The executive director of CM says that the Bank of Portugal's forecasts point to a decrease in GDP and an increase in inflation. He adds that the longer the war lasts, the worse this scenario becomes.
Portugal's GDP (Gross Domestic Product) per capita, expressed in purchasing power parities (PPP), was 81% of the European Union (EU) average in 2025, Eurostat announced this Wednesday. According to preliminary data for 2025, GDP per capita expressed in PPP – to account for differences in...
Finance Minister Joaquim Miranda Sarmento anticipated this Tuesday, March 24, that the 2025 budget surplus, to be released this Thursday by the National Statistics Institute, will be a “pleasant surprise and good news for the country.” The Government had forecast a surplus of 0.3% of GDP for 2025, but the minister had already signaled it would be higher than expected. During a presentation at the Strategic Council of the Portuguese Development Bank in Oeiras, Lisbon, Miranda Sarmento highlighted that last year's budget balance “will be well above the forecasts of entities and expectations.” The minister noted that this figure “will be a pleasant surprise and good news for the country,” which will also have a “positive carry-over effect for 2026.” While the 2025 surplus “makes the margin less tight,” two events in the first quarter of this year—storms and the war in Iran—have “made the margin tight again.” Nevertheless, Miranda Sarmento emphasized that balanced public accounts “are fundamental for the country,” and the Government will maintain this principle while “continuing to support the economy and families.” Regarding economic growth, the minister acknowledged that the storms and the situation in Iran “greatly condition what 2026 will be,” but the Government's expectation was for GDP growth above 2%. “We will see the impact the storms had in the first quarter and, the longer the conflict lasts, what impact there will be,” he stated.
The country's economic activity in the first quarter of this year did not escape the devastation caused by the storm Kristin, the Governor of the Bank of Portugal announced this Monday in Leiria. The country has never experienced such a damaging event for its Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the recent past, not even during the devastating fires.
The Bank of Portugal announced today that the national economy recorded an external surplus of 112 million euros in January, a year-on-year decrease of 510 million euros, or 82%. This deterioration is partly due to a worsening of the goods trade deficit, which increased by 230 million euros, with exports falling by 342 million and imports decreasing by 111 million. Simultaneously, the services surplus contracted by 172 million euros, mainly due to a 108 million drop in the transport services balance, attributed to greater use of maritime freight transport. The reduction in European Union financial contributions also removed 73 million from the secondary income balance, while the capital account fell by about 71 million, largely due to increased acquisition of carbon emission permits. Regarding the financial account, the Bank of Portugal highlights a positive balance of nearly 60 million euros in January, driven mainly by the central bank — through a reduction in deposit liabilities — and by insurance companies and pension funds, which increased assets in deposits. Conversely, banks and public administrations reduced their net external assets, reflecting an increase in deposit liabilities and higher non-resident investment in Portuguese public debt, according to the bank led by Álvaro Santos Pereira. Net external debt falls to 36.2% of GDP in 2025, reaching a low not seen since 2001.