The presidential race continues to stir things up. In a single day, Cotrim found himself involved in two incidents that could damage his aspirations. Ventura is having his Le Pen moment. And there's much more in this newsletter.
Cotrim's dark day and Ventura's faith
Tuesday, 13 January 2026RSS
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Context & Explainers
Populism is a political style that frames politics as a struggle between 'the people' and a corrupt elite, often using simple messaging, charismatic leaders and direct appeals to public sentiment; it can appear on both the left and right. It matters for expats because populist rhetoric or governments can drive quick policy shifts on immigration, taxation and business regulation, so monitoring election campaigns and major reforms helps anticipate changes that could affect residency, work or services.
Iniciativa Liberal and João Cotrim de Figueiredo tend to draw support from urban, economically liberal voters — often professionals, entrepreneurs and higher‑income residents in cities like Lisbon and Porto — who prioritise lower taxes, deregulation and individual freedoms. The party also attracts some younger voters and expatriates who favour pro‑market policies and a smaller state role.
- 2026 Presidential Candidate
- Party: Liberal Initiative (IL) Iniciativa Liberal
- Businessman from Lisbon
- Economic Liberalism, reduced state intervention, pro-Europe
João Fernando Cotrim de Figueiredo (born June 24, 1961, in Lisbon) is a businessman and liberal politician running for Portugal's presidency in the January 18, 2026 election. He grew up in Lisbon, studied Economics at the London School of Economics and earned an MBA from NOVA University Lisbon. He held executive positions at Compal, Nutricafés, Privado Holding, and TVI, and served as president of Turismo de Portugal (2013-2016), overseeing tourism industry growth during his tenure. He was elected as the Liberal Initiative's first parliamentary deputy in October 2019, led the party (2019-2023) while it grew from 1 to 8 seats with 5% of votes in 2022, and was elected European Parliament member in 2024. He announced his presidential candidacy in August 2025, backed by the Liberal Initiative.
Political Philosophy:
Cotrim de Figueiredo champions liberal economics—tax reduction, labour market liberalization, and welfare reform—alongside cultural and secular liberalism. His campaign emphasizes "Culture, Knowledge and Growth," positioning himself as representing younger voters alienated by traditional candidates, and explicitly states he expects a "second-round" runoff result. He advocates for a future-prepared Portugal distinct from current political offerings.
André Ventura, born January 15, 1983, is a lawyer, academic, and Portugal's most prominent far-right leader. He founded Chega ("Enough") in 2019 after his PSD mayoral campaign attacked the Romani community. Chega surged from 1.3% in 2019 to 22.8% in May 2025, becoming parliament's second-largest party and making Ventura Leader of the Opposition.
His platform emphasizes immigration restrictions, law-and-order policies, constitutional reform, and contains inflammatory anti-Romani rhetoric that has triggered multiple discrimination convictions and investigations. Politically classified as far-right by international media, Ventura cultivates alliances with European far-right figures including Marine Le Pen and Santiago Abascal.
He announced his 2026 presidential candidacy, polling at 18% alongside independent Admiral Gouveia e Melo. His rise ended Portugal's 50-year resistance to far-right parties.
