Latest news and stories about global markets in Portugal for expats and residents.
The Trump administration has temporarily lifted sanctions on Russian oil for one month, a move analyzed by experts regarding its limited impact on global market shortages and the potential European reaction.
Markets end the week focused on the Middle East, where US-Iran relations continue to influence investor sentiment. Despite geopolitical tensions, including maritime incidents in the Gulf of Oman and stalled ceasefire talks, risk assets have shown remarkable resilience. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq remain near record highs, driven by the technology sector. Conversely, oil prices have climbed above $105 per barrel due to concerns over supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. This rise in energy costs is tempering expectations for rapid interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, raising questions about whether current market optimism reflects economic strength or investor complacency.
Filipe Garcia, economist and president of Informação de Mercados Financeiros, admits to some instability but rejects the idea of chaos. “The global view of the markets is that we are moving towards an agreement.”
Economist Filipe Grilo forecasts the impact on international markets of the US threat to block all shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.
International markets show moderate optimism today in response to negotiations aimed at a prolonged truce between the United States and Iran, which are taking place this weekend in Islamabad under the auspices of Pakistan.
This week was marked by significant gains in global stock markets as investors focused on the Middle East conflict. A temporary two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran was announced on Tuesday night, signalling an attempt to de-escalate tensions. Markets reacted positively, with major indices like the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and DAX seeing significant gains on Wednesday. The agreement boosted risk appetite, supported by falling energy prices, though doubts quickly emerged following Israeli strikes on Hezbollah targets in Lebanon. Despite this uncertainty, investors remain encouraged by the US administration's intent to reduce conflict exposure. Meanwhile, Federal Reserve minutes indicated that monetary policy will remain cautious and restrictive, with no immediate urgency to cut interest rates as inflation remains a concern.
Wall Street breathes a sigh of relief with the two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran and follows the strong gains recorded in Europe, with the main indices adding more than 3% at the start of the American session. The S&P 500 accelerates 2.50% to 6,786.11 points, and is accompanied by the tech-heavy Nasdaq and the industrial Dow.
Eight OPEC+ countries will boost production by 206,000 barrels per day, adding that the full repair of damaged energy infrastructure will 'take a long time', without mentioning Iran. The announcement was made in a statement at the end of a virtual meeting between Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and others.
Brent crude jumped 5% to 106.22 dollars, the US benchmark crude rose 4.2% to 104.36 dollars, and the Japanese Nikkei index lost 1.4% following Trump's threats to attack Iran with “great force”.
Vasco Rosendo, Economy editor at CNN Portugal, points out that there are “contradictory signals” between the US and Iran that prevent the stabilisation of global markets.
On Thursday, Benjamin Netanyahu said in a press conference that Iran was “being decimated” and that Israel was “winning the war”.
The price of Brent crude for May delivery fell by more than 2% this Wednesday, the 18th, though it remained around 100 dollars per barrel, following an agreement between Kurdistan and Iraq to resume oil flows. At 7:30 am today (6:30 am in mainland Portugal), Brent crude was down 2.41%, trading at 100.93 dollars per barrel, according to Bloomberg data. Similarly, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was down 3.73% at that time, trading at 92.62 dollars. The previous day, crude prices had risen again due to the ongoing blockade of traffic in the Strait of Hormuz and the refusal of several NATO allies to intervene in the passage, despite a request from US President Donald Trump. Iraq announced in the last few hours that it will resume part of its oil exports, totaling 250,000 barrels per day, transported by pipeline to a Turkish port, following an agreement with the authorities of Iraqi Kurdistan. With the war in the Middle East triggered on February 28 by the Israeli-American offensive against Iran, Iraq had completely halted its exports and authorities were seeking alternatives to the Strait of Hormuz. The Kurdistan Ministry of Natural Resources confirmed in a statement that operations began at 06:30 local time (03:30 Lisbon time) for the export of oil 'through the Kurdistan pipeline to the Turkish port of Ceyhan'. Iranian attacks on oil tankers and other oil infrastructure, in retaliation for the Israeli-American attack launched on February 28, have practically paralyzed navigation through the strait, preventing producing countries like Iraq from moving their production. The United States and Israel launched a military attack on Iran on February 28, which they justified by the Islamic Republic's inflexibility in negotiations to end uranium enrichment as part of its nuclear program, which it claims is intended only for civilian purposes. In retaliation, Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz and launched attacks against targets in Israel, US bases, and other infrastructure in countries in the region such as Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Kuwait, Lebanon, Jordan, Oman, and Iraq. Incidents involving Iranian projectiles were also recorded in Cyprus, Turkey, and Azerbaijan. Brent crude oil price falls slightly but remains around 100 dollars per barrel.
Luís Costa Ribas, CNN Portugal correspondent in the US, explains the reasons that led the US to lift sanctions on Russian oil
The International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz due to the war in the Middle East will cause a collapse in global oil supply of eight million barrels per day in March. In its monthly oil market report published today, the IEA highlights that with this...
The President of the United States suggested that military operations in Iran will end in the short term, statements that “calmed the markets”, according to analysts.
The article discusses the recent performance of Wall Street, which closed with slight gains and losses amid conflicting signals from the Middle East, specifically from the Strait of Ormuz. It highlights the market's cautious outlook due to geopolitical tensions and their potential impact on global markets, including Portugal. The piece emphasizes that despite minor fluctuations, investor sentiment remains sensitive to international developments, influencing market stability and economic prospects in Portugal and beyond.
With the near-total closure of the Strait of Hormuz since March 1st, nearly 200 million barrels of oil from the Gulf have not entered the market. The fear of a prolonged war pushed oil prices to near 120 dollars this Monday at the opening of the Asian session. The G7 decided to intervene. Expresso spoke with Barry Eichengreen, Peter Cohan, Dan Steinbock, Pedro Amaral, João Queiroz, and Luis Mah.
