The oil shock is taking shape, with Brent crude oil trading above $85, an 18% increase since the start of the war against Iran. A significant rise in fuel costs is expected next Monday, but another burden is emerging: the cost of fertilisers, which directly impacts agricultural production and livestock farming. After the oil crisis, a food crisis seems to be forming. Major fertiliser producers, many located in the Middle East, are affected by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, controlled by Iran. Analysts warn that the price of imported food in Portugal and many European countries is set to soar. Portugal has had weak food sovereignty for decades, importing €5.1 billion in agricultural products last year, an 8% increase from 2024. The dependence on fertilisers is also significant, with imports rising to €342 million in 2025, an 8% increase from the previous year. The meat market is similarly affected, with Portugal importing €2.1 billion in meat last year, a 22% annual increase. Economists warn that European countries, especially those heavily reliant on agriculture, will be among the most affected globally if the conflict continues, leading to higher food prices and potential shortages.
Following an oil shock, a food shock may come due to fertilisers
Context & Explainers
Deco Proteste is Portugal's largest consumer rights organization, providing independent product testing, legal advice, dispute mediation, and advocacy on behalf of consumers. It is part of the international Euroconsumers group.
Deco publishes comparative tests of products and services (from insurance policies to supermarket prices), lobbies for consumer-friendly legislation, and runs a mediation service that helps resolve disputes between consumers and companies. It also operates helplines during crises — such as severe weather events — to advise on insurance claims, billing disputes, and emergency consumer rights.
Membership is paid, but Deco's public advocacy and media presence make it a significant voice in Portuguese consumer affairs. Its studies and reports are frequently cited in news coverage of cost-of-living, energy prices, and financial products.
Brent crude is a major international oil price benchmark made up of several light, low-sulfur crude oils produced in the North Sea; its price is quoted in US dollars per barrel. It is one of the two main global benchmarks, alongside West Texas Intermediate (WTI), and is widely used to price shipments to Europe and Africa. Because petrol and diesel in Portugal generally track Brent, a rise in the Brent price usually leads to higher pump prices, higher transport costs, and more expensive goods; one barrel equals 159 litres.
André Ventura, born January 15, 1983, is a lawyer, academic, and Portugal's most prominent far-right leader. He founded Chega ("Enough") in 2019 after his PSD mayoral campaign attacked the Romani community. Chega surged from 1.3% in 2019 to 22.8% in May 2025, becoming parliament's second-largest party and making Ventura Leader of the Opposition.
His platform emphasizes immigration restrictions, law-and-order policies, constitutional reform, and contains inflammatory anti-Romani rhetoric that has triggered multiple discrimination convictions and investigations. Politically classified as far-right by international media, Ventura cultivates alliances with European far-right figures including Marine Le Pen and Santiago Abascal.
The ISP (Imposto sobre Produtos Petrolíferos e Energéticos) is Portugal's excise tax on petroleum and energy products, charged as a fixed amount per liter on petrol, diesel, and other fuels. It is one of the main components of fuel prices at the pump, alongside VAT and the carbon tax (Taxa de Carbono).
The government can adjust ISP rates — temporarily or permanently — to influence fuel prices. Rate cuts are a common policy tool to ease cost-of-living pressures on drivers and transport businesses, though they also reduce government revenue.
For consumers, the ISP is significant because even small changes in the per-liter rate translate into noticeable differences at the pump, particularly for diesel users and commercial transport operators.
