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Excess mortality in Portugal — worse only during the COVID-19 pandemic

Sunday, 11 January 2026RSS

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Excess mortality in Portugal — worse only during the COVID-19 pandemic

In just over a month, Portugal recorded roughly 3,000 more deaths than normal for this time of year. The so-called “excess mortality”, revealed by figures from the Directorate-General of Health (DGS), has persisted for more than a month, since 6 December, with the arrival of flu and cold weather.

The situation worsened in the first week of January, after the Christmas and New Year festivities, as experts had predicted, and the above-average mortality stopped affecting only the elderly, beginning to affect all ages over 45. With 547 deaths in 24 hours, the peak in mortality occurred on 2 January — to find days with more deaths in Portugal you have to go back to 2021, a year of the COVID-19 pandemic.

DGS figures indicate the worst now appears to have passed, but a few more days are needed to be certain.

Context & Explainers

Excess mortality is the number of deaths above what would be expected based on historical averages (commonly a multi‑year baseline), and it captures deaths directly and indirectly caused by events like epidemics, heatwaves or healthcare disruptions. Portugal’s public health institute INSA (Instituto Nacional de Saúde Doutor Ricardo Jorge) monitors excess mortality to see the broader impact of seasonal illnesses and other stresses on the health system, so a drop in flu cases does not automatically mean overall mortality has returned to normal. Those following public‑health trends should note excess‑mortality figures because they show the pandemic and other factors’ continuing effect on population health.

View full article on CNN Portugal