteria included gender, three age groups and 20 geographic strata (districts, Madeira and the Azores). The combined result from the three final days of fieldwork produced a sample of 608 interviews which, for a 95.5% confidence level, corresponds to a maximum margin of error of ±4.06%. Respondents were selected by random generation of mobile phone numbers, maintaining the proportion of the three main mobile operators. Where necessary, landline numbers were randomly selected to support the sampling plan. Interviews were conducted by telephone (CATI – Computer Assisted Telephone Interviewing). The study aims to assess Portuguese voters' opinions on issues related to the presidential elections, including the main players, campaign moments and the voting intentions for the various candidates. A total of 1,244 contact attempts were made to achieve 608 completed interviews, giving a response rate of 48.87%. The distribution of undecided voters is allocated proportionally. The study's technical direction is the responsibility of Rita Marques da Silva. The full technical sheet and all results have been deposited with the ERC (Entidade Reguladora da Comunicação Social), which will make them available online.
14:00 — Ventura says that, nowadays, Sá Carneiro would be a member of Chega
André Ventura says Cavaco Silva does not own Sá Carneiro's ideals and that Sá Carneiro is not exclusive to the PSD. Also, Marques Mendes downplays the poll result that places him in fifth place.
