Government now sees economic growth this year at only 2%
The Ministry of Finance remains more optimistic than other institutions regarding GDP growth this year.

Latest news and stories about gdp growth in Portugal for expats and residents.
The Ministry of Finance remains more optimistic than other institutions regarding GDP growth this year.

The war in Iran is leading major economic institutions to revise growth prospects downwards, and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is no exception. Similar to its stance on global activity expansion, the institution led by Kristalina Georgieva is now more pessimistic about the performance of the Portuguese economy.

The European Commission estimated this Friday that the European Union's (EU) Gross Domestic Product (GDP) could grow by 0.4 to 0.6 percentage points less this year compared to previous forecasts due to the impact of the conflict in the Middle East. Our analysis suggests that EU growth in 2026 could be around 0.4 percentage points lower.

The central bank sees the economy growing below 2% this year and inflation soaring due to rising energy prices.

The Governor of the Bank of Portugal (BdP), Álvaro Santos Pereira, explained that despite the expected boost from reconstruction efforts and the PTRR (Portugal Transformation, Recovery and Resilience plan), the severe storms that hit the country in early 2026 will result in a net negative impact on the year's overall GDP growth, estimated at a reduction of 0.1 percentage points.

The US and Israeli attack on Iran at the end of February abruptly changed the economic landscape for Portugal. The Banco de Portugal has sharply revised its growth projections for this year, now pointing to a GDP expansion of 1.8% in 2026, down 0.5 percentage points compared to...

India recorded the highest annual growth (7.5%), followed by Indonesia (5.1%) and China (5.0%).

OECD GDP growth for 2025 remained at 1.8%, while G20 growth rose slightly to 3.4% from 3.2% in 2024, according to initial annual estimates released by the OECD on Monday, the 16th. In a statement, the OECD noted that among G20 countries with available data, India recorded the highest annual growth (7.5%), followed by Indonesia (5.1%) and China (5.0%), while Italy (0.2%) and Germany (0.5%) recorded the lowest. On a quarterly basis compared to the same quarter of the previous year, G20 GDP grew by 3.2% in the fourth quarter of 2025. OECD inflation slowed to 3.3% in January, with prices 35% above pre-COVID levels.

On the other hand, nominal GDP "grew faster than the debt 'stock' in the remaining 11 OECD countries in 2025.

The article from Datosmacro.com provides an overview of Portugal's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the year 2025. It reports a growth of 1.9% compared to 2024, which is a slight decrease from the previous year's growth rate of 2.2%. The total GDP for 2025 is estimated at €306.738 billion (approximately $313.271 billion), ranking Portugal as the 47th largest economy among 196 countries. The article includes quarterly GDP data for 2025, showing a gradual increase in GDP throughout the year, with the fourth quarter recording a GDP of €78.459 billion. Additionally, it presents per capita GDP figures, indicating a positive trend in income levels. For further insights, the article links to additional economic data regarding public spending, public deficit, and public debt in Portugal. Overall, the article highlights the steady economic growth of Portugal in 2025, despite a slight slowdown compared to the previous year.

The CIP/ISEG Economic Situation Barometer has slightly revised its forecasts for the growth of the Portuguese economy, now indicating a rate between 1.8% and 1.9% in 2025. This improvement of 0.1 percentage points (pp.) from the previous estimate is due to the performance recorded in the third quarter.

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 2.4% in the third quarter year-on-year, and by 0.8% quarter-on-quarter, according to a quick estimate.
