A day-four tracking poll after the televised debate shows António José Seguro still ahead in a hypothetical second round with 57.8% but down four percentage points from earlier reads, while André Ventura is also in decline. The main movement is toward blank and null votes — and a persistent 7.5% undecided — suggesting the debate pushed some voters away from both candidates rather than directly to Ventura. Analysts note Seguro appears the more independent figure and that a Ventura victory would have clear consequences for Chega, but any direct boost to the PS from a victory by its preferred candidate is far from assured. Public expectations of a political split after 8 February are already growing.
Tracking poll, second round, day 4: Seguro is the most independent. A possible Ventura victory would always have an impact on Chega
Friday, 30 January 2026RSS
Context & Explainers
Chega ("Enough") is a Portuguese far-right populist party founded in 2019 by André Ventura. It positions itself as an anti-establishment movement against what it calls a "rotten and corrupt system" of PS-PSD dominance. The party surged from 1.3% in 2019 to 22.8% in May 2025, becoming parliament's second-largest force with 60 seats. Chega's core platform emphasizes strict immigration control—ending automatic CPLP residency, deporting non-independent immigrants, implementing job-market quotas, and requiring five-year social security contributions before benefit access. It advocates radical constitutional reform, including reducing parliament to 100 members, abolishing the prime minister position for a presidential system, and dismantling public healthcare. Law-and-order policies include life imprisonment and chemical castration proposals.
The party is defined by inflammatory anti-Romani rhetoric, with Ventura convicted multiple times for discrimination. Chega maintains international alignments with European far-right figures including Marine Le Pen, Santiago Abascal, and Matteo Salvini. Mainstream Portuguese parties, including Prime Minister Luís Montenegro's government, have imposed a cordon sanitaire, refusing coalition with Chega despite its parliamentary strength.
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Other news coverage of this topic
- Democratic humility12:30am, 31 Jan 2026 • Correio da Manhã
- Poll gives victory to Seguro with 57.8% of the vote11:46pm, 30 Jan 2026 • Observador
- Tracking poll, second round, day 4: Seguro and Ventura in decline as trend for blank voting emerges8:52pm, 30 Jan 2026 • CNN Portugal
- Tracking poll, second round, day 4: Seguro loses votes after the debate — not to Ventura, but to blank and null votes8:25pm, 30 Jan 2026 • CNN Portugal
